December 11, 2018
Summary: Satellite imagery is depicting low clouds based at 3,200 feet over Porterville, Hanford, and Fresno. Most of Kern County is relatively clear as is Madera County and points northward. The low clouds along the eastern sector of the valley seem to be expanding towards the southwest. There’s only a minimal amount of higher clouds above the low cloud deck, but as you look upstream, some may make it over the top of a ridge of high pressure currently building in from the west. All this makes for a difficult temperature forecast tonight as so many variables will come into play.
First is a fairly robust northwest flow which, in part, is allowing skies to clear over the northern half of the valley and is infiltrating the remainder of the valley, but not enough for the lower level clouds to dissipate. Bottom line is: where skies clear tonight, temperatures will have no problem falling well into the 30s. Readings will remain in the low to mid 40s where clouds remain.
In the bigger picture, a low center is over eastern Utah and western Colorado and will combine with another low over Texas which will also turn into a potpourri of weather east of the Rockies. Weak upper level high pressure will be overhead Thursday and Thursday night then a weak wave of low pressure will move through northern California Friday afternoon and night with some increase in clouds, but little else.
The chance of rain Sunday night and Monday appears more likely now. Some models show a secondary low developing over central California just as the low moves on shore. This would result in heavier precipitation from Fresno north and a greater potential for showers in the south valley. Most, if not all, the activity should be over by Monday afternoon with plenty of upslope clouds against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains for a low cloud deck. Those clouds will cover the valley well into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will actually begin a prolonged period of dry weather which will probably last at least a week and quite possibly longer. After Tuesday, the main challenge will be extensive fog and/or low clouds with possible clearing each afternoon in some areas.
For the following week, the chance of rain will continue to be low. In fact, models going out through Christmas Day are indicating a generally dry pattern with above average temperatures in the foothill and coastal areas. Valley temperatures will be determined by the scope of the fog.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight with areas of ground fog developing. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night with areas of night and morning fog and/or low clouds. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday night with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with rain becoming likely Sunday night through Monday morning with the likelihood of light showers in the south valley. Mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning with areas of fog and low clouds developing Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon. Widespread fog and/or low clouds Wednesday with clearing possible in some areas during the afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/57/38/59 | Reedley 34/58/37/60 | Dinuba 31/57/36/57 | |
| Porterville 33/58/37/60 | Lindsay 31/58/37/60 | Delano 34/60/38/61 | |
| Bakersfield 40/61/45/63 | Taft 43/62/46/63 | Arvin 34/58/39/63 | |
| Lamont 34/61/41/63 | Pixley 32/60/38/62 | Tulare 32/57/38/59 | |
| Woodlake 33/58/38/59 | Hanford 33/59/38/61 | Orosi 31/57/38/59 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or below 15 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through most of Sunday. Rain will overspread the valley from Fresno County northward by later Sunday night and into the day Monday. It appears a secondary low will form along the cold front. This will increase the chance of showers over the south valley and also increase the chance of possibly heavier precipitation further north. Rainfall amounts could tally up to as much as .33 in Fresno and Madera Counties and .10 to .25 north of Kern County with perhaps up to .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. There may be some lingering showers Monday afternoon with dry weather returning Monday night. from Tuesday through all of next week, expect dry weather to prevail as a high develops off the west coast and eventually encompasses the western one third of the U.S.
Frost Discussion: The cloud pattern for tonight is an interesting challenge. Currently, there is a layer of cloud cover based at near 3,200 feet over parts of eastern Fresno County and much of Tulare and Kings Counties with generally clear skies over Kern County. This area of clouds seems to be regenerating and may be a player in tonight’s weather. Like last night, temperatures will be dictated by the amount of cloud cover. Where it’s relatively clear, temperatures will chill into the low to mid 30s. where cloud cover is more prevalent, upper 30s to mid 40s are more likely. Pretty much the same forecast for Friday morning, as well, although we may begin to see more high clouds ahead of a weak low moving through northern California. By the second half of the weekend, clouds will be increasing ahead of the next Pacific storm which will result in widespread precipitation over the region, thus above freezing conditions will continue. Residual cloud cover will keep temperatures acceptable Tuesday and Tuesday night. for Wednesday and beyond, a big ridge will cover the eastern Pacific and eventually will cover much of the western one third of the U.S. This will mean mostly clear skies over the higher elevations with the likelihood of low clouds and fog on the valley floor. Daytime and nighttime temperatures will be governed by the fog and low clouds. Generally speaking, a westerly flow will drive across the Pacific and into California for a mild winter pattern. Nothing suggests a particularly threatening pattern for the foreseeable future. Even the new two week model is calling for above average temperatures. Hopefully, this will turn out to be a December to remember.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
33 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
34 |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
34 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
34 |
Plainview
33 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Thursday morning/December 13