January 7, 2019
Summary: There is a mix of various kinds of clouds over the valley this afternoon along with some sunshine. A moist southwesterly flow is currently moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean and is headed towards northern California. The last reported freezing level over Oakland was 9,700 feet, so just in case you’re wondering where winter is, the freezing level over Medford was 2,200 feet. This west/southwest flow in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will continue for the remainder of the week. The next storm in the parade will arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday night with periods of mainly light precipitation on the valley floor. Just a very temporary ridge of high pressure will move from west to east into California Thursday and Friday for roughly 48 hours of dry weather. Models from this weekend and encompassing much of next week show a very active Pacific Ocean with a line of storms moving from west to east into North America with the main target being southern Oregon and northern California. It’s possible that, with such an active pattern out there, a low could affect the southern half of California this weekend or early next week. At any rate, more precipitation is expected with the chance of rain increasing Friday through Tuesday.
The new two week model indicates the greatest possible rain potential in the entire lower 48 will be southern Oregon and northern California.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy tonight and Tuesday with areas of low clouds and fog possible through around 10:00 Tuesday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with periods of light rain from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. mostly to partly cloudy Thursday through Friday with areas of fog possible Thursday and Friday mornings. There will be a chance of rain at any given time Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/63/48/60 | Reedley 51/62/48/60 | Dinuba 48/62/47/59 | |
| Porterville 47/64/48/61 | Lindsay 47/63/48/59 | Delano 48/65/48/61 | |
| Bakersfield 51/67/49/63 | Taft 51/67/50/62 | Arvin 47/67/47/61 | |
| Lamont 49/66/47/62 | Pixley 47/64/49/61 | Tulare 47/62/47/60 | |
| Woodlake 48/63/48/61 | Hanford 49/64/49/60 | Orosi 47/64/46/59 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 MPH at times through Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH possible from Fresno County southward down along the west side. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Nice to see a bit of sunshine this afternoon which is not a preview of things to come. The next Pacific storm will begin spreading precipitation over California later Tuesday night. even though this is a massive storm and strong, it will move northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia with the weaker portion moving through central California. It does not appear precipitation will progress any further south than the Kern County mountains, however, from Fresno County north local amounts of .25 or so is possible with generally less than .10 as you progress southward into Kern County. After Wednesday night, another temporary reprieve will take hold in the form of a weak ridge passing from west to east. As it moves to the east of the Sierra Nevada, a new series of Pacific storms will line up across the Pacific and result in a chance of rain at any time from Friday night through Monday with short periods of dry weather between waves. Medium range models continue the good news as the two week model, for example, going out from the 15 through the 21 shows the best chance of rain in the lower 48 being in southern Oregon and northern California with continued above average precipitation over the remainder of the Golden State.
Frost Discussion: Each night will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Next report: Tuesday morning/January 8