December 2, 2018
Summary: There is plenty of dense fog out there this morning. Bakersfield, Visalia, Porterville, and Hanford are all reporting visibilities of ¼ mile or less. Satellite imagery shows considerable amounts of low clouds along the east side of the valley and over Kern County where upsloping against the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains continues to regenerate cloud cover. Some very light rain and snow are actually being reported along the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains.
Weak high pressure will take the reigns today through Monday night with a brisk northwest flow. This is allowing relatively cold air to settle into the San Joaquin Valley, leading to frost in some areas of the valley tonight. This is discussed below.
Fog and/or low clouds could be in effect Monday and Tuesday mornings, as well, with most areas seeing some sunshine in the afternoon. High clouds could begin to show up as early as late Monday night ahead of a developing low pressure system still well off the central coast. This storm will continue to move eastward and will be about 200 to 300 miles west of Monterey Tuesday night with periods of rain spreading in from the west sometime Tuesday night and continuing on and off into Thursday morning.
As the low approaches the coast, it will make a right turn, moving it southeastward off shore and into southern California Thursday night and early Friday. By then, the low will have opened up into more of a low pressure wave, meaning a considerably weaker weather system.
There will be a distinct difference in pressure between the high deserts and the off shore low Wednesday. This may spawn some strong gusty east to southeast winds over portions of the Kern County valley floor. This far out, I would put them in the 15 to 30 MPH range with stronger gusts possible. This will have to be studied closely as we move forward in time.
Forecast: Extensive fog and low clouds in Tulare and Kern Counties and locally elsewhere this morning. Mostly clear to partly cloudy later this afternoon through Monday. Fog and low clouds will develop in many areas Monday and possibly Tuesday morning with afternoon clearing. The chance of rain spreading in from the west will increase late Tuesday night. Rain will be likely at times Wednesday through Thursday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night with increasing amounts of fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/30/55/35/58 | Reedley 54/31/56/36/57 | Dinuba 54/29/56/34/57 | |
| Porterville 54/30/56/35/59 | Lindsay 55/29/56/34/60 | Delano 54/32/56/38/61 | |
| Bakersfield 53/37/57/41/65 | Taft 56/40/57/43/64 | Arvin 53/33/56/39/64 | |
| Lamont 55/33/56/38/62 | Pixley 54/31/56/37/57 | Tulare 54/29/56/35/57 | |
| Woodlake 54/30/56/36/57 | Hanford 54/31/56/37/58 | Orosi 55/29/56/34/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Periods of rain 49/58 |
Thursday
AM rain possible 44/58 |
Friday
AM fog/partly cloudy 41/57 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 39/56 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 38/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 9 through December 15: The storm door will remain wide open, according to this model. In fact, the trend continues this morning for the high probability of rain for northern and central California. The flow across the Pacific Ocean will be out of the west or northwest with near to marginally above temperatures.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH. Winds tonight through Monday night will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday north of Kern County will be out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. In Kern County, winds will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to20 MPH with stronger gusts Tuesday night, increasing to 15 to 30 MPH Tuesday night and Wednesday with stronger gusts at times.
Rain: Expect dry weather through early Tuesday. A low will approach the central coast Tuesday night and begin to pinwheel bands of precipitation over central California probably after midnight. Periods of rain are likely Wednesday into Thursday morning. For now, it appears territory north of Kern County could record between .25 and .50 with lesser amounts in Kern County. Dry weather will return Thursday afternoon and continue through at least Sunday night.
Models are pointing at the beginning of a possible prolonged period of off and on wet weather beginning Monday night or Tuesday. For now, it looks like a strong zonal flow will set up under a big low centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This would maintain an open storm door later next week, as well. How much precipitation could fall is impossible to calculate at this time, but historically these types of patterns can do pretty well.
Frost Discussion: Most locations in Tulare, Fresno, and Madera Counties are bottoming out in the low to mid 30s this morning with lower 40s from southern Tulare County through Kern County. Monday morning will see a better opportunity for more locations to dip below freezing. Somewhat drier air will be moving down the valley later this afternoon and tonight. Right now, it’s questionable whether there will be enough dry air to mix out upslope clouds.
Where skies are relatively clear tonight, coldest locations should dip down into the 27 to 29 degree range with most other locations ranging from 29 to 34 or so. Possibly milder in locations with the benefit of cloud cover.
I am anticipating widespread fog and dense clouds after midnight which could have some affect. However, for now I am not holding onto that assumption.
The inversion tonight will be moderate with temperatures near 34 feet ranging from 3 to 6 degrees warmer.
Tuesday morning will depend on the arrival of higher clouds advancing ahead of a low pressure system. If these clouds arrive too late, then upper 20s to lower 30s would again be likely. Right now, I’m betting clouds will show up after midnight which would help maintain milder temperatures.
There will be plenty of clouds and on and off precipitation Wednesday and Thursday mornings for above freezing conditions. After Thursday, a relatively mild west or northwest flow will continue, effectively keeping colder air masses to our north and east. The following week also appears safe with the probability of on and off storminess. The bottom line is, it appears we’ll go through mid December with no real freeze threat.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 65%/100%, Bakersfield: 60%/95%
Actual Humidity November 30, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/67%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .32, Parlier .27, Blackwell .39, Lindcove .24, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .25, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Blackwell 59, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 55, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 74/27. Average Temperatures: 58/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 341 -174
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 46.5 -0.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.82 season. or +.08, Month to Date: .05 +.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .87, or -.09. Month to Date: .19 +.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 162, Parlier, 205 , Arvin, 127 Shafter, 195 Stratford, 180, Delano 171, Lindcove, 179, Porterville, 276
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 52 / 41 / 0.05 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 37 / 0.11 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 37 / 0.08 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 46 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 37 / 0.09 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 60 / 38 / 0.03 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 55 / 39 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / 0.06 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / M / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.20 3.73 145 0.91 35 2.57 14.06
MODESTO 0.49 2.91 139 0.98 47 2.09 13.11
MERCED 0.24 2.60 129 1.03 51 2.01 12.50
MADERA 0.13 2.25 110 0.32 16 2.05 12.02
FRESNO 0.05 1.82 105 0.37 21 1.74 11.50
HANFORD 0.11 1.56 103 0.37 24 1.52 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 0.68 71 0.03 3 0.96 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 156 0.16 19 0.84 5.18
SALINAS 0.07 3.63 179 0.75 37 2.03 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.10 2.47 146 0.25 15 1.69 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 1.81 91 0.09 5 1.98 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
35 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
34 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 2/pm