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Forecast

November 13, 2018/report

November 13, 2018

Summary:  High pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is currently moving slowly into the western U.S.  There is a trough of low pressure in the  Gulf of Alaska with a trough extending southward over the central Pacific.  There’s not much weather with this trough, but there  is a considerable amount of  high clouds which will try to add a bit of interest to the sky.  That’s difficult to do due to haze and smoke from the various fires.  This trough will move inland tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Any precipitation will be well to our north.

 

Upper level high pressure will again firm up Friday through Sunday, dominating the pattern well into next week.  Models are quite inconclusive about a pattern change for later next week which, realistically, could bring rain back to central California.  Some kind of low is projected to affect central and southern California from the 23 and beyond.  I wouldn’t venture a guess at this time on the possibility of rain or how much, but the two week model that came out yesterday is also pointing in the same direction and that’s that there is an increasing chance of rain for California, especially southern California, with above average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear and hazy through Friday with periods of high clouds at times.  Mostly clear Friday night through Monday and continued hazy.  Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 67/33/70/33/69 Reedley 67/32/70/33/70 Dinuba 67/30/70/32/68
Porterville 68/33/68/33/69 Lindsay 68/31/70/31/71 Delano 69/34/70/34/70
Bakersfield 69/40/70/40/71 Taft 70/46/71/45/71 Arvin 71/35/72/36/72
Lamont 70/34/70/35/70 Pixley 67/31/69/31/69 Tulare 67/30/68/30/69
Woodlake 68/32/68/32/69 Hanford 68/32/68/33/69 Orosi 67/32/70/31/70

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

36/72

Saturday

hazy

37/72

Sunday

Hazy

37/73

Monday

Hazy/partly cloudy

42/68

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

43/69

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 20 through November 26:  This model indicates the best chance of rain will occur from the 23 or so on, especially over the southern half of California.  We could see some juicy subtropical moisture move in in association with a deep trough of low pressure along the west coast.  For now, we’ll leave it at that and mention the usual above average temperatures.

 

November:  This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation.  It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well.  As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.

 

November, December January:  According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State.  Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages.  However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest.  Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.

 

Winds:  Expect winds of approximately 7 MPH or less through Friday.

 

Rain:  Actually, the first hints of rain are manifesting themselves on paper and there are actually a few trends developing.  The two week  model, for example, is indicating a signature for rain, especially over the southern  half of the state, beginning about the 23 or so.  Other models range from a small chance of light showers to possibly something resembling a winter storm.  We are beginning to move deeper into the rainfall season so we’re way overdue.

Frost Discussion:  Most locations, if  not all, will be above 32 degrees tonight.  It’s possible that if the clouds thin out enough, a few riverbottoms could dip into the lower 30s.  still, the fact remains that the air mass stuck on the valley floor is quite dry, so lows in the lower 30s in the coldest regions will continue to be a fact of life unless, by chance, the cloud cover thickens up during the night.  At any rate, long range models don’t show anything alarming for frost or a freeze for central California.

The inversion tonight will be fairly strong.  Temperatures at 34 feet will generally range between 4 and 8 degrees higher with continued good inversions for the rest of the week.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

33

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

33

Strathmore

32

McFarland

31

Ducor

34

Tea Pot Dome

34

Lindsay

31

Exeter

32

Famoso

33

Madera

33

Belridge

34

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

33

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

33

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing                

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 20s to the lower 30s.  Kern: Low 20s to the lower 30s.

Humidity: Visalia: 15%/80%  Bakersfield: 10%/55%

Actual Humidity November 12, 2018: Delano NA%/NA%, Porterville, 96%/18%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .78, Parlier .61, Blackwell .74, Lindcove .58, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .66, Delano .65  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 60, Blackwell 65, Lindcove, 64, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 57

 

Record Temperatures: 83/28. Average Temperatures: 66/40

Heating Degree Days this Season: 121 -101

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 57.3 +1.9

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: .10 season. or -0.94  Month to Date: .00 -.41

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.53

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 47,  Parlier, 75 ,  Arvin, 50 Shafter, 84  Stratford, 61, Delano 66, Lindcove, 47,  Porterville, 98.   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:36 am  Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:16

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  74 /  35 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  72 /  30 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  74 /  38 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  71 /  34 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1553 /  73 /  35 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  71 /  35 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  69 /  45 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  66 /  37 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.28    88    0.17    12     1.45    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.01     1    0.25    22     1.16    13.11

MERCED                        0.00       T     0    0.17    13     1.34    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       T     0    0.08     6     1.39    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.10    10    0.10    10     1.04    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.04     4    0.06     6     1.01    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.02     4     0.53     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.40    82    0.00     0     0.49     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.67    65    0.32    31     1.03    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.03     3    0.21    20     1.03    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.35    32    0.04     4     1.08    13.95

 

Next report:  Tuesday, November 13/pm