November 12, 2018
Summary: The off shore flow over southern and central California continues this afternoon, but is beginning to weaken. The wind velocity at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine was gusting to 40 MPH this past hour and peaked earlier this afternoon at 48 MPH. High resolution models indicate the pressure difference necessary for these winds will slowly decrease tonight. The off shore flow will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will be a much weaker version.
We keep talking about chilly overnight temperatures, as well, which sounds like we’re talking about a cold air mass but that simply isn’t the case. We’re talking about a desert type of air mass with dew points on the valley floor ranging from the low 20s to the low 30s. this will allow temperatures tonight to again chill on a fairly widespread basis with many locations outside the urban areas in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Once we get past Wednesday morning, incremental moderation will occur as daytime highs struggle into the mid 70s and overnight lows, generally speaking, lowering into the low to mid 30s north of Kern County and the mid 30s to the lower 40s in Kern County. Readings similar to that can be expected through the weekend, though some high, thin clouds may show up over the weekend and could result in slightly higher temperatures than expected.
Dry weather will continue until about November 22. Models are a bit more definitive this afternoon in showing a low pressure system into California. The greatest possibility of significant precipitation will be south of the Kern County mountains. The past few days, models have been varying considerably on a particular pattern but seem to favor one that would result in a juicy southwesterly flow aloft with plenty of cold air moving down from the north or northwest. For now, we’ll just leave it at that and tweak this as we move forward.
Forecast: It will be mostly clear through Wednesday. Generally clear skies will continue Wednesday night through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 30/70/31/70 | Reedley 29/69/29/70 | Dinuba 28/68/28/70 | |
Porterville 29/70/28/71 | Lindsay 28/70/28/71 | Delano 31/70/31/70 | |
Bakersfield 39/71/40/72 | Arvin 31/72/31/72 | Taft 45/72/43/71 | |
Lamont 34/71/33/71 | Pixley 29/68/29/69 | Tulare 28/68/29/69 | |
Woodlake 30/69/30/70 | Hanford 30/68/30/70 | Orosi 29/68/29/69 |
Winds: Winds north of Kern County will be generally less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thursday. It’s possible a few locations near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains may experience gusty southeasterly winds over the next few hours, but they should generally be ending. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will either be very light to calm.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Information: There were quite a few locations this morning in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Dew points are generally down on the average of 2 degrees along the west side in Kern County and varies somewhat in Tulare County. For now, I’m anticipating overnight lows to be very similar to last night’s with colder spots, especially north of Kern County, chilling to 28 degrees with coldest riverbottom and similar locations down to 26 to 29 degrees. Most flatland terrain will generally be in the 28 to 31 degree range with low to mid 30s being the norm on hillsides.
The inversion tonight will range from 3 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and another 2 degrees of moderation will come up Wednesday morning as the inversion tightens up a bit.
The overall atmosphere once we get past Wednesday night will only very slowly begin to moisten up and by that, I mean recoveries of 1 to 3 degrees per night. By the weekend, we should be in pretty good shape with only the coldest locations in the lower 30s.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
28 |
Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
26 |
Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
Arvin
31 |
Lamont
34 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
34 |
Edison
31 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next Report: Tuesday morning/November 13