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Forecast

November 26, 2018/pm report

November 26, 2018

Summary: Quite a balmy afternoon after the fog and low clouds burned off this morning.  Temperatures have warmed up nicely with most locations, as of 2:00pm, pushing into the upper 60s to possibly near 70 by the time the day is over.  High, mainly thin clouds are spreading over the northern half of California ahead of a low pressure system which could spread light showers as far south as Fresno County Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Models continue to indicate precipitation amounts will be very light with this system with possibly no rain at all south of Fresno County.

 

That will begin to change Wednesday as a strong Pacific low, both at the surface and aloft, begins to approach from the west.  Models still say heavy amounts of precipitation will fall up and down the Sierra Nevada with heavy snow above roughly 7,000 feet.  There will be a strong difference in pressure between the center of the surface low near San Francisco and higher pressure over the interior.  This will spawn gusty south to southeast winds in many areas, especially during the day Thursday.  Models have backed off somewhat on the potential for a strong wind event in Kern County as most of the high resolution models keep the strongest winds above the valley floor.  Still, this is pretty much a risky wind forecast so it will be interesting to see how it actually pans out.

 

The low will slide east of the Sierra Nevada later Thursday night with lingering showers Friday, mainly over the mountain areas.  The next low will move in from the eastern Pacific Ocean Saturday.  This is a cooler system and will not be carrying as much water, so only light amounts of rain are expected.  The chance of showers will continue into Sunday morning then a ridge of upper level high pressure will begin to build northward along the central coast, possibly setting the stage for a north/south flow aloft.  This could lead to some frost nights beginning early next week.  Currently, it appears the bulk of this cold air will slide southward just to our east.  Needless to say, it is something to keep an eye on.

 

Models are currently not painting as much of a wet pattern for the first week in December as they were just this morning.  The pattern shown this morning would have resulted in an active pattern from time to time.  Since there are considerable differences, we’ll call for a chance of rain during the first week in December.  If this does not occur, our main challenge will likely be extensive fog and/or low clouds.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear with high clouds mixing in tonight.  Fog and low clouds will develop after midnight, possibly becoming widespread by morning.  Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County northward, Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Cloudy Wednesday with a chance of showers Wednesday morning, showers becoming likely later in the afternoon.  Rain likely Wednesday night through Thursday, locally heavy at times.  Showers Thursday night, tapering off after midnight.  Lingering showers Friday morning, mainly over the mountains.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon and night.  Light showers likely Saturday and Saturday night, lingering into Sunday morning.  Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.  Partly cloudy Monday afternoon.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 42/66/48/58 Reedley 41/66/49/59 Dinuba 41/65/47/58
Porterville 40/67/47/63 Lindsay 40/67/48/62 Delano 44/68/49/63
Bakersfield 45/70/51/67 Arvin 44/70/50/67 Taft 49/70/51/66
Lamont 44/68/50/64 Pixley 41/66/48/62 Tulare 40/65/47/59
Woodlake 40/66/48/60 Hanford 41/67/48/59 Orosi 40/66/48/59

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday morning.  Winds Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night will be out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Wednesday and 15 to 25 MPH later Wednesday night and Thursday with stronger gusts.  It’s possible strong, gusty south to southeast winds will commence near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains late Wednesday night and Thursday, although the chance appears to be somewhat lower.  Winds Thursday night and Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH.

 

Rain: Dry weather will continue tonight into Tuesday morning.  The chance of light showers will begin to increase later Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly from Fresno County north.  Even in Fresno and Madera Counties, no more than a tenth or two is expected.  A much stronger low will approach from the west Wednesday, spreading rain throughout the area Wednesday afternoon.  Rain will be locally heavy at times Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, breaking off into showers Thursday night with lingering showers Friday, mainly over the mountains.

 

Rainfall amounts from this system still look to be quite significant with .50 to 1.00 possible north of Kern County and east of Highway 99.  A good half inch is not out of the question along the western side of Fresno County and much of Kings County.  Even over the valley portion of Kern County, as much as .33 to .50 cannot be ruled out.  This storm will exit to the east of the Sierra Nevada by early Friday with the next low arriving Saturday.  This will be a somewhat cooler system and will be carrying a good deal less water, so amounts are expected to be at or less than .25 with even lighter amounts in the south valley.  Showers will linger into Sunday morning then dry weather will begin Sunday afternoon, lasting through at least the middle part of next week.  Beyond that, models are showing drier weather than in previous days.  However, they’ve been flip flopping recently.  At least the two week outlook is indicating a better than even chance of above average precipitation.

 

Frost Information: All locations will be above freezing.  No challenges with frost through at least Sunday morning.  Early next week, a sharp ridge is projected to build northward along the west coast into western Canada, generating a north to south flow over the western United States.  This would certainly spread a colder air mass over the region.  We may very well see an off shore flow Tuesday and Wednesday which would aid in spreading colder, drier air into the valley.  However, there’s also a decent chance of dew points staying high enough for an increasing chance of low clouds and fog which would certainly help keep temperatures up.  For now, this doesn’t look like a critical situation, but a pattern worth watching.  At this point, we’ll go with low to mid 30s Monday through Wednesday mornings and detail the situation as we go.

 

Next Report: Tuesday morning/November 27