November 21, 2018
Summary: Doppler radar on this Thanksgiving eve is showing numerous showers over northern California with mainly light showers spreading onshore moving from southwest to northeast along the central coast. The cold frontal portion of this storm will move on shore this evening then progress slowly eastward during the course of the night. As the front moves through, periods of rain will accompany it with the typical rain shadows developing along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County. I must say, radar returns off the central coast are not as impressive as I would like at this point. Hopefully this does not portend a drier than expected event. I’m hoping things get rolling as the night wares on.
By just after sunrise Thanksgiving morning, the front should be moving into the Sierra Nevada with showers winding down over the valley floor. This may very well be the last of the precipitation in the south valley for a while as the second system spreads rain over northern California Friday and Friday night with showers spreading only as far south as Fresno County with just a small chance further south.
The heaviest rain will be recorded along the east side of the valley, generally east of Highway 99 and from Madera County southward to a Hanford/Visalia line. South of that line, precipitation amounts will drop off pretty sharply.
Storm number two will head this way Friday and Friday night. What precipitation does fall will be lighter and more scattered. It doesn’t look like a major event for central California.
Upper level high pressure will build over and along the west coast beginning Saturday night and lasting through Wednesday or Thursday of next week. For those of you thinking that this will be the beginning of another long, dry spell…hope springs eternal. Most models this afternoon for the 28th through the sixth of December are showing periodic storms moving from west to east across California. This is an ideal pattern for heavy snow over the high country and on and off precipitation for the Sierra foothills and, to a lesser extent, the valley floor. It’s still way too far away to try to nail down potential precipitation amounts. For now, let’s just say I’m cautiously optimistic this period of time will be most beneficial.
Forecast: Periods of rain spreading south this evening. Periods of rain tonight into the early morning hours Thursday, possibly locally heavy at times in Madera County, eastern Fresno County, and northern Tulare County. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. A chance of light showers again Friday and Friday night, mainly from Fresno northward with only a minimal chance south of Fresno County. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Sunday afternoon with the exception of Kern and Tulare Counties which may remain mostly cloudy through Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Wednesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 47/62/43/58 | Reedley 49/63/44/59 | Dinuba 46/62/43/67 | |
| Porterville 46/63/44/60 | Lindsay 47/62/43/58 | Delano 49/63/46/60 | |
| Bakersfield 52/64/46/61 | Arvin 50/65/47/62 | Taft 52/64/48/61 | |
| Lamont 50/64/45/61 | Pixley 48/63/43/58 | Tulare 46/62/43/57 | |
| Woodlake 49/62/44/58 | Hanford 49/63/43/59 | Orosi 47/62/43/57 | |
Winds: Winds tonight and early thanksgiving morning will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly from Fresno county northward. Winds Thursday afternoon and night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 10 to 15 MPH Friday and Friday night. Winds will be out of the northwest Saturday at 10 to 15 MPH.
Rain: Batches of showers are moving from southwest to northeast into the Coast Range and will begin to affect Kings and Fresno Counties over the next hour or two. For now, the radar returns are not as impressive as I would’ve hoped, but with any luck, over the course of the night as the cold front moves slowly through, things will get rolling. After the morning commute Thanksgiving morning, the rain will drop off significantly as the front moves into western Nevada. This means most of Thanksgiving Day will be dry after all, continuing into Thursday night.
The next challenge will be a new and also well developed low pressure system which will spread precipitation over northern California later Thursday night and Friday, spreading showers down to about Fresno County. For now, it appears the chance of showers in the south valley is pretty minimal. Dry weather will return Saturday and continue through Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
Rainfall amounts in Madera County, eastern Fresno County, and the northern half of Tulare County will hopefully tally up between .33 and .75. Rain shadows will of course develop along the western side of Fresno County and Kings County where rain totals should total .25 to possibly .33. I still believe most of the valley portion of Kern County will record less than .25.
The coming dry spell is not a precursor of things to come. Between about the 28th of this month through December 6th, if all goes as well, we could see multiple chances of measurable rain. A big low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with the jet stream flanked beneath the low, moving from west to east into California. Enhanced precipitation would be expected along the Sierra Nevada and along the west facing slopes of the Coast Range as, theoretically, storms move inland from time to time, interspersed with periods of dry weather.
Frost Information: All locations will be above freezing for the next week to ten days.
Next Report: Thanksgiving morning, November 22/am