November 25, 2018
Summary: Dense fog had no problem forming in various areas on the valley floor. At last report, Fresno was down to ½ mile visibility as was Hanford with Visalia and Madera both down to ¼ of a mile. Where it’s currently foggy, areas of low clouds may remain throughout the day, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties. More fog and low clouds will form tonight where skies are mostly clear, possibly becoming widespread by morning. It may burn off into hazy sunshine Monday afternoon. The weak high at the upper levels of the atmosphere will not last long as a trough of low pressure digs into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Tuesday. There is a slight chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward Tuesday and Tuesday night, but the main event will be later afternoon Wednesday through Thursday evening as an intense Pacific low approaches the northern and central California coast. A couple of models even paint a small atmospheric river of air off the central coast Thursday, showing it moving inland during the afternoon. The potential for heavy precipitation along the Sierra Nevada is certainly there with significant precipitation very likely on the valley floor. However, this system will be accompanied by strong, gusty winds in some areas which will cause rain shadows to form in Kern County and along the west side. More on the wind is discussed below.
The backside of this major storm will slide east of the Sierra Nevada early Friday morning with a chance of lingering showers, especially over the mountain areas, Friday. A new low will develop over the eastern Pacific then slide southeastward, especially over the northern half of California Saturday with much lighter precipitation potential. I must say, some models this morning are showing a more active pattern for California for the first week in December. If you recall, models had backed off and were showing mostly dry weather, but what I’m seeing now is a high developing off the southern California coast with a series of storms possibly moving into northern and central California from time to time from the second through the seventh. It would be nice to tweak this forecast to see if just possibly rainfall totals will rise above average by the time all is said and done.
Forecast: Areas of fog and/or low clouds this morning. Mostly clear this afternoon and on through Monday night. However, skies may remain partly cloudy in Tulare and Kern County through this evening and widespread fog and low clouds are certainly possible Monday morning, especially north of Kern County. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain will become likely sometime Wednesday afternoon then rain, heavy at times, Wednesday night through Thursday evening. A chance of showers for a time Friday. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night with a chance of showers again Saturday into Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/40/65/40/65 | Reedley 63/42/65/41/66 | Dinuba 62/39/63/40/65 | |
| Porterville 62/41/66/43/68 | Lindsay 63/39/65/41/67 | Delano 64/43/67/44/68 | |
| Bakersfield 63/45/67/46/70 | Taft 65/48/68/49/70 | Arvin 63/45/68/45/69 | |
| Lamont 64/44/68/45/70 | Pixley 64/41/67/42/67 | Tulare 63/40/64/41/65 | |
| Woodlake 63/41/64/41/65 | Hanford 63/43/65/42/66 | Orosi 62/40/65/41/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
PM rain 50/68 |
Thursday
Rain, locally heavy 53/65 |
Friday
Chance of showers 44/60 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 41/59 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 38/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 2 through December 8: This model shows a possible wide area of low pressure over the interior west with possibly a northwest flow into California. This would bring marginally below average temperatures. Precipitation during this time frame appears to be marginally likely.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH through Monday night with long periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday through Tuesday night will begin to be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Wednesday with some areas of 15 to 30 MPH Wednesday Thursday with stronger gusts.
This morning’s models are backing off a bit on wind potentials for Kern County and up the west side. Instead of a tightly wound low to our northwest, the storm is looking more like an open wave. That doesn’t eliminate the chance of strong winds, but it does reduce it. The greatest risk for high winds in Kern County will be after midnight Wednesday night and through the day Thursday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Monday night. There will be a minimal chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north Tuesday and Tuesday night, but amounts are expected to be insignificant.
The chance of rain ratchets up Wednesday afternoon, spreading southward into Kern County by evening. Models still show this to be a very potent storm with possibly two to three inches of rain in the mountains and foothills, possibly locally more, and the possibility of .50 to 1.00 north of Kern County and away from the west side. Lesser amounts can be expected in Kern County.
Friday will see a lingering chance of light showers, especially over the mountain areas, then a new, much weaker storm will arrive in northern and central California Saturday for a good chance of light showers north of Kern County with a low chance in Kern County itself. Some showers may linger into Sunday morning. Models are starting to point in a different direction for the first week in December. High pressure will move off to the southwest, well off the California coast, while Pacific storms could potentially ride over the top of the high and into California from time to time. We could see more significant storms during this time frame interspersed with a few days of dry weather between systems.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 for the next week to ten days or longer.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: Bakersfield
Actual Humidity November 24, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/51%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .44, Parlier .41, Blackwell .48, Lindcove .41, Arvin NA, Orange Cove .46, Porterville .40, Delano .43 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 56, Blackwell 61, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 57, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 76/27. Average Temperatures: 61/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 266 -127
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.0 +1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .60 season. or -0.87 Month to Date: .50 -.34
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .34, or -.46. Month to Date: .34 -.16
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 142, Parlier, 182 , Arvin, 119 Shafter, 182 Stratford, 156, Delano 169, Lindcove, 146, Porterville, 216. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:57
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 72 / 58 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 55 / 0.03 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 53 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / M /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 56 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 54 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1558 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 55 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 65 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 2.51 117 0.78 36 2.15 14.06
MODESTO T 0.81 47 0.72 42 1.73 13.11
MERCED 0.01 0.06 3 0.82 46 1.80 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.58 32 0.21 11 1.84 12.02
FRESNO T 0.60 41 0.31 21 1.47 11.50
HANFORD T 0.34 24 0.17 12 1.39 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 0.34 43 0.03 4 0.80 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.41 58 0.16 23 0.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.09 1.83 112 0.40 24 1.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.42 29 0.23 16 1.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 0.57 35 0.05 3 1.64 13.95
Next report: Monday, November 26/am