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January 5, 2019/report

January 5, 2019

Summary: A relatively strong Pacific storm is 200 miles to the west of the northern California coast with a cold front extending into northern California and a mass of subtropical clouds moving into the Desert Southwest and southern California.  Light showers are occurring south of the Kern County mountains.  Bands of mainly light showers are also moving into northern and central California.  The shower bands themselves are moving eastward, however the bands are moving from south to north across the San Joaquin Valley.  Most of the precipitation so far has been aloft or just a few sprinkles here and there.


The surface low will move into northwest California today, driving a cold front through central California later this afternoon through the evening hours.  Behind the front is a second, weaker wave of low pressure which will move through our region Sunday into Monday, renewing the chance of mainly light precipitation.  A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to move inland Monday afternoon through Monday night, ending the chance of precipitation for about a day and a half or so.  By Wednesday, there will be a massive Pacific storm off the coast of the Pacific Northwest which will drive a cold front through the valley Wednesday, possibly Wednesday night.  for now, this does not appear to be a major rain event for the valley and snow levels will be relatively high.


Medium range models are all over the place this morning in trying to grab onto a pattern for next weekend and beyond.  The new week outlook goes out through the 18th.  It suggests above average temperatures and precipitation, which has been the dominant feature for the past month or so.


Forecast: Cloudy through Sunday morning with periods of rain.  A chance of showers Monday afternoon.  Mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.  Increasing cloudiness late Tuesday leading to an increasing chance of rain by Wednesday.  Periods of rain Wednesday and at times through Wednesday night.  mostly to partly cloudy Thursday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog.  Areas of morning fog and low clouds, otherwise it will be mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday.


Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 55/43/54/44/58 Reedley 55/43/54/44/59 Dinuba 55/42/55/45/57
Porterville 58/42/57/45/57 Lindsay 58/42/55/44/57 Delano 58/44/54/45/58
Bakersfield 59/45/54/45/60 Taft 59/44/54/45/60 Arvin 60/43/54/45/61
Lamont 58/44/54/45/60 Pixley 57/43/54/48/57 Tulare 55/41/55/44/57
Woodlake 56/42/55/44/59 Hanford 57/42/56/44/57 Orosi 57/41/55/45/58


Seven Day Forecast:


AM fog/PM sun



Periods of showers



AM showers



AM fog/partly cloudy



AM fog/PM sun



Two Week Outlook:  January 12 through January 18:  This model continues to indicate above average precipitation during this period, especially over the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest.  Generally speaking, the flow aloft during this period will be out of the west or southwest, resulting in above average temperatures.


January:  This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies.  There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.


January, February, March:  The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days.  Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.


Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the southeast today and tonight at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH from Fresno County south and along the west side.  It’s possible some localized gusty winds out of the south or southeast could occur at the bottom of the Grapevine or other canyons where the Kern County mountains meet the valley floor.  From Sunday afternoon through Monday, winds will be generally out of the southeast at 10 to15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Monday evening.


Rain: Rain is now moving over the coastal mountains and will succeed in spreading precipitation along the west side of the valley over the next few hours.  There will be periods of mainly light rain this afternoon through Sunday morning with a chance of shower sundasy afternoon through Monday morning.  This afternoon, if we happen to see breaks in the overcast, isolated thunderstorms could occur, mainly north of Kern County and we’ll put that in the small chance category for now.


Rainfall amounts from the current system should range from around .20 to possibly .33 along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Our infamous rain shadow will develop in Kern County and along the west side, zapping precip amounts in those areas.


Dry weather will return Monday night through Tuesday night.  precipitation will again spread over the valley Wednesday and Wednesday night.  currently, this does not appear to be the storm of the century, but it will spread precipitation over the entire region with hopefully some significant snow over the high country.  It still appears that by midday Thursday, high pressure will begin to build in  from the east, leading to a drying trend through next weekend.  We will have to study this as models are all over the place in the medium term.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and will be above freezing through the coming week and more than likely beyond.


Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 55%/100%

Actual Humidity January 4, 2019: Delano, 95%/30% Porterville, NA


Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 10%  Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 10%


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .35, Parlier .34, Blackwell .42, Lindcove .33, Arvin .38, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .NA, Delano .37  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 


Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 46, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 51, Porterville NA, Delano 44


Record Temperatures: 72/209. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 913 -313

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 42.3 -1.8


Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 2.33 season. or -1.43, Month to Date: .00 -.28

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.30, or -.81.  Month to Date: .00 -.15

Water year season is from October 1st through September.


Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 459,  Parlier, 485 ,  Arvin, 414 Shafter, 506  Stratford, 463, Delano 477, Lindcove, 675, Porterville, 865

Hours at 45 or below 45.


Sunrise: 7:12 am  Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:45

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  65 /  32 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  64 /  34 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  64 /  29 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  62 /  27 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  65 /  33 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1555 /  67 /  31 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  63 /  29 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1512 /  63 /  37 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  57 /  31 / 0.00 /


Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.88   118    1.07    21     4.98    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    4.49   104    1.05    24     4.31    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    3.87   101    1.12    29     3.85    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.99    73    0.41    10     4.09    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    2.33    63    0.41    11     3.69    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.87    55    0.41    12     3.43    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.30    63    0.07     3     2.08     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.57    90    0.16     9     1.75     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    4.77   115    1.07    26     4.14    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    3.60    92    0.28     7     3.92    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.74    64    0.13     3     4.31    13.95

Next report: Saturday afternoon/January 5