December 12, 2018
Summary: It was quite a mixed bag last night. the low overcast hung in there all night long in Tulare County and portions of Kern County where overnight lows were well into the 40s. In Madera and Fresno Counties, temperatures had no trouble dropping into the mid 30s as skies cleared there. In Kern County, temperatures ranged from the low to mid 30s to the low to mid 40s where patchy clouds and fog remained.
Satellite imagery is quite interesting this morning. It shows low clouds remaining in the southeast portion of the valley dissipating with time. However, up in the lower Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valleys, another area of fog and clouds has developed and is expanding southward. Time will tell whether this will eventually encompass the rest of the valley, as well.
In the bigger picture, a low is driving southeastward through the Rocky Mountain region with a weak trough moving through southern California. Behind this low will be the development of a surface high over the Great Basin which will generate an off shore flow tonight and Thursday. What is left of a cold front will try to move into central California Friday, but at this time it doesn’t appear it will have enough energy for precipitation.
A ridge of high pressure will follow Friday night through Saturday night for dry weather then a considerably stronger low will move inland through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday through Monday morning. Light rain still looks possible from Fresno County north with just a chance of light showers in the south valley.
Beyond Monday, a strong high will set up shop off the southern California coast and ridge far enough to the north to drive the storm track mainly into the Pacific Northwest for all of next week. Even the latest two week model indicates the chance of precipitation is low all the way through Christmas Day. The main challenge from Tuesday on will be fog and/or low clouds and their effects on temperatures. Temperatures above the low clouds will be well above average.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today with patchy fog. Partly cloudy tonight with areas of low clouds and fog developing. Partly cloudy Thursday with areas of morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Friday. Becoming mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and night with areas of fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with light rain becoming likely from Fresno County northward Sunday night through Monday morning with a slight chance of showers in the south valley. Mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Areas of low clouds and fog Tuesday night and Wednesday with partial afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/32/55/35/58 | Reedley 56/33/57/35/58 | Dinuba 54/32/57/34/58 | |
| Porterville 54/33/57/36/60 | Lindsay 55/32/57/33/59 | Delano 56/35/57/37/61 | |
| Bakersfield 57/38/62/45/64 | Taft 57/42/62/47/63 | Arvin 57/35/62/40/64 | |
| Lamont 57/35/62/40/64 | Pixley 55/32/56/35/58 | Tulare 54/32/57/34/57 | |
| Woodlake 55/32/57/36/58 | Hanford 56/33/57/36/59 | Orosi 55/32/57/35/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 38/59 |
Sunday
Light rain possible 45/62 |
Monday
AM rain possible 46/58 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 41/56 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 42/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 18 through December 24: This model now shows a blocking pattern as a high pressure system parks itself off the California coast, driving the storm track into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. The chance of rain will be low with temperatures above the valley floor running above average. Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by the amount of fog and low clouds.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Even though a weak frontal system will be moving through the valley Friday afternoon, dry conditions will continue as it simply falls apart as it enters central California. The next legitimate chance of rain will begin late Sunday as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest and its associated cold front moves through central California. It appears rain will be likely from Fresno County northward with only a chance of light showers in the south valley. Precipitation amounts from Fresno County north will likely be light with amounts probably totaling .25 or less. After Monday, we’ll enter a prolonged period of dry weather that should last through next week and into the following. The two week model out this morning indicates the chance of rain is low as persistent upper level high pressure will remain anchored off shore, deflecting the storm track well north.
Frost Discussion: What a mixed bag last night. it all depended on cloud cover. In Tulare County, most locations were in the low to mid 40s due to cloud cover. Madera and Fresno Counties were in the low to mid 30s as was a good portion of Kern County. Tonight will be another challenging forecast. The low clouds in Tulare and Kern Counties are dissipating with time. However, there’s another swath of low clouds in the lower Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys that’s extending southward. Needless to say, models did not pick up on this feature. This forecast will operate under the assumption that skies will be fair to partly cloudy tonight, allowing good radiational cooling to commence. All locations should be above freezing Friday and Saturday, as well. Above freezing conditions can also be expected Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday as a stronger system moves through. For Wednesday and beyond, dry weather will prevail with extensive fog and/or low clouds each day. For now, it looks like this will last through all of next week and the following week, as well, for above freezing conditions.
Longer term, models are not showing any chance of freeze or frost conditions through at least Christmas Day.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
33 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
33 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
34 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
35 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 70%/90%
Actual Humidity December 11, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 94%/68%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .11, Parlier .12, Blackwell .18, Lindcove .12, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .17, Porterville .12, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 69/18. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 490 -220
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.6 +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.92 season. or -.29, Month to Date: .15 -.36
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.20, or -.05. Month to Date: .52 +.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 210, Parlier, 238 , Arvin, 189 Shafter, 249 Stratford, 212, Delano NA, Lindcove, 327, Porterville, 472
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 53 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1500 / 56 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1544 / 49 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 46 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 3.87 121 0.91 28 3.21 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.05 115 0.98 37 2.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.69 114 1.03 44 2.35 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.42 99 0.32 13 2.45 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.92 87 0.37 17 2.21 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.71 96 0.37 21 1.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.20 96 0.03 2 1.25 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 127 0.16 16 1.03 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.87 149 0.75 29 2.60 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.84 129 0.25 11 2.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 76 0.09 4 2.56 13.95
Next report: Wednesday December 12/pm