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Forecast

November 15, 2018/pm report

November 15, 2018

Summary: Mostly clear and hazy conditions prevail this afternoon, which is pretty much the way it will continue to be through at least Monday.  Upper level high pressure stretches from northern Mexico northward through the western U.S. and up into the Pacific Northwest.  The winds aloft are very weak and are out of the northwest.  The air above the valley floor continues to be quite warm for this time of year with the freezing level at 12,100 feet.  Occasional high clouds will overrun the high from time to time, but otherwise the usual hazy sunshine will continue.

 

We keep looking for an opportunity for rain next week.  I had though Wednesday would be the time of greatest potential.  For now, that seems to be going out the window as more and more model projections show a high covering the eastern Pacific and into California.  The high will be rather flat, so that should allow temperatures to come down a tad during the day and possibly be milder at night due to somewhat higher dew points.  We may have to wait towards the end of the month for a legitimate chance of measurable rain.  If you consider every day but one in October was dry and every day so far in November, it doesn’t bode well for optimism for the rainfall season as a whole.

 

The two week model, though, still hangs onto the idea of a low moving just off shore off the central coast about the 26th then moving into southern California the 27th and 28th.  These models go out quite a ways so their accuracy rate is always in question, but as far as rain is concerned, that’s really all I have to go on for now.

 

Forecast: Other than high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Monday.  Partly cloudy Monday night through Thanksgiving Day.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 32/72/33/71 Reedley 33/71/34/71 Dinuba 30/70/31/70
Porterville 32/71/33/71 Lindsay 31/72/32/72 Delano 34/72/35/72
Bakersfield 43/75/42/72 Arvin 39/75/40/75 Taft 51/73/48/72
Lamont 40/74/41/74 Pixley 33/71/34/71 Tulare 31/71/32/70
Woodlake 32/72/32/71 Hanford 33/71/34/70 Orosi 31/71/32/70

 

Winds: Expect winds either at or less than 7 MPH through Sunday with occasional periods of near calm winds.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather to continue for at least the next seven to ten days.

 

Frost Information: Coldest locations tonight will generally range from 30 to 33 degrees.  There may be occasional periods of high clouds which will probably be too thin to have much impact.  Most locations that have flat topography will end up in the low to mid 30s tonight, similar to the past few nights.  In Kern County, most locations will be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

We continue to be stuck in neutral as far as our weather pattern is concerned and I see very little change through at least Monday with weak winds aloft and high pressure continuing to cover the western states and off shore.  With dew points only slightly higher, most nights after tonight will be similar with more modification next week as more cloud cover will be observed after Monday but no rain is expected.

 

Daytime highs from Thanksgiving on will be a bit cooler due to increased cloud cover and higher relative humidity.  As discussed above, there’s no pattern out there favoring rain for central California until we move towards the end of the month.  Fortunately, there’s nothing out there that would result in dangerously cold overnight temperatures.  So even though we’ve seen a number of frost nights this month, nothing critical has been observed, or will be observed, through next week, at least.

                   

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

33

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

31

McFarland

31

Ducor

34

Tea Pot Dome

33

Lindsay

30

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

34

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

29

Root creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

31

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

32

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

31

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next Report: Friday morning, November 16