December 2, 2018
Summary: The drier northwest flow behind yesterday’s low pressure system have mixed out the cloud cover over central California. Even the mountain areas are now mostly clear as satellite imagery shows a nice mantle of snow up and down the Sierra Nevada. Tonight will be relatively cold as strong radiational cooling will begin at sunset which will lead to below freezing conditions in many areas. With dew points in the lower 40s, fog will become widespread in many areas after midnight and possibly even fan out into the lowest foothills.
A weak high is above us now but it will shift eastward later Monday night, allowing an eastern Pacific low to approach the central California coast Tuesday night. As the low approaches, it will turn southeastward instead of moving inland. The key to rainfall amounts with this storm will be how close to the coast this system tracks on its journey to southern California. Rain appears likely late Tuesday night and Wednesday through Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday, mainly in the south valley during the first part of the day as the low opens up into a trough and heads through southern California.
The flow behind this storm will be out of the west/northwest which will mean fairly mild conditions as upper level high pressure takes over later Friday through Monday. With recent rains, fog and low clouds will take over this coming weekend, no doubt becoming widespread, especially by Sunday.
On Monday night and Tuesday of next week, models are still pointing towards a significant low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a moist west to east flow into California. Historically, this pattern has been a generous rainmaker, especially over the mountains, not to mention heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight. Fog will begin to develop after midnight and become widespread Monday morning. After the fog burns off later Monday morning, partly cloudy conditions will prevail. High clouds will be on the increase Monday night then an increasing chance of rain will begin Tuesday night, especially after midnight. Periods of rain will be likely Wednesday through Thursday morning with a small chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning with areas of fog possible Friday morning. Increasing amounts of fog and low clouds Saturday and Sunday morning, locally persistent through the day.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/56/34/57 | Reedley 29/56/35/57 | Dinuba 28/56/33/58 | |
| Porterville 29/58/35/59 | Lindsay 27/57/34/60 | Delano 31/58/36/61 | |
| Bakersfield 34/59/42/66 | Taft 38/58/42/65 | Arvin 32/60/42/68 | |
| Lamont 32/59/40/66 | Pixley 29/57/35/58 | Tulare 28/56/34/57 | |
| Woodlake 28/58/35/57 | Hanford 31/57/36/59 | Orosi 28/56/35/57 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Monday night will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be out of the east or southeast at 5 to15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds Tuesday in Kern County will increase out of the east or southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts, increasing to 15 to 35 MPH Tuesday night and Wednesday, diminishing Wednesday night with light winds returning Thursday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Monday night. The chance of rain, especially along the west side, will begin Tuesday afternoon then spread in from the west later Tuesday night with periods of rain Wednesday through roughly midday Thursday. There will be a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly in Kern County, then dry weather will return Thursday night through Monday. Amounts of rain from this upcoming system appear to be in the .25 to .33 range with locally more, especially along the west side this time. In Kern County, .10 to .25 is anticipated. On Monday night and Tuesday of next week, we’ll see our next opportunity of rain. Models this afternoon are still depicting a strong low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a moist westerly flow moving into California. Historically, this pattern has been a generous rain maker, especially over the mountains, not to mention heavy snow over the higher elevations. It’s possible we may see at least one more opportunity for rain later next week.
Frost Discussion: Skies have cleared over the entire valley and adjacent foothills and mountains this afternoon. With only nine hours and forty six minutes of daylight now, obviously the nights are very long and even though dew points are in the low to mid 40s, many locations tonight will chill into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. There are high, thin clouds to our west which will move inland from time to time during the night, but for now I’m assuming these clouds will be too thin to really be of much benefit.
With dew points in the 40s and plenty of moisture on the valley floor, fog will no doubt develop, especially after midnight, forming first towards the center of the valley then fanning out towards the foothills. For now, it appears doubtful the fog layer will be dense enough to really have much impact on temperatures.
The inversion tonight will be fairly moderate with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 7 degrees warmer.
Mid and high level clouds should begin to move in from the west by Tuesday morning ahead of a Pacific storm which will bring more rain to the valley, possibly by Tuesday night but for sure Wednesday into Thursday. The flow behind this system will be out of the west/northwest which, this time of year, is moderately mild. So, I do look for above freezing conditions from Wednesday morning on.
There’s nothing on the weather horizon at this point suggesting any problems through mid December.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Monday morning/December 3