December 13, 2018
Summary: A ribbon of fog has developed mainly along the west side of the valley this morning from northwest Kern County up through eastern Merced County. Currently, there are two high pressure systems. One is roughly right above us. It has driven the freezing level back up to 12,400 feet. The second is a surface high currently centered over the Great Basin which is generating an off shore flow. That’s why the fog is mainly along the west side this morning. The high will maintain its grip over central California through Friday. A weak trough will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California late Friday and Friday night, increasing cloud cover over central California but little else. From late Saturday into Sunday, another weak ridge will move through for a continuation of dry weather.
Most models this morning indicate the next weather system will be strong enough to spread mainly light precipitation over the area later Sunday night and Monday. It appears the system’s dynamics will be strong enough to spread precipitation into the northern mountains of southern California, including Kern County. As of this juncture, it appears that from Fresno County northward .25 and upward cannot be ruled out, sloping down to .10 or less over the valley portion of Kern County.
By Tuesday, a strong ridge will be developing off the southern California coast, ridging northeastward and driving the storm track into the Pacific Northwest. If models are correct, Tuesday will be the first day of a prolonged period of dry weather as high pressure over the eastern Pacific and most of the western United States will set up a warm air inversion over the valley for ideal conditions for increasing amounts of fog and low clouds. By Thursday, we will more than likely get into a situation where just local clearing will occur during the afternoon. Temperatures will depend upon fog coverage, but int eh foothills and coastal areas well above average temperatures will be the norm with lots of sunshine.
The two week outlook is indicating a generally dry pattern all the way out through the 26th. At least no particularly cold pattern shows up on models, which would preclude any chance of a freeze occurring. The most dangerous time of year for troublesome cold weather is from now through mid January. But so far, everything is looking fine.
Forecast: Areas of dense fog, mainly along the west side, this morning. Otherwise, hazy sunshine will prevail. Mostly clear tonight before midnight with some possible increasing higher clouds by sunrise. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday through Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon and night with areas of fog developing after midnight, lasting into Sunday morning. Increasing clouds Sunday. Rain likely Sunday night, especially after midnight. Periods of rain Monday, especially during the morning. A chance of showers Monday afternoon. Partly to most cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon and night with some possible low clouds in the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. Expect extensive low clouds and fog Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with possible afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/33/59/37/61 | Reedley 59/34/60/40/61 | Dinuba 58/33/58/38/59 | |
| Porterville 61/34/60/38/61 | Lindsay 61/32/59/38/61 | Delano 61/36/63/42/63 | |
| Bakersfield 64/42/65/43/65 | Taft 62/46/65/56/64 | Arvin 65/37/65/40/64 | |
| Lamont 63/37/65/40/65 | Pixley 61/34/60/38/61 | Tulare 59/33/58/37/59 | |
| Woodlake 59/32/59/37/60 | Hanford 60/34/61/37/61 | Orosi 60/32/60/37/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
PM rain likely 47/64 |
Monday
AM rain likely 46/59 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 42/56 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 42/54 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 44/54 |
Two Week Outlook: December 20 through December 26: This model now shows a blocking pattern as a high pressure system parks itself off the California coast, driving the storm track into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. The chance of rain will be low with temperatures above the valley floor running above average. Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by the amount of fog and low clouds.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Dry conditions will continue through probably Sunday. Rain will spread southeastward, reaching as far south as Fresno County during the late evening hours with light showers spreading over the remainder of the valley from midnight through Monday morning with a chance of lingering showers Monday afternoon. It still appears rainfall amounts in Madera and Fresno Counties could tally up to between .25 and .33 with .25 or less in Kings and Tulare Counties and generally .10 or less over the valley portion of Kern County. This will be a one storm event as a strong ridge develops behind this system and sets up a prolonged period of dry weather beginning Monday night and lasting through all of next week and more than likely well into the following week. The latest two week model is not encouraging as it indicates largely dry weather from the 20th through the 26th.
Frost Discussion: The coldest temperature I could find as of 7:00am was 30 degrees at Ivanhoe and 31 at west Lindsay with several other locations right at 32. Generally speaking, widespread low to mid 30s were evident.
Lows tonight will depend on the arrival of higher clouds which are currently located several hundred miles off the southern and central California coast. These clouds may not even arrive tonight at all, which would mean conditions tonight will be very much like last night and this morning with widespread low to mid 30s.
Most locations should be above freezing Saturday morning due to higher clouds. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday should be above freezing due to clouds and precipitation Sunday night and Monday morning. It’s possible we could see low to mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Beginning Tuesday, a big ridge of high pressure will build over California and off shore, creating a warm air inversion. Assuming we receive another shot of precipitation, conditions will be ideal for extensive fog and/or low clouds Wednesday through the rest of next week. Local areas of afternoon clearing are a possibility.
The medium range outlook going out through the 26th is indicating there will generally be a westerly flow across the Pacific and into California, keeping temperatures well above average over the foothills and coastal areas and temperatures in the valley being governed by fog and low clouds.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
34 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
33 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
35 |
Lamont
37 |
Plainview
33 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
34 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 70%/90%
Actual Humidity December 11, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 94%/68%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .11, Parlier .12, Blackwell .18, Lindcove .12, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .17, Porterville .12, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 69/18. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 490 -220
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.6 +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.92 season. or -.29, Month to Date: .15 -.36
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.20, or -.05. Month to Date: .52 +.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 210, Parlier, 238 , Arvin, 189 Shafter, 249 Stratford, 212, Delano NA, Lindcove, 327, Porterville, 472
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 53 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1500 / 56 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1544 / 49 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 46 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 3.87 121 0.91 28 3.21 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.05 115 0.98 37 2.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.69 114 1.03 44 2.35 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.42 99 0.32 13 2.45 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.92 87 0.37 17 2.21 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.71 96 0.37 21 1.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.20 96 0.03 2 1.25 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 127 0.16 16 1.03 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.87 149 0.75 29 2.60 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.84 129 0.25 11 2.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 76 0.09 4 2.56 13.95
Next report: Thursday December 13/pm