Considerable low clouds remain over the valley this afternoon, although skies have cleared out over portions of the west valley and pockets of clearing are taking place elsewhere. This will be the main challenge this weekend as a warm air inversion locks all that moisture in the lowest level of the atmosphere. The freezing level has risen from 7,300 feet yesterday evening to 9,000 feet currently. Temperatures the next few days will be largely governed by the fog and low clouds. If the fog completely takes over, days will be chilly but overnight lows will be milder.
On Monday night and Tuesday, a weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest and, to a lesser extent, northern and central California. For now, it appears showers will spread no further south than a Bay Area/Sacramento line, but it is possible it may briefly mix the fog out of the valley, though that remains to be seen. Also, a low will drop southward into Nevada Wednesday, better known as an inside slider.
On the back side of the low will be a north/northwest flow, aiding in pushing a cooler air mass into the region. No widespread frost or freeze is expected, but just a fairly typical December air mass which could easily lower temperatures into the low to mid 30s Wednesday through Friday nights, depending upon the fog layer or possibly the lack thereof.
Next weekend, a westerly flow will be evident into the western U.S. This is the type of pattern where western Washington and Oregon could pick up heavy amounts of rain from time to time, but for now it appears the rain line will remain to our north.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds developing tonight and again Saturday night with partial afternoon clearing. Widespread fog and low clouds Sunday night and Monday morning then mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday with possible areas of night and morning valley fog. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/55/41/54 | Reedley 39/54/40/53 | Dinuba 39/54/39/53 | |
| Porterville 40/56/41/54 | Lindsay 38/55/38/54 | Delano 40/56/41/55 | |
| Bakersfield 44/55/43/55 | Taft 44/58/43/60 | Arvin 42/54/41/54 | |
| Lamont 41/56/42/56 | Pixley 40/56/41/55 | Tulare 39/54/39/54 | |
| Woodlake 38/56/38/55 | Hanford 40/56/41/54 | Orosi 39/56/38/55 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or below 15 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next seven days. There are too many model variances to nail down a pattern after that. I would put the chance of rain in the low category until about the fourteenth of the month when some models show the storm track migrating further south.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night through Tuesday morning, at least. Low pressure will be sliding southward into Nevada Wednesday. Along the backside of this low will be a brief north/northwest flow which may inject a marginally cooler air mass into the region. I wouldn’t rule out low to mid 30s Wednesday through Friday of next week with a slight chance of upper 20s. Much of this will depend upon the behavior of the fog and whether this system will provide enough wind energy to break the inversion. If the fog indicates it’s going nowhere fast, conditions will be milder.
Next report: Saturday morning/December 8