January 2, 2019
Summary: It was quite cold overnight. Just got an email from a grower who told me it was down to 23 degrees at the Delano Airport with a dewpoint of 20. I noted Maricopa was down to 25 with many locations in the 26 to 28 degree range. No doubt there was a frog pond out there somewhere with a low down to 22 or so. Tonight’s forecast is detailed below in the frost discussion.
Very temporarily, we have a low over eastern Arizona with a big ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific ridging into western Canada. That keeps the north/south flow going, however it’s no longer a northeast to southwest flow as it was 24 hours ago. Thirty six hours ago the freezing level was 5700 feet above Vandenberg. Overnight last night, the freezing level jumped up to 10,300 feet so obviously warmer air is moving in aloft.
By this evening, the off shore high will begin to build into northern and central California, shutting off the pipeline of modified arctic air. By Thursday, the winds aloft will be westerly then southwesterly Friday ahead of what some models are hinting at as a very intense low possibly centering just west of the Golden Gate by Saturday afternoon. When it moves inland, the low center will open up into a trough which will extend over all of California. Periods of precipitation can be expected Saturday afternoon.
There will also be a period late Friday night through Saturday morning when there will be the possibility of strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley and up the west side as significant pressure differences show up between the high deserts and the low off shore. It’s not officially in the forecast yet, but that possibility is certainly worth mentioning.
There will be a brief break Sunday night into Monday. However, some models are showing a weaker wave of low pressure moving in on the heels of the first system. Most of the models also show a trough of low pressure digging southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California about the middle of next week. This is new on models so we’ll find out as the days go by whether there is any credence to this. Also, models are not showing a particularly cold pattern through at least mid January. So, hopefully by the weekend we can give the wind machines a break and get a bit more sleep.
Forecast: Clear skies and cool weather today. Clear and cold again tonight. mostly clear Thursday through Friday with a warming trend. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. rain at times becoming likely Saturday afternoon through Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night and Monday. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday with a slight chance of showers.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/28/56/30/60 | Reedley 52/28/57/31/61 | Dinuba 51/27/55/30/60 | |
| Porterville 54/29/57/21/62 | Lindsay 54/27/57/30/61 | Delano 54/28/58/32/61 | |
| Bakersfield 55/32/59/36/63 | Taft 56/37/60/40/63 | Arvin 56/28/61/32/63 | |
| Lamont 55/29/61/32/62 | Pixley 54/27/59/31/61 | Tulare 53/27/56/30/60 | |
| Woodlake 53/26/56/31/61 | Hanford 53/29/57/32/60 | Orosi 52/27/55/30/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
PM rain 44/59 |
Sunday
Periods of rain 47/56 |
Monday
Chance of showers 43/57 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 38/61 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 44/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 9 through January 15: This model indicates a higher potential for rain during this time frame. It’s possible lower latitude storms could affect the area. With generally a westerly flow, expect temperatures to run above average.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Friday. This note, however: some models are showing an intense low just west of the Golden Gate Friday night and Saturday morning. If this occurs, significant differences in pressure between the high deserts of California and that low to our northwest could conceivably generate strong, gusty winds in the south valley and, to a lesser extent, along the west side. This is something we will keep a sharp eye on as we progress through the week.
Rain: There is lots of good news in the rainfall department. If models have a handle on this, an intense low pressure system both at the surface and aloft will be centered just west of the Golden Gate late Friday night and Saturday morning. Once it begins to move inland, it will open up into a trough of low pressure which will pinwheel bands of precipitation inland through central California Saturday afternoon through Sunday. This could be accompanied by strong winds which might lower rainfall expectations, but it appears the mountain areas will do well. Some are showing a second wave of low pressure moving behind the first, renewing showers on Monday with possibly a third trough moving through central California about the middle of next week.
Frost Discussion: Definitely a cold one last night. Most locations chilled down to 26 to 28 degrees. One grower reported to me this morning that the Delano Air Port chilled down to 23 and one of the Maricopa locations reported a temperature of 25. No doubt there were unprotected low spots out there that were down to 22 to 23 or so. Minor modification will begin tonight, however widespread temperatures between 26 and 29 degrees are expected. With the air mass now entrenched on the valley floor, daytime highs will warm first then they will slowly drag up overnight lows.
The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Overall, the pattern that brought this air mass to the valley is already changing. There have been significant jumps in the freezing level as the winds aloft slowly become westerly over the next 36 hours. Upper level high pressure will build into northern and central California tonight through Friday then an intense low pressure system should center just west of San Francisco Friday night and Saturday morning with cloud cover and winds. Periods of rain will begin Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday with well above average conditions. We could experience two more systems, one about Monday and another Wednesday for more shots at rain, but the best part of this will be well above average temperatures well into next week. As of now, there’s nothing on models to indicate another cold weather episode on the horizon through mid January.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
29 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 40%/100%, Bakersfield: 35%/95%
Actual Humidity January 1, 2019: Delano, 99%/36% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .35, Parlier .30, Blackwell .42, Lindcove .27, Arvin .33, Orange Cove .30, Porterville .NA, Delano .33 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 46, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 48, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 70/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 849 -304
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 39.0 -5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.33 season. or -1.22, Month to Date: .00 -.08
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.30, or -.70. Month to Date: .00 -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 411, Parlier, 439 , Arvin, 364 Shafter, 459 Stratford, 416, Delano 432, Lindcove, 624, Porterville, 798
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 52 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 33 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 26 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 51 / 27 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 51 / 31 / 0.00
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 51 / 30 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 51 / 26 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 49 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 5.88 122 0.96 20 4.81 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.49 108 1.03 25 4.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.87 107 1.11 31 3.62 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.99 78 0.41 11 3.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.33 66 0.41 12 3.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.87 58 0.41 13 3.23 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.30 65 0.07 4 2.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.57 94 0.16 10 1.67 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.77 120 0.78 20 3.99 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.60 96 0.27 7 3.75 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.74 66 0.12 3 4.14 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/January 2