November 15, 2018
Summary: Coldest locations are again right near or a degree or two below freezing as the overall dingy air mass, which remains very dry, is still in place. Only slight variations from day to day will occur with daytime temperatures marginally above average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.
In the big picture, upper level high pressure covers most of the western U.S. High and mid level clouds may be visible from time to time as they overrun the high. The clouds, however, are not associated with any weather feature. The air aloft remains quite warm for this time of year. The freezing level overnight was 12,100 feet, close to where it has been the past few days.
Some kind of shift is due to begin Monday. Some models show a low pressure system moving on shore Tuesday night and Wednesday, just in time for Thanksgiving. It would be a big blessing, however, if this system had precipitation associated with it. Sadly, other models are backing off on the possibility of rain until around the 26th or so when a very active storm track is projected to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California with central California under a strong westerly flow right underneath this zone of active weather. That would at least provide a minimal chance of showers from Fresno County north. Since there’s no real signature on models for a wet or dry pattern, we’ll go with a chance of rain, mainly north, beginning about the 26th and lasting through the 29th.
Forecast: Other than periods of high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Sunday night. Variable cloudiness at times Monday through Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with only a slight chance of showers, continuing Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/32/70/31/70 | Reedley 69/31/71/32/70 | Dinuba 68/31/69/32/69 | |
| Porterville 71/32/71/33/72 | Lindsay 71/31/71/32/71 | Delano 70/34/71/35/70 | |
| Bakersfield 72/44/73/45/72 | Taft 71/50/72/50/72 | Arvin 73/39/73/38/73 | |
| Lamont 72/38/71/38/70 | Pixley 70/32/71/33/71 | Tulare 68/30/71/31/70 | |
| Woodlake 69/33/71/34/70 | Hanford 70/33/71/34/70 | Orosi 69/33/71/35/70 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 38/71 |
Monday
Variable clouds 44/68 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 45/72 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 45/70 |
Thanksgiving
Slight chance of showers 38/71 |
Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 28: This model indicates the best chance of rain will occur from the 23 or so on, especially over the southern half of California. We could see some juicy subtropical moisture move in in association with a deep trough of low pressure along the west coast. For now, we’ll leave it at that and mention the usual above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Expect winds of approximately 7 MPH or less through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Tuesday. The pattern beginning Wednesday, or in other words, for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend is very unclear. Yesterday at this time, I was leaning towards rain in the forecast but I must say some models have really backed off on that possibility and instead show a blocking high along the California coast. For now, only a slight chance of showers seems like a good bet for the forecast for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. There may be a better chance coming up about the 26th through the 29th as some models show a very active pattern pounding the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California with central California just south of the rain line. Much will change in projections between now and then, but at least it appears northern California may pick up some desperately needed rain towards the end of the month.
Frost Discussion: Lows this morning in the coldest locations north of Kern County chilled into the lower 30s. To the south, some high clouds mixed in during the night, maintaining mid 30s to lower 40s south of the Kern/Tulare County line. A few locations north of that line also reaped the blessings. The old dingy and very dry air mass is still ensconced right on the valley floor. Dew points are starting out the day anywhere from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. If all goes as planned, daytime highs the next few days will be just a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows could be kept up by some high clouds the next few days, but even under clear skies, safe conditions will prevail.
Some kind of change will occur about the middle of next week. For now, though, there’s no model suggesting a particularly cold air mass moving through California for at least the next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
33 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
33 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Mid 20s to the lower 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: %% Bakersfield %%
Actual Humidity November 14, 2018: Delano 92%/16% Porterville, 81%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .70, Parlier .58, Blackwell .70, Lindcove .55, Arvin .74, Orange Cove .64, Porterville .62, Delano .60 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 60, Blackwell 64, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 59, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 65/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 149 -98
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 56.4 +1.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -1.01 Month to Date: .00 -.48
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.57. Month to Date: .00 -.27
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 65, Parlier, 98 , Arvin, 65 Shafter, 104 Stratford, 80, Delano 87, Lindcove, 67, Porterville, 122. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:38 am Sunset: 4:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 65 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 82 0.24 15 1.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.26 21 1.25 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.17 12 1.41 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 5 1.46 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 9 0.10 9 1.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 4 0.06 6 1.08 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 4 0.57 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 77 0.00 0 0.52 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 60 0.32 29 1.12 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.21 19 1.09 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 30 0.04 3 1.16 13.95
Next report: Thursday, November 15/pm