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Forecast

January 2, 2019/pm report

January 2, 2019

Summary:  Air temperatures this afternoon are generally running 2 to 5 degrees higher than yesterday at this time.  On the flip side, however, dew points are generally 3 to 5 degrees lower than 24 hours ago and are generally in the low to mid 30s.  As you may recall, some dew points at this time yesterday were in the lower 40s.

 

The overall weather pattern is rapidly changing.  We still have a northerly flow moving into California, but that will change tonight through Friday as a flat zone of upper level high pressure stretches across the eastern Pacific and into the western U.S.  this will turn the winds zonal, or west to east, into California, pumping in much warmer air aloft.  This will translate into warmer afternoon temperatures, as well, and will finally start dragging up overnight temperatures beginning Friday.

 

We are still on track for a major Pacific storm to pound northern California Saturday through Sunday.  Some models this afternoon show the surface low moving inland a bit further north, reducing the chance of gusty winds in the south valley and along the west side though I’m by no means eliminating that possibility.  As soon as this tightly wound low moves into northern California, it will open up into a trough extending southward through central and southern California.  Periods of rain will begin later Saturday afternoon, continuing Saturday night and Sunday.  Just a chance of showers will exist Sunday night and Monday as a secondary trough isn’t really showing up on models this afternoon.

 

By midweek, a powerful low is projected by models to be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, digging a trough southward into California.  It’s unclear at this time how far south precipitation will spread, but it’s very possible at least a small chance of showers exists for Wednesday into Thursday.

 

Overall, medium range models show upper level high pressure fairly dominant over the western states and off shore.  The chance of precipitation later next week looks fairly dim at this time.  Even so, there are many differences in medium range models.  One thing they do agree on, though, is the fact that any cold air masses diving south will do so well to the east of California.

 

Forecast: Clear skies and cold tonight.  Clear skies with a warming trend Thursday and Thursday night.  becoming partly cloudy Friday and Friday night.  increasing cloudiness Saturday.  Expect periods of rain later Saturday afternoon through Sunday.  A small chance of showers Sunday night.  mostly to partly cloudy Monday.  Areas of fog and low clouds Tuesday morning, otherwise it will be partly cloudy.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday with a small chance of showers.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 28/56/30/59 Reedley 28/55/30/60 Dinuba 27/55/29/59
Porterville 28/57/30/61 Lindsay 27/56/30/61 Delano 28/57/31/62
Bakersfield 32/59/35/63 Taft 38/60/40/63 Arvin 29/59/32/63
Lamont 30/58/34/63 Pixley 28/55/31/62 Tulare 27/54/30/59
Woodlake 29/56/31/61 Hanford 29/56/32/61 Orosi 28/55/31/61

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.  Winds Friday night will be out of the south to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH Saturday with stronger gusts along the west side.  There will be a chance of strong, gusty winds near the base of the Kern County mountains.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through Friday night and quite possibly into Saturday morning.  Periods of rain will spread over the valley later Saturday afternoon, continuing on and off through Sunday.  There will be a small chance of showers Sunday night with dry weather returning Monday through Tuesday night.  another storm will approach the coast Wednesday.  For now, we’ll just call this one a small chance of rain.  Currently, there are just too many differences between models to nail this one down at this time.

 

Frost Discussion: Mother Nature is indicating a rather mixed bag this afternoon with air temperatures up 3 to 5 degrees over yesterday’s readings at this time.  However, in many cases dew points are lower by about the same amount and are running in the low to mid 30s.  Today has been cloudless and clear skies will continue tonight.  This will lead to strong radiational cooling which will then lead to widespread mid to upper 20s with most locations in the 27 to 29 degree range.  A few unprotected low spots could possibly drop down to 24 to 25 degrees.  Hillsides will generally be in the low to mid 30s.

 

The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer.

 

Looking ahead to Friday morning, I do look for some modification as much warmer air will be moving in aloft.  The off shore flow will turn on shore, theoretically slowly nudging dew points up with most locations Friday morning ranging from 28 degrees in those cold low spots to 29 to 34 elsewhere.  Clouds will be increasing by Saturday morning for the first day of above freezing conditions.  We should remain above freezing for the following week to ten days.  For now, any modeling shows polar air masses moving in to our east.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

28

McFarland

27

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

27

Exeter

28

Famoso

30

Madera

28

Belridge

37

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

24

Root Creek

26

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

30

Jasmine

29

Arvin

28

Lamont

29

Plainview

28

Mettler

Af

Edison

28

Maricopa

27

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

27

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next report: Thursday morning/January 3