December 13, 2018
Summary: It has been quite some time since we’ve seen wall to wall sunshine throughout the valley, but satellite imagery indicates there’s not a cloud to be found. Visibilities are pretty good by December standards, running about 8 miles. Temperatures and dew points are averaging about a degree higher than 24 hours ago and are generally in the low to mid 50s. temperatures at many locations will easily eclipse the 60 degree mark.
The next challenge will be overnight low temperatures tonight. Satellite imagery shows clouds should begin to increase later in the night, slowing the radiational cooling process and reducing the amount of fog along with keeping most areas above freezing. The upper level high pressure currently overhead will be displaced eastward late Friday into Saturday as a weak trough of low pressure scoots through the Pacific Northwest and northern California with cloud cover being the main concern for central California.
Fresno County and points northward are still on track for rain. It seems that each set of model runs pushes back the timing of the precipitation. We could progress all the way through Sunday night before rain spreads over the area, Monday through Monday evening. Even though the timing is being pushed back a bit, rainfall estimates remain the same.
By Tuesday morning, the low will have moved into the Great Basin followed by what will become a strong high pressure center off the California coast, ridging into northern California by midweek. This high will be the champion weather maker next week for nothing but dry conditions and gorgeous weather over the foothill, mountain, and coastal areas. We all know mid December in the valley under a warm air inversion means fog and low clouds and lots of them. By Thursday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a low overcast covering the valley again with only local areas of clearing during the mid to late afternoon. That will be the daily forecast through next weekend, and again, more than likely through most of the following week as well as medium range models are very much leaning towards dry conditions.
Forecast: Mostly clear before midnight. Increasing high clouds during the early morning hours with increasing fog forming. Mostly cloudy Friday and Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday with night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday with night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. light rain from Fresno County northward Monday through Monday evening with light showers elsewhere. Mostly cloudy later Monday night through Tuesday morning with areas of fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday through Thursday above the valley floor with widespread fog and/or low clouds on the valley floor with a chance of afternoon clearing each day.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/59/34/60 | Reedley 34/58/33/61 | Dinuba 32/58/34/59 | |
| Porterville 34/62/34/63 | Lindsay 32/60/34/62 | Delano 36/64/35/64 | |
| Bakersfield 44/65/44/63 | Taft 46/66/45/64 | Arvin 40/66/42/62 | |
| Lamont 39/65/41/62 | Pixley 35/61/35/61 | Tulare 33/58/37/60 | |
| Woodlake 33/59/34/61 | Hanford 37/60/35/61 | Orosi 32/60/32/62 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or below 15 MPH through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: dry weather will continue through Sunday and possibly much of Sunday night. each model run is now indicating the timing of the rainfall will be pushed back some, so it now appears rain will overspread part of the valley Monday through Monday evening with light showers south of Fresno County. I still think perhaps .25 to .33 could occur in Fresno and Madera Counties with generally less than .25 in Kings and Tulare Counties with .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. After Monday evening, the spigot will be shut off as the storm track will be shoved well to the north and a center off the California coast. This will be the latest beginning of prolonged dry weather for central California, encompassing all of next week with the exception of Monday and quite likely most if not all of the following week. The latest medium range models go out through the 27th and are favoring a dry pattern with above average temperatures above the fog and low clouds on the valley floor.
Frost Discussion: My feeling now is most, and possibly all, locations will end up above freezing tonight, but I’ll go ahead and forecast the typically cold spots right near freezing. Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates a large area of mid and high level clouds is moving northeastward towards the southern and central California coast. These clouds should arrive early enough tonight to slow the radiational cooling process.
Saturday morning will also involve cloud cover. A weak trough of low pressure will be moving through to our north and should continue to throw at least some cloud cover over the area, so I’ll continue to go with above freezing conditions for Saturday.
All locations will be above freezing Sunday through Monday as clouds and precipitation move through our region.
There is a small possibility of low to mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday mornings, but that’s only if the sky is relatively clear. For now, it appears fog and low clouds will win the grand prize those mornings as a warm air inversion develops and fog and/or low clouds form, only clearing a bit in the afternoons. Ditto that for later next week and beyond. So, from a frost perspective, considering we’re entering what is historically the most dangerous time of the year, we’re doing pretty darn good.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
33 |
Ivanhoe
33 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
34 |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
33 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
33 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
31 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
34 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
34 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Friday morning/December 14