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Forecast

November 1, 2018/report

November 1, 2018

Summary: High pressure in the  mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is centered roughly 500 miles to the west of the central coast.  California is on the far eastern flank of this high.  The clockwise flow around this feature has created a northerly flow aloft.  Embedded within this flow are periods of high clouds which will be visible from time to time, but skies will generally be clear for the next several days.  The off shore flow, which has been prevalent over the past 36 hours, is  now ending with generally light winds, even over the Kern County mountains.  A warm air inversion is certainly evident above the valley floor.  Many of the ag stations this morning have fallen into the low 40s, but Pacheco Pass is only 1,000 feet higher and is reporting a temperature of 63 degrees as of 6:00am.

 

The off shore high will remain in place for at least the next week or so with generally a dry northwest flow aloft.   No rain is officially in sight as of this time, but one model is suggesting a deep trough of low pressure will approach the northern and central California coast about Veteran’s Day with even a chance of showers about the 12 and 13 of the month.  The two week model, however, still points to dry weather with above average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high, thin clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday with a warming trend.  Mostly clear skies will continue Sunday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 77/42/80/45/78 Reedley 77/43/80/44/79 Dinuba 76/43/80/45/77
Porterville 78/43/80/44/79 Lindsay 78/41/80/44/79 Delano 79/48/82/49/79
Bakersfield 79/50/82/55/81 Taft 80/55/82/55/81 Arvin 80/49/82/51/81
Lamont 79/49/80/51/81 Pixley 78/43/80/45/79 Tulare 77/42/81/44/79
Woodlake 77/42/80/45/78 Hanford 78/43/80/45/79 Orosi 77/42/79/45/77

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

47/81

Monday

Mostly clear

46/79

Tuesday

Mostly clear

45/79

Wednesday

Mostly clear

45/78

Thursday

Mostly clear

44/77

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 8 through November 14:  This model continues to show a blocking ridge along the west coast with little chance of precipitation and somewhat above average temperatures.  One model, though, suggests a deep trough of low pressure will move through just after Veteran’s Day for even a chance of showers.  For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and see what trend develops going forward.

 

November:  This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation.  It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well.  As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.

 

November, December January:  According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State.  Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages.  However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest.  Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH for the next week to ten days.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Frost Discussion:  We begin the frost season this year with a very quiet and unthreatening forecast.  Models are all indicating there’s no pattern suggesting particularly cold weather for the foreseeable future. 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 30%/90%  Bakersfield: 25%/65%

Actual Humidity October 31, 2018: Delano, 84%/22% Porterville, 94%/20%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%  tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .91, Parlier .75, Blackwell .88, Lindcove .70, Arvin .90, Orange Cove NA, Porterville .76, Delano .76  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 65, Blackwell 71, Lindcove, 67, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 68, Delano 61

 

Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 72/45

Heating Degree Days this Season: 31- -74

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for October so far: 65.4 +1.9

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: .10 season. or -0.53  Month to Date: .10 -.53

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.30.  Month to Date: .00 -.30

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:24 am  Sunset: 6:01 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:37

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  77 /  44 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  73 /  50 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  73 /  43 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  75 /  37 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  76 /  49 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  74 /  45 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1658 /  73 /  45 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  75 /  43 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /  72 /  54 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  74 /  46 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.28   156    0.12    15     0.82    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.01     1    0.12    18     0.68    13.11

MERCED                        0.00       T     0    0.15    19     0.81    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       T     0    0.08     9     0.88    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.10    16    0.09    14     0.63    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.04     8    0.06    12     0.50    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.30     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.40   133    0.00     0     0.30     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.67   116    0.13    22     0.58    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.03     5    0.09    15     0.62    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.35    58    0.03     5     0.60    13.95

 

Next report:  Thursday, November/PM