October 29, 2018
Summary: A fairly significant trough of low pressure is moving through the Pacific Northwest at this hour with the weaker portion of the trough moving through northern and central California. A relatively strong push of northwesterly winds is in place from Fresno County north where most locations are reporting winds of between 10 and 15 MPH. That northwest push of air is also being lifted by the Kern County mountains where upslope clouds have developed with a low cloud deck extending over portions of Kern County as far north as the Tulare County line. These clouds may not mix out during the day.
Temperatures will drop significantly today, topping out only in the lower 70s, which actually is very seasonal. The relatively cool weather will continue through Tuesday then a warming trend will set up Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will fall into the 30s at colder frost stations, but no below freezing temperatures are expected.
The trough will be over the interior west by Wednesday as a big high takes shape off the Pacific coast. This will put California under a north/northwest flow. At the surface, a weak off shore flow will develop Wednesday and Thursday, aiding in the warming trend. Temperatures from Thursday on will warm into the upper 70s to near 80 at the warmest locations. A weaker trough will move through the Pacific Northwest later in the weekend, lower temperatures a few degrees. Temperatures, though, will still be marginally above average for November.
Medium range models still do not favor a pattern that would result in precipitation for central California.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Tuesday except mostly cloudy in Kern County this morning. Mostly clear Wednesday and on through Monday of next week with occasional periods of high clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/38/72/37/77 | Reedley 72/39/72/38/76 | Dinuba 71/37/72/37/75 | |
| Porterville 73/38/72/37/77 | Lindsay 73/36/72/36/76 | Delano 73/41/72/40/78 | |
| Bakersfield 72/47/70/47/78 | Taft 72/52/71/50/77 | Arvin 69/42/71/44/78 | |
| Lamont 71/44/71/44/79 | Pixley 72/39/71/38/77 | Tulare 71/37/71/36/76 | |
| Woodlake 72/37/72/37/77 | Hanford 72/39/72/39/77 | Orosi 71/37/70/36/76 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 41/78 |
Friday
Mostly clear 45/81 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 46/79 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 45/79 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/78 |
Two Week Outlook: November 5 through November 11: This model is showing the vast majority of the lower 48 receiving above average precipitation. There is one lone exception, however, and that is California which stands a high possibility of remaining dry with marginally above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through this evening with local gusts to 25 MPH. Winds later this evening will decrease to around 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions by sunrise. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 45%/90% Bakersfield: 40%/75%
Actual Humidity October 28, 2018: Delano, 88%/40%, Porterville, 94%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .90, Parlier .80, Blackwell .88, Lindcove .75, Arvin .94, Orange Cove NA, Porterville .80, Delano .79 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 66, Blackwell 72, Lindcove, 67, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 68, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 88/29. Average Temperatures: 73/46
Heating Degree Days this Season: 17 -67
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 66.0 +1.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.43 Month to Date: .10 -.43
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.25. Month to Date: .00 -.25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:21 am Sunset: 6:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 81 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 81 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 79 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 81 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 188 0.12 18 0.68 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 2 0.12 21 0.57 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 23 0.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 12 0.68 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 19 0.09 17 0.53 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 10 0.06 15 0.40 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.25 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 154 0.00 0 0.26 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 137 0.13 27 0.49 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 6 0.08 15 0.52 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 71 0.03 6 0.49 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, November 30