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Forecast

November 13, 2018/pm report

November 13, 2018

Summary: Surface pressures remain higher over the interior west than off shore.  This will mean the Santa Anas will continue over southern California.  Some of these winds continue to leak down to near the bottom of the Grapevine where, at last report, winds were out of the south at 20, gusting to 25 MPH.  Winds are gusting to near 50 MPH at the top of Grapevine Peak.  Dew points on the valley floor under normal circumstances would be almost critically low, ranging from the upper teens to the upper 20s all the way up and down the line with humidity values as of 1:00pm averaging in the upper teens to the upper 20s.  However, on the flip side, we have high clouds moving in from the west/northwest in association with a weak trough of low pressure stretching from the southern Canadian prairies to off shore central California.  These clouds will be evident tonight to one extent or another and should be thick enough to slow the radiational cooling process, thus maintaining safe overnight low temperatures.

 

Upper level high pressure currently overhead will shift eastward as the trough off shore moves inland after midnight, only to be replaced by a weaker version of high pressure which will keep temperatures marginally above average during the day and a tad colder than average during the overnight hours.

 

For the pattern Friday through Sunday, models indicate a weak flow in the upper atmosphere over California, so no real significant areas of low pressure are expected to evolve.  By the time we get to about the twenty third of the month, models are still cautiously optimistic about a change in the pattern which could result in precipitation.  More storms could possibly follow beyond that date.  For now, we’re not forecasting a big series of storms, just that the medium range models are suggesting a more favorable pattern for Pacific storms to move in.  in other words, the great blocking ridge will not be nearly as dominant.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Wednesday morning.  Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Friday with occasional high clouds.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday.  Increasing cloudiness Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 33/70/32/69 Reedley 35/70/36/69 Dinuba 33/71/34/70
Porterville 33/71/33/70 Lindsay 33/70/33/69 Delano 36/70/35/70
Bakersfield 42/71/42/71 Arvin 38/71/38/70 Taft 46/71/46/70
Lamont 40/71/40/70 Pixley 34/70/34/69 Tulare 34/71/34/70
Woodlake 35/70/33/69 Hanford 33/70/34/69 Orosi 33/70/32/69

 

Winds: Expect winds either at or less than 7 MPH through Friday with occasional periods of near calm winds.

 

Rain: Dry weather will continue for at least the next seven days.  Around the 23 or 24, models continue to  hint at a possible major change which would result in the elimination of the blocking high we’ve had for the better part of the past ten years.  One model places a fairly deep low near San Francisco about the 24 which could result in widespread precipitation and strong, gusty winds.  There would appear to be other opportunities for Pacific storms to move in from the Gulf of Alaska or even milder Pacific systems.  I am certainly not ready to go crazy over this and predict significant rain for the last ten days or so of November.  For now, it’s just a waiting game to see what trends develop.  There’s really few trends at this point, but the ones that are are pointing towards an increasing chance of wet weather.

 

Frost Information: All locations will be above freezing tonight.  There appears to be enough high level cloud cover moving in from the west/northwest to maintain above freezing conditions tonight, but only slightly above in the coldest, wind sheltered, low lying locations.  We lucked out on this one as dew points are as low as we’ve seen so far this season, ranging from the upper teens to the upper twenties with humidity values ranging from about 12% to the lower 20s.

 

On Thursday morning, we may see a better chance of local frost as the bulk of the current cloud cover will have moved off to the east.  However, it’s also possible that by then, dew points will have crept up.  At any rate, I don’t see anything dangerous for now.

 

Medium range models do not suggest a pattern that would result in freeze conditions, although we could see air masses move in from the Gulf of Alaska later in the month.

                   

 

Next Report: Wednesday morning/November 14