Summary: The next off shore wind event is in its beginning stages. Surface high pressure is currently building over the Great Basin behind a low which has moved into the Four Corners region. A sharp high is again building along the Pacific coast all the way into southern Alaska and northwest Canada. This will generate a north to slightly northeast flow which will aid surface high pressure in cranking up the Santa Anas over the Kern County mountains with strong winds also over the high Sierra. Some high resolution models this morning are indicating there is a chance of these winds moving downslope off the Tehachapis and into the Kern County portion of the valley floor. If this does occur, locations at greatest risk will be Taft to the west to where Highway 58 moves into the Tehachapi Mountains where gusts over 40 MPH cannot be ruled out there with strong gusts also near the base of the Grapevine.
From this afternoon through early Monday, pressure differences will be at their greatest. That’s when the risk factor will be its highest. How far out into the valley these winds extend is a difficult call. I would put the chance of these winds hitting the valley floor at about 40% or so. The sidebar to all this is very dry air moving into the valley…where the air is already dry. Dew points this morning are 2 to 4 degrees lower than they were 24 hours ago. So, local areas of frost will certainly be possible Monday and Tuesday mornings. More on that below.
Another ridge of upper level high pressure will build along the coast Thursday and Friday and will dominate our pattern through the weekend. The new two week model is still pretty much in neutral with equal chances of above or below average precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Wednesday. Mostly clear skies continuing Wednesday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/32/70/33/70 | Reedley 70/31/70/33/71 | Dinuba 68/32/69/33/71 | |
| Porterville 70/33/70/34/71 | Lindsay 69/31/70/32/70 | Delano 69/34/70/35/72 | |
| Bakersfield 71/43/72/41/72 | Taft 70/48/72/46/72 | Arvin 72/42/72/35/72 | |
| Lamont 71/40/72/41/72 | Pixley 69/32/70/32/71 | Tulare 68/31/70/32/70 | |
| Woodlake 69/32/70/32/70 | Hanford 69/33/70/34/70 | Orosi 69/31/70/33/70 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 35/71 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/72 |
Friday
Mostly clear 37/75 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 38/73 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/72 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23: This model still carries a low chance of precipitation for central California. However, it’s not quite as adamant as the string of previous model runs. The best way to word this is that there will be a low chance of precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 7 MPH north of a Kern/Tulare county line through Tuesday with extended periods of near calm conditions. This afternoon, as pressures tighten up between the coast and the interior, strong Santa Ana winds will cover most of the Kern County mountains, possibly invading portions of the Kern County region of the valley floor. If this occurs at all, winds of 15 to 30 MPH would not be a surprise with much stronger gusts possible near areas by the bottom of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere. It’s possible these winds could make it as far north as Bakersfield where they would likely be in the 15 to 25 MPH range, rapidly dying off as they approach the Tulare County line. The pressure difference will be at it’s greatest late this afternoon through Monday, therefore that’s the time of highest risk. I would put the chance of significant wind at around 30% to 40% near the base of the mountains and a little lower farther out into the valley. By midday Monday, pressure differences will have relaxed enough for light winds to return. Expect light winds Monday night and beyond.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: We are in the beginning stages of another strong off shore flow which will peak late this afternoon through early Monday. Downslope winds trickling off the Sierra Nevada may reach the valley floor. If they do, lower dew points will mix down, creating a greater risk of frost in some areas. South of the Kern/Tulare County line, dew points could get extremely low due to Santa Ana winds which may or may not reach the valley floor. We should have a better handle on that this afternoon as dew points could get extremely low in portions of Kern County. They’re already in single digits above the 3,000 foot elevation.
For tonight, we’ll continue with upper 20s to the mid 30s. For now, I’ll also go with upper 20s to mid 30s for Tuesday. The inversion tonight will be fairly weak due to mixing with temperatures at 34 feet about 3 to 5 degrees warmer. Coldest locations tonight and Monday night could drop to 27 to 30 with many locations dipping into the lower 30s. I would anticipate only slight modification coming up over the next few days.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 20s to the lower 30s. Kern: Upper teens to the mid 20s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/70% Bakersfield: 15%/35%
Actual Humidity November 10, 2018: Delano 88%/32%, Porterville, 96%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .86, Parlier .65, Blackwell .81, Lindcove .62, Arvin .77, Orange Cove .72, Porterville .67, Delano .67 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 62, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 63, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 84/31. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 93 -106
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 56.8 +2.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.86 Month to Date: .00 -.33
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.49. Month to Date: .00 -.19
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 26, Parlier, 50 , Arvin, 29 Shafter, 58 Stratford, 37, Delano 42, Lindcove, 25, Porterville, 70 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:34 am Sunset: 4:52 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 68 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 70 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 68 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 96 0.17 13 1.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.25 23 1.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.17 13 1.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 6 1.31 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 10 0.10 10 0.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 4 0.06 6 0.95 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 4 0.49 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 89 0.00 0 0.45 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 71 0.32 34 0.94 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.21 22 0.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 35 0.04 4 0.99 13.95
Next report: Sunday, November 11/pm