November 16, 2018
Summary: Another morning of lots of haze and cold temperatures. As of 6:00am, most locations in the citrus belt were ranging in the low to mid 30s, just a tad milder in Kern County. A big ridge extends from northern Baja into the Pacific Northwest. If you liked the last few days, you’ll like the next few days, as well. Temperatures during the afternoons will sneak into the lower 70s at most locations, with overnight lows well down into the 30s. a low pressure system will be approaching the northern California coast Tuesday, spreading light showers over northern California. Some models have flip flopped back into showing light precipitation moving into central California, as well. Depending on the model, most are showing precipitation from the Kern County mountains and over points northward. There is no model showing this system as being particularly dynamic with Thanksgiving Day being the timeframe of greatest possibility for measurable precipitation.
More importantly, though, this system will open the storm track into California beginning about the 26th, and I must say there has been a trend for a cold low from the Gulf of Alaska to move southward into California with strong upper level dynamics and plenty of cold air sweeping in behind the system from the north. This storm could potentially result in the first real winter storm of the season with at least locally heavy snow in the mountains and decent amounts of rain on the valley floor. Right now, it appears the 27th through the 29th would be the most likely time frame. This system may lead us into frost concerns towards the end of the month as models show a sharp ridge building northeastward into the Gulf of Alaska with a strong north/south jet stream moving in behind the system which, by then, would be over the interior west. This potential pattern is not a classic freeze situation, but it is potentially a cold one. We’ll study this as we move along. At least for now, it appears winter may actually arrive the last week of November and will hopefully stay for a while.
Forecast: There will be periods of high clouds at times but even so it will be mostly clear and hazy through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon and night. At least a chance of showers will continue Thanksgiving through the evening. Mostly cloudy Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/32/70/33/70 | Reedley 71/33/71//33/69 | Dinuba 69/31/71/31/70 | |
| Porterville 71/32/71/33/70 | Lindsay 72/31/71/32/70 | Delano 73/35/71/35/71 | |
| Bakersfield 73/43/73/45/72 | Taft 71/51/71/52/70 | Arvin 73/36/73/37/72 | |
| Lamont 73/39/73/40/72 | Pixley 71/33/71/34/70 | Tulare 69/31/70/32/69 | |
| Woodlake 70/32/71/33/69 | Hanford 71/33/71/34/70 | Orosi 70/32/70/32/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 38/69 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 41/67 |
Wednesday
PM showers possible 48/68 |
Thanksgiving Day
Light showers possible 50/66 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 48/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 23 through November 29: This model is depicting the greatest risk for showers will be right over central California, in fact it looks like it will have the greatest possibility of rain of any place in the U.S. at that time. This would mainly occur between the 26 and the 29. Temperatures should fall well below average, at least during the last half of this period.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Expect winds of approximately 7 MPH or less through Sunday.
Rain: A few of the models have done somewhat of a flip flop this morning and are back on board with a chance of light showers possibly Wednesday afternoon and Thanksgiving Day. None of the models, however, indicate this will be a significant event, but more of a light shower event. However, models for the 26 through the 29 look very wet. If this pattern comes to pass, they do point to a cold storm digging southward through the Gulf of Alaska and into California with strong cold air dynamics. This could result in heavy snow in the mountains and possibly even some significant rain totals on the valley floor. Depending upon the exact path of this system, even drought stricken southern California could see some precip.
Frost Discussion: Low to mid 30s were widespread again this morning and I see no reason to forecast otherwise through Monday morning. Dew points remain quite low. The only real wild card, minor as it may be, are batches of high clouds which will move over from time to time. It’s possible that on any given night, if these clouds move over in the early morning hours, readings could be marginally warmer than forecast.
Once we get beyond Monday of next week, the combination of a westerly flow aloft and more cloud cover should keep conditions above freezing. A chance of showers even exists Wednesday afternoon and Thanksgiving Day.
The timeframe I’m zeroing in on now is for the 28 and 29 we could see a strong north/south jet stream heading into California along the back side of an exiting system. The potential origins of this air mass could be western Canada. For now, the trajectory of all this is very uncertain this far out. But, I wouldn’t rule out a busy time coming up beginning around the 29 and lasting into early December. For now, all I can do is take a wait and see attitude towards all this and try to nail things down more precisely down the road.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 30%/95% Bakersfield 25%/65%
Actual Humidity November 15, 2018: Delano %/% Porterville, %/%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .66, Parlier .58, Blackwell .68, Lindcove .54, Arvin .73, Orange Cove .65, Porterville .59, Delano .57 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 58, Blackwell 63, Lindcove, 62, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 58, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 81/27. Average Temperatures: 65/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 163 -97
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 56.0 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -1.04 Month to Date: .00 -.51
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.59. Month to Date: .00 -.29
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 76, Parlier, 109 , Arvin, 74 Shafter, 115 Stratford, 91, Delano 97, Lindcove, 79, Porterville, 133. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 30 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 72 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1558 / 71 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 71 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 67 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 80 0.25 16 1.61 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.26 20 1.29 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.17 12 1.44 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 5 1.50 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 9 0.10 9 1.14 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 4 0.06 5 1.11 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 3 0.59 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 74 0.00 0 0.54 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 57 0.32 27 1.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.21 19 1.12 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 29 0.04 3 1.21 13.95
Next report: Friday, November 16/pm