December 8, 2018
Summary: All locations in the San Joaquin Valley are reporting dense fog or low clouds and in some cases, a combination of both. Fairly weak upper level high pressure resides over California now with the freezing level now up to 10,300 feet. Temperature forecasting through Monday will be difficult as it will depend upon when and if the sun breaks through the low overcast. Locations with a few hours of sunshine this afternoon will warm into the mid to upper 50s, however, locations that remain sealed in by cloud cover will only see temperatures in the upper 40s to the low 50s. the high will begin to shift eastward Monday as a weak trough of low pressure moves through Monday night and Tuesday morning. Models for the most part show this as a dry system, although a few show a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno north.
Right behind this system will be an inside slider, a low moving through the Pacific Northwest but then southeastward into the Great Basin. I do not anticipate precipitation from this system, either, but the combination of a Monday night and Wednesday systems may very well break up the inversion and rid the valley of the pea soup. That is by no means a given, as many times once this moist layer of air becomes entrenched, it takes a stronger type of low to scour out the valley.
From Thursday through next weekend, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will stretch from the eastern Pacific into California. This pattern will give heavy amounts of rain from time to time to western Washington and Oregon and possibly northwest California, but barring anything unforeseen, central and southern California will remain dry under high pressure.
Forecast: Fog and/or low overcast through Sunday night with clearing possible in some areas during the afternoon. Fog and low clouds Monday morning then mostly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning with a slight chance of a few showers from Fresno County north. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Saturday with widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/43/54/42/53 | Reedley 55/42/55/41/53 | Dinuba 54/42/54/41/53 | |
| Porterville 56/42/55/41/55 | Lindsay 56/41/56/42/54 | Delano 55/44/54/44/54 | |
| Bakersfield 55/45/55/44/56 | Taft 59/45/59/45/60 | Arvin 53/44/54/43/57 | |
| Lamont 55/43/55/44/57 | Pixley 54/42/54/43/55 | Tulare 54/41/54/42/55 | |
| Woodlake 55/44/55/43/56 | Hanford 55/43/55/42/56 | Orosi 56/41/56/42/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 42/54 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/55 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 37/56 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 37/55 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 39/54 |
Two Week Outlook: December 14 through December 20: This model is back to giving central California a better than even chance of rain during this period. It does show at least one Pacific storm moving through with possibly more. The main flow will be out of the west to northwest, so temperatures should run a bit above average, unless the fog takes over.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through at least Monday morning. Most models continue to point to dry weather as a trough moves through late Monday into Tuesday morning. A few models suggest a minimal chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno north, so a slight chance of showers will be added to this forecast. The remainder of next week, from Wednesday on, still looks to be dry through the weekend and at least the first few days of the following week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Monday morning. A weak trough will move through Monday night and early Tuesday followed by a second low which will slide southward through the Great Basin. This will briefly turn the winds aloft from a north/northwest direction which could have enough mixing effect to scour out the valley of its fog and low clouds. Even so, this air mass is only marginally cooler than the present one, so low to mid 30s will be possible Tuesday through Thursday mornings. It’s also possible the low level moisture and its resulting fog and low clouds remain, in which case above freezing conditions will prevail. Still nothing on medium range projections to indicate a particularly cold pattern.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/100%, Bakersfield: 70%/95%
Actual Humidity December 7, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/73%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .22, Parlier .22, Blackwell .32, Lindcove .21, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .26, Porterville .21, Delano .27 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 77/25. Average Temperatures: 56/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 428 -202
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.8 +3.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.92 season. or -.09, Month to Date: .15 -.16
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.20, or +.07. Month to Date: .52 +.33
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 196, Parlier, 233 , Arvin, 168 Shafter, 237 Stratford, 204, Delano 214, Lindcove, 237, Porterville, 377
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:00 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1509 / 53 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 49 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1525 / 53 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 60 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 54 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 3.87 132 0.91 31 2.94 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.05 126 0.98 40 2.42 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.69 122 1.03 47 2.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.42 106 0.32 14 2.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.92 96 0.37 18 2.01 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.71 103 0.37 22 1.66 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.20 106 0.03 3 1.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 138 0.16 17 0.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.87 164 0.75 32 2.36 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.84 143 0.25 13 1.98 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 84 0.09 4 2.32 13.95
Next report: December 8/pm