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Forecast

January 4, 2019/pm report

January 4, 2019

Summary: The winds aloft are increasing out of the southwest ahead of a fairly well developed Pacific storm which will  move into  northern California Saturday.  Its associated storm front will move through the valley Saturday night and early Sunday.  If anything, models have moved up the chance of measurable rain to possibly as early as late morning Saturday with periods of mainly light rain Saturday afternoon and continuing on and off through Sunday morning.  A secondary disturbance will rapidly move into northern California later Sunday night and Monday morning for a renewed chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County north.

 

The air mass behind these systems is quite mild. Even in spite of a frontal passage temperatures Monday through Friday of next week will likely top the 60 degree mark with overnight lows generally in the 40s.  models show a large Pacific storm approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday with a trough of low pressure extending southward all the way into southern California. The fact that its associated cold front will be far from the parent low indicates precipitation will generally be on the light side with the exception of the Sierra Nevada where orographic lift will enhance rain and snowfall amounts.  The chance of rain will continue well into Thursday then a ridge of upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific and eastward into the western U.S. for the possibility of increasing areas of night and morning fog beginning Friday and, if all goes as planned, lasting through next weekend.

 

Forecast: Increasing cloudiness later tonight.  Periods of rain moving southeastward later Saturday morning and continuing on and off through Sunday morning.  The chance of showers will continue Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, mainly from Fresno County northward.  Mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds possible.  Partly cloudy Tuesday night.  increasing cloudiness Wednesday with periods of rain possible later Wednesday through Thursday morning.  Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Becoming mostly clear Friday afternoon.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 34/56/43/54 Reedley 35/55/42/54 Dinuba 34/54/42/54
Porterville 34/57/41/55 Lindsay 32/56/41/56 Delano 34/57/42/56
Bakersfield 40/58/43/54 Taft 42/59/42/55 Arvin 35/59/42/54
Lamont 36/58/44/54 Pixley 34/57/42/55 Tulare 33/56/42/56
Woodlake 34/56/43/55 Hanford 37/55/42/55 Orosi 33/57/41/54

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH this evening then will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH after midnight.  From Fresno County north and along the west side, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts Saturday throughs Saturday night with winds out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH elsewhere.  Winds Sunday will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, continuing Sunday night and Monday.

 

Rain:  The chance of rain will begin to increase as early as late morning along the west side then over the remainder of the area Saturday afternoon.  Periods of mainly light rain will continue Saturday night and Sunday morning with the chance of showers continuing Sunday night and Monday morning.  Rainfall amounts will generally be less than .33 north of Kern County.  Along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties, rainfall should add up to a tenth or two with a tenth or two possible over the valley portion of Kern County.  Expect dry weather Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

 

The chance of rain will then begin to increase Wednesday through Thursday morning.  Rainfall amounts from the Wednesday/Thursday event should add up to a couple of tenths to possible more than a quarter of an inch in some locations, but as of this juncture significant rain is not expected on the valley floor.

 

Models conflict a great deal after Thursday morning with most leaning towards three or four days of dry weather after Thursday.

 

Frost Discussion: Most if not all locations should be above freezing tonight but only slightly above in colder locations.  Models are portraying a rapidly advancing cloud cover moving in from the southwest after midnight.  Theoretically, this would keep temperatures above freezing.  If clouds hold off, there should be enough lower level wind circulation out of the east to keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

 

After tonight, each night will be above freezing for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

Af

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

 

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

Af

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next report: Saturday morning/January 5