November 2, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure which 24 hours ago was located about 500 miles to our west has edged closer to the coast, meaning pressures aloft have risen a bit. The freezing level this morning has jumped back to 14,500 feet. The result will be temperatures a good ten to twelve degrees above average today. The high will begin to flatten out over the weekend as storms move through the Pacific Northwest then dive into the Great Basin. One such occurrence will take place Monday with the only impact on the valley being somewhat cooler temperatures and possibly some gusty winds along the west side of the valley. This will be a rather short summary as there is just not a whole lot to report in this mundane weather pattern. The bottom line is, the eastern Pacific high will be just off the California coast next week with generally a west/northwest flow aloft. We may see some mid and high level clouds from time to time. Otherwise, skies will be generally clear with hazy conditions as a warm air inversion develops after Monday. The two week outlook this morning holds out little hope of precipitation through mid November.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. Mostly clear with occasional high clouds Monday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/44/77/43/78 | Reedley 80/43/76/44/79 | Dinuba 78/42/75/43/78 | |
| Porterville 81/44/77/44/79 | Lindsay 80/43/77/44/79 | Delano 81/46/78/47/78 | |
| Bakersfield 82/54/80/55/81 | Taft 80/58/78/57/80 | Arvin 82/50/81/50/81 | |
| Lamont 82/49/80/50/81 | Pixley 80/44/76/45/79 | Tulare 79/43/75/43/77 | |
| Woodlake 80/44/75/44/78 | Hanford 81/44/77/44/79 | Orosi 80/43/77/44/78 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 46/76 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 46/77 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 44/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 44/75 |
Friday
Mostly clear 44/74 |
Two Week Outlook: November 8 through November 14: This model continues to show a blocking ridge along the west coast with little chance of precipitation and somewhat above average temperatures. One model, though, suggests a deep trough of low pressure will move through just after Veteran’s Day for even a chance of showers. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and see what trend develops going forward.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday night. Winds will be light Monday but with the possibility of gusty westerly winds along the far west side of the valley, diminishing Monday evening.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost Discussion: We begin the frost season this year with a very quiet and unthreatening forecast. Models are all indicating there’s no pattern suggesting particularly cold weather for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity November 1, 2018: Delano, 82%/26% Porterville, 93%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .90, Parlier .74, Blackwell .88, Lindcove .69, Arvin .88, Orange Cove NA, Porterville .75, Delano .75 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 63, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 65, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 88/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 36- -77
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 60.0 +2.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.56 Month to Date: .00 -.03
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.32. Month to Date: .00 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 Parlier, 5 Arvin, 0 Shafter, Stratford, 6 Madera two, 0 Lindcove, 0 Porterville, 7 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:25 am Sunset: 6:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 78 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 75 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 76 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 76 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 77 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 74 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 147 0.12 14 0.87 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.12 17 0.72 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 17 0.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 9 0.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 15 0.09 14 0.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 7 0.06 11 0.55 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.32 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 125 0.00 0 0.32 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 110 0.13 21 0.61 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 5 0.09 14 0.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 55 0.03 5 0.64 13.95
Next report: Friday, November 2/pm