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November 26, 2018/report

November 26, 2018

Summary: Weak upper level high pressure has formed a warm air inversion above the valley floor.  The freezing level is back up to 10,300 feet.  That, combined with recent rains, has set the stage for fog and low level clouds and that’s exactly what we have this morning.  Most of the reporting stations are at or less than one-fourth of a mile.  CHP reports indicate some locations are down to 500 feet.  We’re now into the shortest days of the year with a low sun angle.  This makes the clouds slower to burn off and they may last into the afternoon at some locations.


The high will begin to weaken tonight as the next Pacific storms rolls out of the Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Light showers are possible from mainly Fresno County northward, but amounts will be insignificant.


A very well developed low pressure system is projected by some models to be just west of San Francisco Thursday.  Some models are still suggesting small atmospheric rivers of air funneling in underneath the low into central and southern California.  If this does happen, heavy amounts of rain and snow will fall in central California.  The rain will begin to taper off late Thursday night with  just lingering showers, mainly over the mountains, Friday.


Models still indicate a fairly strong surface low will be just to our northwest Thursday.  A lot of the models are not showing this to be aggressive at all as far as potential wind development, but I still feel there is a chance of strong, gusty, south to southeast winds late Wednesday night and Thursday, especially along the west side.  We will also be teased by downslope winds blowing off the Tehachapi Mountains and potentially onto the valley floor.  Should this occur, 50+ MPH gusts could be expected at places such as the bottom of the Grapevine and other locales in the extreme south valley.  It’s possible thirty to forty MPH winds could work their way out onto the valley, possibly reaching as far north as Bakersfield.  This is a very chancy forecast, but certainly worth mentioning for ag purposes.


The next low is considerably weaker with the main energy field moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Saturday into Sunday morning.  There’s a reasonably good chance of showers from Fresno County north and a lesser chance further south.  For now, Monday and Tuesday look dry with areas of fog and low clouds.


Models are showing another strong low moving in from the west about a week from tomorrow with possibly more opportunities later next week.  Let’s keep ‘em coming!


Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds this morning, clearing in most areas this afternoon.  Widespread fog and low clouds will develop tonight and Tuesday morning.  Increasing higher clouds Tuesday with a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north, Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Cloudy Wednesday with an increasing chance of rain from mid afternoon on.  Rain likely Wednesday night and Thursday, heavy at times.  Showers Thursday night.  Lingering showers Friday, mainly over the foothills.  Increasing cloudiness Saturday leading to a chance of light showers, lasting through Sunday morning.  Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.


Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 61/40/65/48/62 Reedley 59/41/65/48/63 Dinuba 59/39/65/48/62
Porterville 65/40/67/47/64 Lindsay 65/39/67/47/63 Delano 62/44/67/49/63
Bakersfield 62/45/68/50/65 Taft 67/46/69/51/64 Arvin 66/44/69/50/65
Lamont 63/44/69/49/64 Pixley 61/40/67/47/63 Tulare 59/41/65/47/61
Woodlake 62/42/65/47/61 Hanford 60/43/67/49/62 Orosi 63/39/65/46/61


Seven Day Forecast:


Rain, heavy at times



Lingering AM showers



Chance of showers



AM showers possible



AM fog/PM sun



Two Week Outlook:  December 3 through December 9:  This model shows a possible wide area of low pressure over the interior west with possibly a northwest flow into California.  This would bring marginally below average temperatures.  Precipitation during this time frame appears to be marginally likely.


December:  It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case.  It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.


December, January, February:  It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months.  It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average.  However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.


Winds:  Winds will be at or less than 6 MPH with long periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday morning.  Winds Tuesday afternoon and night will be mainly out of the east or southeast at 5 to 10 MPH.  winds Wednesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts late Wednesday night through Thursday with possible gusts over 50 MPH near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.


Rain:  Dry weather will continue through tonight.  The next weather system to move in will spread rain over northern California Tuesday with the weaker portion  moving through central California, leading to a chance of light showers from Fresno County northward through Tuesday night.  Rainfall amounts are expected to be fairly insignificant.  The chance of rain will begin to pick up Wednesday, especially from roughly midafternoon on.  Rain will be likely Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly heavy at times.  Rain will break off into showers Thursday night with lingering showers Friday morning, mainly over or near the foothills.


Rainfall amounts from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night north of Kern County and generally east of Highway 99 could easily total between .50 and 1.00.  Along the west side of Fresno County and all of Kings County, totals could total more than .50 as the rain shadow should be somewhat weaker this time around.  Over the valley portion of Kern County, .33 to .50 is possible, which would be quite an event by Kern County standards.


Friday afternoon through Friday night will be dry.  The next Pacific storm, which will move in further north, will spread showers into central California Saturday into Sunday.  From Fresno north, .10 to .25 is possible with lesser amounts further south.  Expect dry weather to return later Sunday through Monday.


Some  models show a strong Pacific low just off the northern and central California coast, indicating it will move in at midweek for the possibility of more heavy rain as well as snow in the mountains.  It still appears there will be more opportunities for rain later next week.  So, let’s pray this overall pattern continues for a while.

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32. It is possible low to mid 30s could occur Sunday and Monday of next week.  However, if fog and low clouds take over, which is certainly possible, conditions will be milder.  Overall, though, in the medium term going out through next week, a north to northwest flow is evident, ensuring cold air masses stay to the north and east.


Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Porterville: 100%/60%, Delano:  100%/55%

Actual Humidity November 25, 2018: Delano, 100%/55%, Porterville, 98%/54%


Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%  tomorrow 60%  Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .42, Parlier .35, Blackwell .46, Lindcove .37, Arvin NA, Orange Cove .41, Porterville .37, Delano .37  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 


Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 57, Blackwell 61, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 58, Delano 55


Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 60/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 274 -136

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 55.1 +2.2


Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: .60 season. or -0.91 Month to Date: .50 -.38

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  .34, or -.48.  Month to Date: .34 -.18

Water year season is from October 1st through September.


Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 142,  Parlier, 182 ,  Arvin, 119 Shafter, 182  Stratford, 156, Delano 169, Lindcove, 146,  Porterville, 220

.   Hours at 45 or below 45.


Sunrise: 6:49 am  Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:56

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  64 /  51 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  63 /  52 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  66 /  51 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  66 /  56 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  67 /  50 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1556 /  64 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  70 /  51 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1555 /  63 /  55 / 0.00 /


Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    2.51   114    0.78    35     2.21    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.81    46    0.72    40     1.78    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.06     3    0.82    45     1.83    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.58    31    0.21    11     1.88    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.60    40    0.31    21     1.51    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.34    24    0.17    12     1.41    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.34    41    0.03     4     0.82     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.41    56    0.16    22     0.73     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    1.83   108    0.40    24     1.70    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.42    29    0.23    16     1.46    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.57    34    0.05     3     1.69    13.95


Next report:  Monday, November 26/pm