January 3, 2019
Summary: Cloudless skies and a relatively cold but more importantly dry air mass led to strong radiational cooling again last night with widespread mid to upper 20s through the citrus belt. Daytime highs today will begin to inch upwards with some locations, especially in Kern County, possibly enjoying 60 degree weather. With these dry air masses that get stuck in the valley, daytime temperatures warm first with overnight lows only slowly following suit. Minor modification is expected tonight.
In the broad picture, upper level high pressure from the eastern Pacific has now moved inland over California. By this evening, the winds aloft will be out of the west, pumping much warmer air in aloft. The freezing level overnight at Vandenberg was up to 11,700 feet. The winds aloft Friday will become southwesterly ahead of a major low pressure system which will bring significant amounts of precipitation to the northern half of California. One to two feet of new snow is expected in the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite north with lesser amounts further south. The low will actually move into northwest California Saturday then will open up into a trough of low pressure, resulting in precipitation for most of California. The greatest risk of rain will be Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Following the trough passage will be a moist westerly flow. Some models indicate there’s a weak wave within this flow that may result in showers Monday, mainly from Fresno County northward.
We’ll see a brief reprieve in the precipitation Monday night and Tuesday with the possibility of some fog and low clouds Tuesday morning. Models paint a powerful Pacific storm off the Oregon/northern California coast Wednesday, possibly moving a strong cold front through Wednesday and Wednesday night. on paper, this looks like a significant winter storm which may result in a great amount of precip for the valley with heavy higher elevation snow. As per usual, much could change between now and then
After next Wednesday night, upper level high pressure shows up on most models, driving the storm track further north. However, the latest two week model indicates there’s a reasonably good chance of above average precipitation next weekend and beyond.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today. Mostly clear with occasional high clouds mixing in tonight,. Becoming partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday leading to periods of rain Saturday afternoon through Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night and Monday then mostly to partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness by late Tuesday night with possible rain again Wednesday into Thursday. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/29/61/39/55 | Reedley 58/29/60/39/54 | Dinuba 56/28/59/40/55 | |
| Porterville 59/29/62/41/57 | Lindsay 59/28/60/39/56 | Delano 59/29/62/41/57 | |
| Bakersfield 61/34/64/43/60 | Taft 60/41/64/44/59 | Arvin 61/29/65/42/60 | |
| Lamont 60/30/64/42/59 | Pixley 57/29/61/40/55 | Tulare 57/28/59/40/55 | |
| Woodlake 57/29/60/39/55 | Hanford 58/30/61/41/56 | Orosi 58/28/60/40.55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
PM rain 44/59 |
Sunday
Periods of rain 47/56 |
Monday
Chance of showers 43/57 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 38/61 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 44/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 10 through January 16: This model continues to indicate above average precipitation during this period, especially over the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest. Generally speaking, the flow aloft during this period will be out of the west or southwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday. Winds Friday night will become out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County northward and along the west side. Winds Sunday will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, decreasing Sunday night.
Rain: The chance of rain will rapidly increase Saturday afternoon, becoming likely Saturday night and Sunday. Showers may continue on from mainly Fresno County north Sunday night and Monday as a moist westerly flow follows the trough. Rainfall amounts from Saturday afternoon through Sunday should range about .25 to .33 in Madera County and eastern Fresno Counties with lesser amounts along the west side due to rain shadows. Tulare County, especially close to the foothills, should average .25 or less. Over the valley portion of Kern County, perhaps .10 to .15.
Medium range models indicate a major Pacific storm will be off the Oregon/northern California coast about Wednesday of next week. Much could change between now and then as we are still six days out, however, for now it looks like a major winter storm with the possibility of heavy snow in the mountains and significant amounts of rain over portions of the valley floor.
After Wednesday night, models show dry conditions for a few days, but the two week model is indicating a much better than even chance of above average precipitation.
Frost Discussion: Every single frost station from Madera County to Kern County was either at 26 to 29 degrees with a few exceptions. Ivanhoe chilled to 25, Edison also spiked down to 25 with 24 degrees at the Delano Airport. Temperatures today will begin to warm into the upper 50s, possibly even a few lower 60s, especially in Kern County. We may also see a few high clouds begin to show up after midnight, which could have an impact. Even though daytime highs are becoming gradually warmer, the air mass now on the valley floor is still quite dry with afternoon dew points in the low to mid 30s. this will allow strong radiational cooling again, but with minor modification in expected overnight low temperatures.
Coldest low lying locations will dip down to 26 to 27 or so with most locations between 28 and 32. Hillsides will be above freezing. This may be the last subfreezing night, unless clouds arrive later than expected Friday night. for now I’ll go for above freezing conditions Saturday morning and each morning thereafter.
Still nothing medium range that would indicate a pattern that would be conducive for arctic air moving south. So, after tonight, you can tuck in the kids and go to bed for a change.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
28 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 40%/100%, Bakersfield: 35%/95%
Actual Humidity January 2, 2019: Delano, 96%/45% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .35, Parlier .30, Blackwell .42, Lindcove .28, Arvin .32, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .NA, Delano .34 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 46, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 48, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 873 -301
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 40.0 -4.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.33 season. or -1.29, Month to Date: .00 -.15
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.30, or -.74. Month to Date: .00 -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 428, Parlier, 456 , Arvin, 382 Shafter, 475 Stratford, 433, Delano 448, Lindcove, 643, Porterville, 817
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 33 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 27 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 25 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 55 / 30 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 27 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 56 / 26 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 52 / 33 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 55 / 29 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 5.88 120 0.96 20 4.90 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.49 106 1.03 24 4.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.87 103 1.11 30 3.74 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.99 75 0.41 10 3.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.33 64 0.41 11 3.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.87 56 0.41 12 3.33 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.30 64 0.07 3 2.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.57 92 0.16 9 1.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.77 117 0.78 19 4.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.60 94 0.27 7 3.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.74 65 0.12 3 4.22 13.95
Next report: Thursday afternoon/January 3