John Hibler
Weather Forecasting
johnhibler@johnhibler.com
573-776-3920
December 4, 2018
Summary: Doppler radar, as of the time of this writing, was indicating scattered light showers from southern Kings County northeastward through Mariposa County. The radar returns are so light it appears just trace amounts of rain have fallen so far. Light showers are also beginning to spread inland along the coast from Lompoc on the south to Monterey on the north. All this activity is moving towards the northeast.
The main dynamics of this storm are still off shore as the center of circulation is located roughly 350 miles to the west/northwest of Monterey. Pressure differences will begin to tighten up between the high deserts and the off shore flow. Winds have already begun to increase over the Kern County portion of the valley floor as winds are gusting to 38 MPH at the bottom of the Grapevine, 30 MPH at Lamont, and 15 to 20 MPH as far north as Meadows Field. These winds should increase during the course of the day with local 50 MPH gusts possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
The center of the low is now making its southeastward turn, as expected. As it does, it will pinwheel light showers over central California well into Thursday. By early Thursday morning, the center of circulation will be somewhere near the Channel Islands. The low will then open up into a wave and move across southern California Thursday night and Friday. Most of the precipitation on the valley floor will end by midday Thursday.
Upper level will build in from the west Friday through Sunday. As a warm air inversion develops, extensive low clouds and fog can be expected Saturday and Sunday mornings. We will then turn our attention to the next low which will be located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Monday with a strong southwesterly flow flanked under the low and into California. This will spread more precipitation over our region, although models have ratcheted back potential precipitation amounts as it appears the main dynamics of this storm will be over northern California. This system will be to our east by Wednesday of next week. Models seem to be trending towards a dry pattern from Wednesday through the following weekend. Even the two week model encompassing December 11 through the 16 is now adamant in moving precipitation into northern California.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Thursday with a chance of light showers today. Periods of light showers tonight through Thursday morning with a small chance of light showers Thursday afternoon, mainly in Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night through Friday morning. Becoming mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night. Expect extensive fog and low clouds both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Increasing cloudiness Monday with an increasing chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/44/58/43/58 | Reedley 59/45/57/44/57 | Dinuba 56/43/57/44/57 | |
| Porterville 61/45/61/44/59 | Lindsay 60/43/58/43/58 | Delano 62/46/59/44/58 | |
| Bakersfield 66/50/63/45/60 | Taft 63/50/62/48/59 | Arvin 66/50/62/45/60 | |
| Lamont 65/49/62/45/59 | Pixley 60/45/55/44/58 | Tulare 57/44/57/43/57 | |
| Woodlake 59/44/58/43/57 | Hanford 59/43/58/45/58 | Orosi 59/44/58/45/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM rain 48/55 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 42/59 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 39/55 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 38/54 |
Monday
PM rain possible 44/59 |
Two Week Outlook: December 11 through December 17: If this model has any distinction at all, it’s that it shows the storm track moving further north during this period. Although it doesn’t show the typical big high off shore, it is showing a flat zone of high pressure, keeping most of the precipitation from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures during this period may rise to above average, however if fog and low clouds take over, that could change.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds north of Kern County will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side. Already this morning, over the valley portion of Kern County winds are in the 30 to 40 MPH range in places like Lamont and the bottom of the Grapevine and no doubt other locations. The potential for local gusts to 50 MPH near the base of the Tehachapis is there through the day with gusts to near 30 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. These winds will decrease to around 10 to 20 MPH tonight and 10 to 15 MPH Wednesday. Winds Thursday and beyond will be generally light.
Rain: Light showers are spreading inland along the central coast with even a few sprinkles over the valley floor at this hour. The deeper moisture and main dynamics are still off shore, but as the center of circulation moves southeastward parallel to the coast, the counterclockwise rotation of the storm will move light showers from southwest to northeast across the valley tonight through Wednesday. The chance of showers will continue Wednesday night and Thursday morning, tapering off during the afternoon with the possible exception of Kern County which will have a chance of light showers into Thursday night.
The strongest portion of the storm will not move inland through central California, thus amounts will generally be light with .10 as an average. A few isolated locales could pick up .25. expect dry weather Friday through Sunday night.
On Monday, especially towards evening, the chance of rain will again increase. Models are backing off on this being a big precipitation producer as the main low will move through Oregon and northern California. The chance of rain will continue into early Wednesday. The trend after that is towards dry weather from Wednesday through the following weekend, and possibly into the next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through at least the weekend. It’s possible some of the coldest locations Saturday through Sunday mornings could dip down to 33 to 35 degrees, however with a west/northwest flow following the current storm, safe conditions will continue.
Next week also appears to be relatively frost free as clouds and rain will maintain above freezing conditions Monday through Wednesday. The flow behind that will also be out of the west/northwest, keeping conditions acceptable.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 35%/75%
Actual Humidity December 3, 2018: Delano, 98%/51%, Porterville, 97%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .30, Parlier .27, Blackwell .38, Lindcove .23, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .26, Porterville .24, Delano .31 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 72/28. Average Temperatures: 58/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 376 -177
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 47.2 +0.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.82 season. or +.00, Month to Date: .05 -.07
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .87, or -.15. Month to Date: .19 +.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 188, Parlier, 228 , Arvin, 145 Shafter, 222 Stratford, 200, Delano 205, Lindcove, 213, Porterville, 312
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 am Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 51 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 57 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 56 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 3.73 139 0.91 34 2.69 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 2.97 135 0.98 45 2.20 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.60 126 1.03 50 2.07 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.25 106 0.32 15 2.12 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.82 100 0.37 20 1.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.57 101 0.37 24 1.56 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.87 86 0.03 3 1.01 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 151 0.16 18 0.87 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.63 170 0.75 35 2.14 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.47 139 0.25 14 1.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.81 87 0.09 4 2.08 13.95
Next report: December 3/pm