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Forecast

November 14, 2018/report

November 14, 2018

Summary: Stagnant conditions prevail over the great valley of California with a combination of haze and smoke pouring into our lungs.  But at least temperatures are pleasant with most locations teasing the 70 degree mark by the time the day is over.  As the high strengthens a tad over the next 72 hours, a few of the warmest locations could struggle into the mid 70s.  The high will marginally weaken over the weekend, allowing a slight cooling trend, especially once we get into the Sunday/Monday time frame.  However, what we need is an air mass exchange and I don’t believe that will occur until the day before Thanksgiving, if we’re lucky.

 

Models for the second half of next week are showing some kind of low pressure system affecting California.  Some just show a fairly strong trough moving through.  We’d get some pretty decent rains with a dry pattern returning thereafter.  One model shows a low  moving inland around San Francisco while another center is moving through the Pacific Northwest.  Another solution is a strong low just off the northern California coast moving slowly southeastward through central California.  If that model comes to fruition, the potential would be there for heavy precipitation with possibly even some decent rains on the valley floor.  There could even be some strong winds if things settle in just right.

 

After the Wednesday/Thursday period, most models show a trough of low pressure remaining over the interior west, putting California between the usual eastern Pacific high and the trough just to the east of the Sierra.  This pattern would not favor rain, but the northwest flow aloft accompanying this pattern typically results in low clouds stacking into the south valley and east side with much higher dew points.  For now, we have no choice but to leave it at that and eventually see which model solution gets the Academy Award.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Sunday night.  Partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday morning.  Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 32/70/34/71 Reedley 33/69/33/71 Dinuba 31/68/31/70
Porterville 32/71/33/71 Lindsay 30/69/31/71 Delano 35/71/36/72
Bakersfield 40/72/42/73 Arvin 35/72/35/73 Taft 45/72/46/72
Lamont 37/72/38/73 Pixley 32/69/34/71 Tulare 31/69/32/71
Woodlake 32/70/33/71 Hanford 32/71/33/71 Orosi 31/69/32/71

 

Winds: Expect winds either at or less than 7 MPH through Saturday with occasional periods of near calm winds.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through at least Tuesday night.  There are varying model solutions to the Wednesday through Friday time frame.  Most give at least a small chance of light showers during this time frame while a few others actually involve a significant snow event over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada plus rain over the valley.  Beyond the Thursday night/Friday time frame, a trough of low pressure will remain over the Rocky Mountain region with California stuck between that system and our old friend, the eastern Pacific high.  This would put us in a northwest flow with all of the precipitation moving southeastward to our east and we would remain dry but with near to somewhat below average temperatures.

 

Frost Information: Temperatures this afternoon are anywhere from 1 to 7 degrees lower than yesterday at this time.  Dew points have risen anywhere from 2 to 9 degrees.  The highest amount risen is in Kern County.  Even further north, 2 to 3 degrees of improvement in dew points are noted.  It is evident there’s definitely a bit more moisture in the lowest level of the atmosphere which should keep most locations above freezing tonight with coldest readings down to 30 to 31 or so, but for this forecast we’ll keep matters out of the upper 20s.

 

I would anticipate similar conditions for Friday morning with slight moderation as we move through the weekend.  Daytime highs Friday through Sunday should begin to move up a bit, dragging dew points up a bit more, as well.  As a more active pattern sets up about Wednesday, readings will remain above the freezing mark.

 

The inversion tonight will be a good one with readings anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.

                   

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

33

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

32

McFarland

33

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

33

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

32

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next Report: Thursday morning/November 15