January 4, 2019
Summary: Yet another chilly night in the valley as widespread mid to upper 20s were apparent north of Kern County. In Kern County, there was some modification due to wind conditions. Some locations only made it down into the lower 30s. The winds aloft are now becoming southwesterly ahead of a low pressure center about 800 miles to the west of the northern California coast. The center of circulation by this time tomorrow will be just off the southern Oregon/northern California coast. As it moves inland, it will open up into a trough extending southward through central and southern California.
Some models project moisture heading for the northern Baja coast just about the time the trough moves inland, but it appears this moisture source will not advance far enough to the north to enhance precipitation for central California. Even so, periods of rain could arrive as far south as Fresno County by early Saturday afternoon with precipitation spreading southeastward during the early afternoon hours. Periods of rain will continue Saturday night and Sunday morning. Some models indicate the continuation of a weak wave of low pressure moving from west to east Sunday night and Monday morning, keeping a chance of showers going mainly from Fresno County north.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will temporarily move in from the west Monday night through Tuesday night. we could see areas of low clouds and fog Tuesday morning as a result. On Wednesday, a powerful storm will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest which will dig a trough southward into California. Portions of northern California and the Pacific Northwest should experience heavy rain and strong, gusty winds. However, the weaker portion of the trough will move through south of a San Francisco/Sacramento line. Even so, precipitation will spread over the area once again with even southern California getting in on the action due to a nice southwest flow ahead of the cold front.
By Thursday afternoon, this trough will be east of the Sierra Nevada for improving weather, but increasing amounts of night and morning fog will no doubt enter the forecast Friday morning as a ridge of upper level high pressure builds in from the west, possibly lasting three or four days for a period of dry weather. The two week model extends through January 17th. It continues to show a better than even chance of precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning. Occasional high clouds will mix in with the sunshine this afternoon. Increasing cloudiness later tonight. Periods of mainly light rain reaching Fresno County around early Saturday afternoon, spreading southward as Saturday afternoon progresses. Periods of mainly light rain Saturday night and Sunday morning. A chance of showers Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness again by late Tuesday night with periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/32/56/44/54 | Reedley 60/33/56/43/54 | Dinuba 59/32/54/42/53 | |
| Porterville 61/32/57/43/55 | Lindsay 62/31/56/41/56 | Delano 61/34/57/44/55 | |
| Bakersfield 64/45/58/45/55 | Taft 62/45/59/45/54 | Arvin 63/36/58/44/54 | |
| Lamont 63/36/58/45/55 | Pixley 62/33/55/43/54 | Tulare 59/32/56/43/55 | |
| Woodlake 60/33/55/44/54 | Hanford 61/34/55/43/55 | Orosi 61/32/56/43/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM showers possible 45/62 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 47/53 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 47/62 |
Thursday
AM showers possible 42/58 |
Friday
AM fog/partly cloudy 39/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 10 through January 16: This model continues to indicate above average precipitation during this period, especially over the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest. Generally speaking, the flow aloft during this period will be out of the west or southwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through this evening. Later tonight, winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County northward and along the west side and 5 to 15 MPH elsewhere. Winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, diminishing Sunday night with light winds Monday and Tuesday.
Rain: For now, the timing of the onset of precipitation appears to be early Saturday afternoon as far south as Fresno County, spreading over the remainder of the area later in the day. Expect periods of mostly light rain throughout the valley Saturday night and Sunday morning with a chance of showers Sunday afternoon. On Sunday night and Monday morning, there will be a chance of showers north of Fresno County.
Rainfall amounts from this incoming system should range to between .25 to possibly .33 in Fresno and Madera Counties, .10 to .20 in Tulare County with possibly more near the foothills, .10 to .20 in Kings County, and generally .10 or less over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night. rain will again become likely Wednesday and Wednesday night as a major Pacific storm moves through the western U.S. Showers may last into Thursday then it appears we should have another three or four days of dry weather beginning Thursday night and lasting through the weekend.
Frost Discussion: North of Kern County, temperatures only modified by a degree or two with as much as five degrees of modification in some areas in Kern County. The coldest location I could find so far was 26 at Ivanhoe with most areas between 27 and 31.
The arrival time of advancing cloud cover from the next Pacific storm will largely determine overnight lows tonight. I’m forecasting some locations at or below freezing, although it’s possible clouds will completely take over after midnight, resulting in above freezing conditions. Even if the clouds didn’t arrive, low level winds would nudge most areas into at least the lower 30s.
After tonight, a prolonged period of above freezing conditions is expected. Models continue to indicate there’s very little chance of polar air masses moving into the western U.S. through mid January.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
34 |
Jasmine
34 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
33 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 40%/100%, Bakersfield: 35%/95%
Actual Humidity January 3, 2019: Delano, 95%/42% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .34, Parlier .33, Blackwell .41, Lindcove .32, Arvin .37, Orange Cove .35, Porterville .NA, Delano .37 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 46, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 48, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 71/22. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 895 -300
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 40.8 -3.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.33 season. or -1.36, Month to Date: .00 -.22
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.30, or -.78. Month to Date: .00 -.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 444, Parlier, 471 , Arvin, 399 Shafter, 491 Stratford, 463, Delano 448, Lindcove, 660, Porterville, 839
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 33 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 27 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 25 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 58 / 27 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 59 / 30 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 28 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 55 / 30 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 5.88 118 1.07 21 4.98 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.49 104 1.05 24 4.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.87 101 1.12 29 3.85 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.99 73 0.41 10 4.09 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.33 63 0.41 11 3.69 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.87 55 0.41 12 3.43 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.30 63 0.07 3 2.08 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.57 90 0.16 9 1.75 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.77 115 1.07 26 4.14 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.60 92 0.28 7 3.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.74 64 0.13 3 4.31 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/January 4