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Forecast

October 26, 2018/report

October 26, 2018

Summary: The temperature at Sandberg as of 6:00am was 66 degrees at an elevation of 4,100 feet.  The freezing level has jumped up to 14,600 feet over Oakland, indicating a bubble of warm air is moving in aloft.  On the valley floor this morning, temperatures are generally 2 to 6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.  Models show upper level high pressure pushing in from the eastern Pacific while the storm track is running from west to east into the Pacific Northwest.  Temperatures today and Saturday will be anywhere from 8 to 12 degrees above average for late October then will begin to slowly slide downward Sunday as the high weakens in response to a rather robust low moving into Washington and Oregon.  This low will be an inside slider, or, in other words, it will slide southeastward, creating a trough over the Great Basin Tuesday.  As pressures fall over the interior, winds will begin to pick up, possibly as early as Sunday night but more so Monday and possibly Tuesday.  This will cause temperatures to drop down to around seasonal averages possibly as early as Monday and continuing through midweek.

 

Beginning Wednesday, a north/northwest flow will set up aloft around a trough to our east and upper level high pressure just off shore.  This will maintain a dry pattern as the storm track continues to ride up and over high pressure over the eastern Pacific.  In fact, models have been very consistent about a dry pattern through at least the first week in November.  Even the two week outlook is not encouraging as it indicates as much better than even chance of dry weather.

 

So, if it won’t rain, it might as well be nice and nice it shall be.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 84/49/85/50/81 Reedley 84/50/85/51/82 Dinuba 83/48/84/50/81
Porterville 84/51/86/51/83 Lindsay 84/48/85/49/82 Delano 85/52/86/51/83
Bakersfield 85/60/85/59/83 Taft 85/61/86/60/82 Arvin 86/55/86/54/81
Lamont 86/55/86/54/83 Pixley 84/49/85/51/81 Tulare 83/48/85/50/81
Woodlake 84/48/85/49/81 Hanford 85/50/85/52/82 Orosi 83/49/85/50/81

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

46/74

Tuesday

Mostly clear

43/73

Wednesday

Mostly clear

40/75

Thursday

Mostly clear

44/77

Friday

Mostly clear

44/78

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 2 through November 8:  This model is showing the vast majority of the lower 48 receiving above average precipitation.  There is one lone exception, however, and that is California which stands a high possibility of remaining dry with marginally above average temperatures.

 

November:  This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation.  It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well.  As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.

 

November, December January:  According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State.  Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages.  However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest.  Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday morning.  By late Sunday afternoon or evening, winds will increase out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor.  Winds will be out of the northwest Monday at 10 to 15 MPH at times with gusts to 30 MPH possible, mainly along the far west side.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 35%/90%  Bakersfield: 30%/60%

Actual Humidity October 25, 2018: Delano, 87%/34%, Porterville, 94%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 0.97, Parlier 0.84, Blackwell 0.95, Lindcove 0.81, Arvin 0.99, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 0.85, Delano 0.85  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 66, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 69, Delano 61

 

Record Temperatures: 89/35. Average Temperatures: 75/46

Heating Degree Days this Season: 17 -50+-

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for October so far: 65.9 +1.2

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: .10 season. or -0.34  Month to Date: .10 -.34

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.20.  Month to Date: .00 -.20

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:18 am  Sunset: 6:07 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:50

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  81 /  48 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  80 /  51 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  80 /  45 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  82 /  46 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  79 /  54 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  79 /  48 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1652 /  79 /  50 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  80 /  48 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1634 /  79 /  59 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  80 /  50 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.28   229    0.12    21     0.56    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.01     2    0.12    25     0.48    13.11

MERCED                        0.00       T     0    0.15    30     0.50    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       T     0    0.08    15     0.53    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.10    23    0.09    20     0.44    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.04    13    0.06    19     0.31    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.20     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.40   174    0.00     0     0.23     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.67   163    0.13    32     0.41    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.03     7    0.08    19     0.43    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.35    87    0.03     8     0.40    13.95

 

Next report:  Saturday, October 27