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Forecast

January 1, 2019/pm report

January 1, 2019

Summary:  Some peculiar things have been occurring today as far as overnight low temperature potential is concerned.  This is discussed in detail below.

Low pressure both at the surface and aloft stretches from the Dakotas down into northern Baja while upper level high pressure covers the eastern and central Pacific with a ridge extending into western Canada.  The squeeze play between the two is keeping the winds aloft out of the north/northeast.  Dew points have fallen into the lower 20s up in the Sacramento Valley but they’ve been pretty much hanging in there in the San Joaquin Valley.

Some lower level clouds have actually formed in eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties down to the Kern County line which is quite odd.  Elsewhere, skies are clear.  Obviously a strong radiational cooling event will occur tonight with widespread mid to upper 20s and some lower 20s possible.  The north/northeast flow in part responsible for the cold wave will suddenly shift as a flat zone of upper level high pressure develops over the eastern Pacific and extends into the western U.S.  The winds aloft will turn west to east, pumping much milder air into California, thus beginning the modification process Friday morning after another cold one Thursday morning.

For the second model run in a row, some of the old reliable models are showing a powerful Pacific storm off the northern California coast Friday night then show it moving inland Saturday afternoon through Sunday.  On paper, this could actually be a significant precipitation event, especially over the mountain areas.  There’s still a lot of time top elapse between now and the weekend, however if this trend continues perhaps we’ll get some much needed precipitation.  Unfortunately, for now, once this storm goes through early next week, the spigot will be turned off as a ridge builds off shore and extends inland to the west, driving the storm track well to the north.

 

Forecast: Lower level clouds along the foothills in Fresno and Tulare Counties through this evening, otherwise it will be mostly clear and cold tonight with patchy fog developing.  Patchy fog and low clouds Wednesday morning, otherwise mostly clear.  Mostly clear and cold again Thursday night with patchy fog and clouds developing.  Becoming partly cloudy Friday and Friday night.  increasing cloudiness Saturday with an increasing chance of rain in the afternoon.  Rain likely at times Saturday night through Sunday.  A chance of showers Sunday night.  mostly to partly cloudy Monday with areas of fog.  Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday with areas of morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 24/52/27/55 Reedley 25/52/27/56 Dinuba 24/51/27/55
Porterville 25/53/28/56 Lindsay 24/51/26/56 Delano 26/53/28/56
Bakersfield 29/54/32/58 Taft 31/54/34/59 Arvin 25/54/28/56
Lamont 26/53/29/58 Pixley 25/52/27/55 Tulare 24/52/27/54
Woodlake 25/53/28/56 Hanford 26/53/28/57 Orosi 24/51/27/56

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Friday.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through Friday night and possibly into Saturday.  Models continue to hint at a very strong low both at the surface and aloft being off the northern California coast late Friday night through Saturday morning.  This storm will move inland Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Assuming models have a handle on this, we could pick up some significant amounts of rain on the valley floor, but more especially over the mountain areas.  There will be a decreasing chance of showers by Sunday night.  from Monday through Thursday of next week, it looks like we could see dry weather, but the new two week model is showing a better than average chance of precipitation.

 

Frost Discussion: It has been quite an interesting afternoon observing dew points.  They are actually higher than they were 24 hours ago and are above the 40 degree mark from Porterville north to Madera.  From Terra Bella southward through Kern County, dew points are much lower and range in the low to mid 30s.  because of the higher dew points situation, I’m going to nudge my numbers up a bit so they won’t look quite as scary as those from this morning.  Keep in  mind, though, dew points have fallen into the upper 20s along the west side and in other general areas.  It’s possible some of this drier air could creep into the east side.  For now, it appears lowest unprotected river bottom and like locations could dip down to 23 to 24 degrees tonight with most locations between 24 and 27.  Hillsides could be in the low 30s.  the inversion tonight should be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

Coldest unprotected locations may reach 32 degrees between 7 and 8 pm and 28 degrees by 11 pm to midnight.  They won’t rise above 28 until 8:30 to 9:00am Wednesday morning.

 

On Thursday morning, there will be minor modification in temperatures, however widespread mid to upper 20s is expected.  Upper 20s and lower 30s are possible Friday morning and, if clouds arrive, readings in some locations may only be in the lower 30s.

A fundamental change will occur in the pattern late Wednesday through Friday.  The cold low currently over Arizona will slowly pull off to the east while a flat zone of  high pressure develops over the eastern Pacific and into the western United States.  This will create a west to east flow which would move much milder air in aloft.  By late Friday, clouds will be increasing so above freezing conditions can be expected over the weekend with above freezing conditions continuing through at least the middle part of next week and quite possibly beyond.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

25

Porterville

25

Ivanhoe

23

Woodlake

25

Strathmore

24

McFarland

23

Ducor

26

Tea Pot Dome

25

Lindsay

23

Exeter

24

Famoso

25

Madera

24

Belridge

24

Delano

26

North Bakersfield

26

Orosi

23

Orange Cove

25

Lindcove

24

Lindcove Hillside

32

Sanger River Bottom

21

Root Creek

23

Venice Hill

25

Rosedale

26

Jasmine

24

Arvin

25

Lamont

26

Plainview

24

Mettler

30

Edison

25

Maricopa

23

Holland Creek

29

Tivy Valley

25

Kite Road South

28

Kite Road North

25

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next report: Tuesday night/Wednesday morning/January 1/2