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Forecast

November 12, 2018/pm report

November 12, 2018

Summary: The off shore flow over southern and central California continues this afternoon, but is beginning to weaken.  The wind velocity at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine was gusting to 40 MPH this past hour and peaked earlier this afternoon at 48 MPH.  High resolution models indicate the pressure difference necessary for these winds will slowly decrease tonight.  The off shore flow will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will be a  much weaker version.

 

We keep talking about chilly overnight temperatures, as well, which sounds like we’re talking about a cold air mass but that simply isn’t the case.  We’re talking about a desert type of air mass with dew points on the valley floor ranging from the low 20s to the low 30s.  this will allow temperatures tonight to again chill on a fairly widespread basis with many locations outside the urban areas in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Once we get past Wednesday morning, incremental moderation will occur as daytime highs struggle into the mid 70s and overnight lows, generally speaking, lowering into the low to mid 30s north of Kern County and the mid 30s to the lower 40s in Kern County.  Readings similar to that can be expected through the weekend, though some high, thin clouds may show up over the weekend and could result in slightly higher temperatures than expected.

 

Dry weather will continue until about November 22.  Models are a bit more definitive this afternoon in showing a low pressure system into California.  The greatest possibility of significant precipitation will be south of the Kern County mountains.  The past few days,  models have been varying considerably on a particular pattern but seem to favor one that would result in a juicy southwesterly flow aloft with plenty of cold air moving down from the north or northwest.  For now, we’ll just leave it at that and tweak this as we move forward.

 

Forecast: It will be mostly clear through Wednesday.  Generally clear skies will continue Wednesday night through Friday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 30/70/31/70 Reedley 29/69/29/70 Dinuba 28/68/28/70
Porterville 29/70/28/71 Lindsay 28/70/28/71 Delano 31/70/31/70
Bakersfield 39/71/40/72 Arvin 31/72/31/72 Taft 45/72/43/71
Lamont 34/71/33/71 Pixley 29/68/29/69 Tulare 28/68/29/69
Woodlake 30/69/30/70 Hanford 30/68/30/70 Orosi 29/68/29/69

 

Winds: Winds north of Kern County will be generally less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.  It’s possible a few locations near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains may experience gusty southeasterly winds over the next few hours, but they should generally be ending.  Winds Tuesday through Thursday will either be very light to calm.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.

 

Frost Information: There were quite a few locations this  morning in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  Dew points are generally down on the average of 2 degrees along the west side in Kern County and varies somewhat in Tulare County.  For now, I’m anticipating overnight lows to be very similar to last night’s with colder spots, especially north of Kern County, chilling to 28 degrees with coldest riverbottom and similar locations down to 26 to 29 degrees.  Most flatland terrain will generally be in the 28 to 31 degree range with low to mid 30s being the norm on hillsides.

 

The inversion tonight will range from 3 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and another 2 degrees of moderation will come up Wednesday morning as the inversion tightens up a bit.

 

The overall atmosphere once we get past Wednesday night will only very slowly begin to moisten up and by that, I mean recoveries of 1 to 3 degrees per night.  By the weekend, we should be in pretty good shape with  only the coldest locations in the lower 30s.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

29

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

29

McFarland

28

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

28

Exeter

27

Famoso

30

Madera

29

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

32

Arvin

31

Lamont

34

Plainview

30

Mettler

34

Edison

31

Maricopa

31

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next Report: Tuesday morning/November 13