Summary: Abundant low level moisture has been left behind by the storm system which brought generally light rain to the valley. The exception was Kern County which, in some cases, recorded upwards of a half inch. Copious amounts of rain fell over southern California with three to five inches in some cases over the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. That low is now moving into northwest Mexico, allowing upper level high pressure to begin building in from the west. All locations in the valley have either ground fog or a low overcast. With only nine hours and forty three minutes of daylight and the low sun angle, these clouds and the fog will be slow to burn off. It may not burn off at all in some areas. So, in other words, the cat and mouse game with the fog has begun.
Weak high pressure will dominate our pattern through Sunday night. A warm air inversion will develop, increasing the chance for fog and low clouds. A weak trough of low pressure will move in from the Pacific Northwest and northern California Monday night and Tuesday. This system will split off the central coast, so the chance of precipitation for central California is about nil. It will be interesting to see if enough mixing occurs to at least reduce the fog and low clouds.
A very wet pattern will evolve for the Pacific Northwest and at least northwest California Wednesday through next weekend. However, models are showing upper level high pressure parking off the southern California coast, reaching far enough to the north to keep central California dry. At least the two week outlook is more favorable for rain as it indicates a better than even chance of at least one storm between the fourteenth and the twentieth and possibly more.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds this morning. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. Widespread fog and low clouds developing tonight and again Saturday night with clearing possible in the afternoons. Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday morning with areas of night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. Widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings with partial afternoon clearing Wednesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/39/53/42/53 | Reedley 54/40/54/39/53 | Dinuba 53/40/53/42/53 | |
| Porterville 56/38/55/38/55 | Lindsay 56/39/55/38/56 | Delano 56/41/56/40/57 | |
| Bakersfield 56/44/57/43/58 | Taft 59/44/58/42/59 | Arvin 56/41/58/41/58 | |
| Lamont 56/42/57/40/58 | Pixley 55/41/54/40/54 | Tulare 54/42/53/41/53 | |
| Woodlake 56/39/55/37/55 | Hanford 55/40/54/39/55 | Orosi 56/39/56/40/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/partly cloudy 42/57 |
Tuesday
Am fog/Partly cloudy 41/56 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 39/55 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 40/54 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 42/53 |
Two Week Outlook: December 14 through December 20: This model is back to giving central California a better than even chance of rain during this period. It does show at least one Pacific storm moving through with possibly more. The main flow will be out of the west to northwest, so temperatures should run a bit above average, unless the fog takes over.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: Today will be the first day of dry weather we’ve had in a bit, and the dry weather will be with us for a while. I feel comfortable in taking the chance of rain out of the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday. Models show a blocking ridge Wednesday through next weekend. So it appears the next seven days will be dry. At least the two week model is giving us a better than even chance of rain between the fourteenth and twentieth. Hopefully that will pan out.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the next seven to possibly ten days. With anticipated dew points this afternoon near 50, and widespread fog and low clouds forming, most locations will cool into the mid 30s to the lower 40s. if the fog and low clouds completely take over and lift into a low overcast, there would be very little difference in daytime and nighttime temperatures. Longer range models continue to show that relatively mild west to northwest flow for at least the next week. Even modeling beyond that indicate temperatures largely above average.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/100%, Bakersfield: 70%/100%
Actual Humidity December 4, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/94%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .25, Parlier .25, Blackwell .32, Lindcove .22, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .21, Delano .26 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 53, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 69/25. Average Temperatures: 57/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 415 -195
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.4 +3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.92 season. or -.04, Month to Date: .15 -.11
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.20, or +.10. Month to Date: .52 +.36
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 196, Parlier, 233 , Arvin, 165 Shafter, 231 Stratford, 202, Delano 213, Lindcove, 221, Porterville, 353
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 50 / 0.09 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 49 / 0.07 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 47 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 47 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 55 / 49 / 0.33 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 45 / 0.06 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 55 / 47 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 48 / 0.27 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 52 / 48 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 48 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.01 3.87 134 0.91 32 2.88 14.06
MODESTO T 3.05 129 0.98 42 2.36 13.11
MERCED T 2.69 124 1.03 47 2.17 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.42 109 0.32 14 2.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.91 97 0.37 19 1.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 1.71 105 0.37 23 1.63 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.31 1.20 109 0.03 3 1.10 6.47
BISHOP T 1.31 141 0.16 17 0.93 5.18
SALINAS T 3.87 168 0.75 33 2.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 2.84 147 0.25 13 1.93 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.05 1.95 87 0.09 4 2.25 13.95
Next report: December 7/pm