December 28, 2018
Summary: Almost all of the low clouds that were clinging to the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains have now dissipated. Mostly clear skies prevail over the bulk of the valley this morning with chilly temperatures, mostly ranging in the lower 30s, with a few upper 20s. The low which yesterday was moving through the Great Basin is now over Arizona. Upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean off shore.
The winds aloft are currently out of the northwest. By midday, they will be out of the north and out of the northeast by this evening. A surface high resides over the Great Basin, creating an off shore surface flow. The origins of the air mass moving into our region is from western Canada, which of course is cold, but not nearly as cold as it could be if the origins were from Alaska or the Yukon. Still, widespread mid to upper 20s are likely tonight through Monday night as winds blow down the Sacramento Valley then southward into the western San Joaquin Valley and slowly create a cold, dry air mass on the valley floor. There will be pockets of fog here and there during the early to mid morning hours, but they will dissipate. More on all of this in the frost discussion below.
I am very closely watching modeling for the period beginning New Year’s Eve as the eastern Pacific high ridges northward into Alaska. A new low will develop over the Desert Southwest, possibly even more towards Mexico, creating a north/south flow which will move modified arctic air into the western U.S. Currently, California, according to most models this morning, will be on the western edge of this air mass. I cannot rule out some of this air filtering downslope off the Sierra or down the Sacramento Valley and into the west side. Most models show temperatures lowering during the overnight hours New Year’s morning and more especially Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Most models portray a mid 20s to lower 30s event, but I must say I’m a bit nervous as these new models are now favorable for this air to infiltrate to the ground.
As far as precipitation is concerned, there will be none through at least the sixth of January. After that, there is a low chance we may see a few showers and possibly a greater potential of rain after that.
Forecast: Other than a few high clouds at times and patchy late night and early morning fog, it will be mostly clear through New Year’s Eve. Mostly clear New Year’s Day through Friday and cold.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/27/52/27/53 | Reedley 50/26/52/26/52 | Dinuba 49/26/51/26/51 | |
| Porterville 50/27/52/27/53 | Lindsay 51/26/52/26/53 | Delano 51/28/52/28/53 | |
| Bakersfield 51/32/54/32/55 | Taft 52/33/53/34/55 | Arvin 51/28/54/27/55 | |
| Lamont 51/28/54/28/55 | Pixley 50/26/52/26/52 | Tulare 49/26/50/26/52 | |
| Woodlake 50/27/52/27/52 | Hanford 51/28/52/28/52 | Orosi 49/26/51/26/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 29/53 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 28/54 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 26/52 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 29/56 |
Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 29/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10: This model indicates a ridge of high pressure will be over the area during the first part of this period. After that, there will be a chance of rain after the sixth. If this precipitation occurs, it will be from lower latitude storms, so expect temperatures to climb to above average.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday night. It’s still possible, however, that along the Interstate 5 corridor, there may be some localized gusty north to northeast winds through Saturday. For Sunday night and Monday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts then turn northerly along the west side New Year’s Day.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the remainder of the year and quite possibly for the first five days of January.
Frost Discussion: The low clouds along the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains have all cleared, leaving some high thin clouds streaming overhead from the north. Low pressure is now centered over northern Arizona with the eastern Pacific high building into western British Columbia. This has set up a northerly flow over California with the air mass originating in western Canada, but of course modifying as it moves south. Even so, it is a cold air mass. Drier air continues to infiltrate the valley, first moving into the west side then drifting over the remainder of the valley. Dew points should lower into the low to mid 30s, meaning a strong radiational cooling event will take place the next few nights. I do anticipate widespread mid to upper 20s the next few nights with hillsides in the low to mid 30s. coldest unprotected low lying locations will chill down to 24 to 25 tonight with most other locations from 26 to 29 degrees.
The inversion tonight will be weak to moderate with temperatures at 34 feet from 3 to 5 degrees warmer at most locations.
For Sunday and Monday mornings, expect temperatures equally as cold. On Monday, that eastern Pacific high off shore will ridge northward into Alaska while low pressure resides over the Desert Southwest, creating a north to south flow into the western United States all the way into the Midwest. California shows up on the western fringe of this flow, so now what we have is a greater possibility of this air making it into the valley. For now, most models are projecting a mid to upper 20s event beginning New Year’s morning and possibly even colder Wednesday and Thursday, depending on how much of this modified arctic air eventually settles into the region. We may still luck out and have the air mass move just east of the Sierra Nevada, which does occur on many occasions. At any rate, it appears below freezing weather will continue for the first four or five days of January. We had such a mild December, I guess we were just plain overdue.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
25 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
27 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
25 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
27 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
28 |
Maricopa
26 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 65%/90%, Bakersfield: 55%/80%
Actual Humidity December 27, 2018: Delano, 99%/65% Porterville, 97%/74%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .24, Parlier .16, Blackwell .27, Lindcove .13, Arvin .26, Orange Cove .17, Porterville .16, Delano .23 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 54, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 66/24. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 733 -312
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.5 +4.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.33 season. or -.86, Month to Date: .56 -.93
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.30, or -.51. Month to Date: .62 -.25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 322, Parlier, 352 , Arvin, 278 Shafter, 370 Stratford, 333, Delano 343, Lindcove, 529, Porterville, 728
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 4:51 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 52 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 35 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 49 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 53 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 57 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 5.88 133 0.96 22 4.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.49 119 1.03 27 3.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.87 120 1.11 34 3.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.99 87 0.41 12 3.45 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.33 73 0.41 13 3.19 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.87 67 0.41 15 2.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.30 72 0.07 4 1.81 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.57 107 0.16 11 1.47 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.77 131 0.78 21 3.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.60 108 0.27 8 3.34 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.74 74 0.12 3 3.72 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/December 28