January 1, 2019
Summary: Mid to upper 20s were widespread last night and tonight will be colder. Already this morning Rio Bravo was down to 23 degrees with 26 at west Porterville and in Ivanhoe. All other locations were generally 27 to 29.
The low is now centered over northern Arizona with a high pressure ridge extending off shore into western Canada. We now have a 110 knot jet stream above us out of the northeast coupled with a strong off shore flow. This is pumping very dry and cold air into California. I won’t discuss overnight lows here. I’ll save that for the frost discussion.
The freezing level went from near 11,000 feet 36 hours ago to 4,900 feet overnight. That illustrates very well the air mass moving into our region.
There is good news in this. That is the fact that the pattern will begin to change as early as Wednesday afternoon. Models have shown, and continue to show, a flat zone of upper level high pressure developing across the eastern Pacific and breaking into the western United States, turning the winds from northeast to westerly by Thursday and southwesterly by Friday.
Models are very inconclusive on the pattern for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. One model shows a powerful low off the northern California coast by late Friday night then shows it moving inland, spreading precipitation over the region Saturday night and Sunday. Some models are showing tropical moisture moving northeastward, mainly into southern California. For now, we’ll just call for an increasing chance of rain for the second half of the weekend. It’s also possible we could see another trough move through Monday, possibly renewing the chance of precipitation.
Beyond Monday, there are too many model differences to try to nail down a specific pattern. I can say, though, that no model shows a return to cold weather.
Forecast: Mostly clear and cold through Wednesday. Mostly clear and a little warmer Thursday and Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday leading to a chance of rain Saturday night through Sunday night. mostly to partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/23/53/25/54 | Reedley 51/24/53/25/55 | Dinuba 50/22/53/24/53 | |
| Porterville 53/23/54/25/55 | Lindsay 51/22/53/24/55 | Delano 53/25/54/26/56 | |
| Bakersfield 51/28/55/30/57 | Taft 52/29/55/34/58 | Arvin 52/25/55/27/58 | |
| Lamont 53/26/54/28/57 | Pixley 51/23/54/25/55 | Tulare 51/23/53/25/54 | |
| Woodlake 52/24/54/25/55 | Hanford 53/25/54/28/56 | Orosi 51/22/53/24/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 35/59 |
Saturday
PM rain possible 41/56 |
Sunday
Chance of rain 47/54 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 43/59 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/60 |
Two Week Outlook: January 7 through January 13: This model indicates a higher potential for rain during this time frame. It’s possible lower latitude storms could affect the area. With generally a westerly flow, expect temperatures to run above average.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Friday. The exception will be today along the I-5 corridor where winds of 10 to 20 MPH will be possible with stronger gusts.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Friday night and most likely into Saturday. My confidence level for the weekend is low as models vary a great deal. One model had shown precipitation spreading over southern California now indicates a powerful low will be off the northern California coast by Friday night, spreading rain into the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday with possibly another fast moving trough on Monday. I still have to use that meteorologist word called “chance” for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night with a slight chance of showers Monday. Most models show us drying up again Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Frost Discussion: This morning’s lows were widespread in the mid to upper 20s. The real wake up call was Rio Bravo which had dipped to 23 degrees by 7:00am. West Porterville and Ivanhoe were next in line at 26. Conditions will be more favorable tonight for a very hard freeze. The potential of this air mass is coldest locations could be down to 20 to 23 degrees with most locations between 23 and 27. Hillsides will be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. The inversion tonight will be moderate with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Coldest unprotected locations tonight should fall to 32 by 7:00pm and 28 by about midnight, although I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a few low spots hit 28 before that. Most locations will not rise to above 28 until about 9:00am or so.
For Thursday morning, I look for minor modification of the air mass. By Wednesday night, the northeast flow currently aggravating us will become westerly as a flat zone of upper level high pressure builds in from the west with much milder wind moving in aloft. That will eventually mix down to the surface, bringing temperatures up.
We should begin to see cloud cover Friday making its triumphant return and helping to modify the situation. The weekend will be above freezing with a chance of rain during the later half of the weekend and even a chance of rain.
For now, there’s nothing on models medium range suggesting a repeat performance of what is currently taking place.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
23 |
Porterville
23 |
Ivanhoe
21 |
Woodlake
24 |
| Strathmore
23 |
McFarland
22 |
Ducor
24 |
Tea Pot Dome
23 |
| Lindsay
21 |
Exeter
22 |
Famoso
25 |
Madera
23 |
| Belridge
22 |
Delano
25 |
North Bakersfield
25 |
Orosi
22 |
| Orange Cove
23 |
Lindcove
22 |
Lindcove Hillside
29 |
Sanger River Bottom
20 |
| Root Creek
21 |
Venice Hill
24 |
Rosedale
25 |
Jasmine
24 |
| Arvin
25 |
Lamont
25 |
Plainview
23 |
Mettler
28 |
| Edison
25 |
Maricopa
23 |
Holland Creek
27 |
Tivy Valley
23 |
| Kite Road South
26 |
Kite Road North
23 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 55%/85%, Bakersfield: 45%/75%
Actual Humidity December 31, 2018: Delano, 97%/66% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .35, Parlier .29, Blackwell .39, Lindcove .25, Arvin .30, Orange Cove .28, Porterville .NA, Delano .31 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 55, Porterville NA, Delano 48
Record Temperatures: 69/21. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 823 -309
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 48.6 +4.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.33 season. or -1.14, Month to Date: .56 -1.21
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.30, or -.66. Month to Date: .62 -.40
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 391, Parlier, 419 , Arvin, 345 Shafter, 440 Stratford, 398, Delano 413, Lindcove, 604, Porterville, 779
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 52 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 52 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1527 / 50 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 51 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 52 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 48 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 5.88 124 0.96 20 4.73 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.49 110 1.03 25 4.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.87 110 1.11 32 3.51 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.99 80 0.41 11 3.73 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.33 67 0.41 12 3.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.87 60 0.41 13 3.13 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.30 66 0.07 4 1.96 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.57 97 0.16 10 1.62 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.77 122 0.78 20 3.91 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.60 98 0.27 7 3.66 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.74 68 0.12 3 4.05 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/January 1