November 30, 2018
Summary: Skies have cleared along the west side north of Kern County and over portions of the central valley from roughly Visalia north. A great deal of cloudiness remains along the east side of the valley as clouds bank up against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and more especially the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Currently, there’s a rather robust northwest flow which should regenerate cloud cover in the south valley through Saturday morning.
The next system of note is already spreading precipitation into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This low will move southeastward, spreading light showers over the valley Saturday, especially from mid to late morning on. Showers will continue well into Saturday night with dry weather returning Sunday, although upslope light showers will be possible for a time Sunday morning in Tulare and Kern Counties. Partial clearing will occur Sunday afternoon into early Monday with fog and low clouds forming in many areas Monday morning due to a soaking wet valley floor and weak high pressure forming above. Even so, where it does clear, low to mid 30s will be widespread with upper 20s possible in the usual trouble spots. More on that in the frost discussion.
The next Pacific storm is still well out to sea. It will move eastward to a position several hundred miles off the central coast by Tuesday night. Most of the current modeling information is that the low will then track southeastward parallel to the coast. These models also indicate the track may be too far to the west for a decent precipitation event Wednesday and Thursday. If it tracks closer to the coast, our chance of rain would really ratchet up. Models still show the low moving inland Friday through southern California and northern Baja.
It’s possible a new storm could affect at least the northern half of the valley next weekend. It’s too far away to put much credence in that for now, but the new two week model for the following week still shows a rain bulls eye at northern and central California. Let’s hope this comes about.
Forecast: Mostly clear towards the center and west side of the valley tonight, but remaining partly to mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties. Increasing cloudiness Saturday with light showers spreading over the valley by mid to late morning, continuing through the day and well into Saturday night. A few lingering showers are possible Sunday morning, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Sunday afternoon into early Monday. Areas of fog and low clouds will develop Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday night with possible widespread fog and low clouds developing. Higher clouds will begin to increase from the west Tuesday, leading to a slight chance of showers Tuesday night. For now, we’ll just go with a chance of light showers Wednesday through Thursday and mainly in Kern county Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/52/34/52 | Reedley 38/51/33/52 | Dinuba 35/51/32/52 | |
| Porterville 38/53/32/52 | Lindsay 39/53/31/52 | Delano 41/53/35/53 | |
| Bakersfield 43/53/40/52 | Taft 44/55/42/53 | Arvin 41/53/39/53 | |
| Lamont 40/54/38/52 | Pixley 37/53/33/53 | Tulare 36/51/32/52 | |
| Woodlake 37/53/33/51 | Hanford 36/51/33/52 | Orosi 36/53/31/51 | |
Winds: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, becoming light overnight. Winds Saturday morning will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 10 MPH. winds late Saturday afternoon and night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, diminishing Sunday with light to near calm winds Sunday night and Monday.
Rain: Rain will again be likely Saturday, especially from mid to late morning then late into the evening Saturday night. Amounts from this system will be at or below .25 in Madera and Fresno Counties and perhaps a tenth or two in much of Tulare, Kern, and Kings Counties. Some lingering light showers are possible for a time Sunday morning, mainly in Tulare and Kern Counties, with dry weather Sunday afternoon through probably most of Tuesday. More of a lower latitude storm will approach the central coast Tuesday night, but as it approaches, it will take a southeast jog parallel to the central coast. Current thinking is the dynamic part of the storm will pass too far to the west to result in a significant precipitation event Wednesday and Thursday. If by some chance, it becomes a coastal hugger as it moves south, then a significant precipitation event will be possible. The low will move inland through southern California and northern Baja Friday for a chance of showers in Kern County. Some models are suggesting a chance of rain again next Saturday and Sunday, mainly from Fresno County north. This is a new development, so we’ll find out if there’s anything to it as the days go by.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight with coldest locations down to 34 to 37 degrees. It’s possible a few locations could dip down into the low to mid 30s Sunday morning. For now, my feeling is wind conditions and upslope clouds will keep most if not all locations above freezing. If skies are relatively clear Monday morning, low to mid 30s will be widespread with a chance of upper 20s in those usual cold spots. Ditto that for Tuesday morning. It’s possible cloud cover could arrive ahead of the next storm system, interfering with radiational cooling for Tuesday morning, although that’s very speculative at this time. All locations will be above freezing Wednesday morning and beyond due to cloud cover and a chance of rain. The flow behind this system will be out of the west to northwest, cutting off any potential cold air masses and keeping conditions safe.
Next report: Saturday morning/December 1