October 27, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure is located just off the southern California coast this morning. A warm bubble of subsiding air is in place and continues to seal in the valley with hazy conditions and well above average temperatures. As of 6:00 this morning, Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was reporting a balmy temperature of 68. The freezing level above Vandenberg overnight had risen to 15,300 feet, which is more reminiscent of summer rather than late October.
Today, however, will be the warmest we will see until probably next spring, barring something unforeseen. A strong low pressure system is just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and will push inland through Washington and Oregon Sunday with a weak trough extending southward as far as central California. Any precipitation will remain well to our north with only patchy high clouds from time to time marking its passage. The main impact will be much cooler temperatures Sunday, but more especially Monday and Tuesday as the valley is flooded with marine air. Low to mid 70s are likely Monday through Wednesday with a number of locations falling into the mid to upper 30s in ag stations, especially north of Kern County, beginning Tuesday morning.
By Wednesday, a large high will be just off the California coast with California just to the east of its main influence. The winds aloft will become north/northwest, allowing for a slow warming trend. Readings could possibly push 80 by next weekend. Overall, however, the main storm track will be well to our north with strong high pressure along the Pacific coast, shielding California from any potential precipitation.
Medium range models this morning do not show any patterns that would bring precipitation to central or southern California but with pleasant daytime temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday with occasional high clouds.
Short Term:
Madera 84/49/79/45/73 | Reedley 84/50/80/44/74 | Dinuba 83/48/80/44/73 | |
Porterville 85/49/81/45/74 | Lindsay 85/48/81/44/74 | Delano 86/51/80/47/73 | |
Bakersfield 86/57/81/54/72 | Taft 85/59/80/55/74 | Arvin 87/54/80/52/75 | |
Lamont 86/53/80/50/73 | Pixley 84/49/80/44/74 | Tulare 83/48/79/43/72 | |
Woodlake 83/48/79/44/74 | Hanford 85/50/80/47/74 | Orosi 83/48/80/43/73 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Mostly clear 40/72 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/74 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 42/78 |
Friday
Mostly clear 44/78 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 46/79 |
Two Week Outlook: November 3 through November 9: This model is showing the vast majority of the lower 48 receiving above average precipitation. There is one lone exception, however, and that is California which stands a high possibility of remaining dry with marginally above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday and Monday will become out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to near 30 MPH possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Monday night through Tuesday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 35%/95% Bakersfield: 30%/65%
Actual Humidity October 26, 2018: Delano, 89%/34%, Porterville, 94%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .94, Parlier .82, Blackwell .92, Lindcove .79, Arvin .98, Orange Cove NA, Porterville .84, Delano .83 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 66, Blackwell 72, Lindcove, 67, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 68, Delano 61
Record Temperatures: 89/35. Average Temperatures: 74/46
Heating Degree Days this Season: 17 -55
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 65.9 +1.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.37 Month to Date: .10 -.37
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.21. Month to Date: .00 -.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:19 am Sunset: 6:06 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 83 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 82 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 82 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 213 0.12 20 0.60 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 2 0.12 24 0.51 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 28 0.54 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 14 0.58 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 21 0.09 19 0.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 12 0.06 18 0.34 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.21 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 167 0.00 0 0.24 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 156 0.13 30 0.43 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 7 0.08 17 0.46 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 81 0.03 7 0.43 13.95
Next report: Monday, October 29