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Forecast

January 11, 2019/report

January 11, 2019

Summary: An elongated low pressure system stretching from off the southern Oregon coast to off the southern California coast is moving southeastward.  Showers are beginning to show up on Doppler radar out of Monterey with light showers just off the central coast.  Precipitation is beginning to move into the San Francisco Bay area.  This will be a tricky forecast as the difficulty will be to try to discern how far east rain will ultimately spread.  Rain will become likely later this afternoon over the Coast Range then will spread into the western side of the San Joaquin Valley.  I’ll still go with 50/50 for measurable rain generally east of Highway 99.

 

The low will continue to move southeastward then will swing inland through southern California late tonight and Saturday morning.  We may begin to see some strong gusty east to southeast winds over portions of Kern County, possibly gusting to 40 to 50 MPH later this afternoon and tonight in places like Wheeler Ridge, Maricopa, the bottom of the Grapevine and possibly spreading as far north as Bakersfield.  These winds will end by late tonight as pressure differences begin to relax.

 

A very temporary ridge of  high pressure will take over Saturday afternoon through Sunday.  The chance of rain will begin to spread in from the west Sunday night from yet another low pressure system.  Rain could be more significant with this system later Sunday night and Monday.  Satellite imagery shows a Pacific Ocean churning with storm activity with waves of low pressure riding the jet stream generally from west to east into California.  As each wave moves on shore, the potential for significant precipitation will occur.

 

Models are particularly interesting for Thursday and Thursday night as a powerful low shows up off the coast of northern California with a dynamic trough extending southward into central and southern California.  This could result in heavy rain and heavy snow over the high Sierra.  At this point, models are projecting eight to ten feet of new snow above the 8,000 foot elevation from Monday through Friday.  This appears to be the week we’ve been waiting for this season.

 

Some models are suggesting dry weather’s return next weekend and lasting possibly into the following week, although some also suggest an active storm pattern will continue, especially over the Pacific Northwest and northern California.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy this afternoon.  A chance of rain along the west side of the valley by sunset.  Rain likely along the west side tonight and for a time Saturday morning with a chance of rain elsewhere.  Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday with areas of fog and clouds later Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Cloudy Sunday night with an increasing chance of rain.  Rain likely Monday through Wednesday at times.  Precipitation could be locally heavy.  Rain Wednesday night through Thursday night, heavy at times.  A chance of showers Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 60/47/60/41/58 Reedley 62/48/59/41/59 Dinuba 59/48/59/40/58
Porterville 63/47/60/40/60 Lindsay 62/46/60/39/58 Delano 63/49/59/43/61
Bakersfield 67/50/62/44/62 Taft 66/51/62/45/62 Arvin 67/51/62/43/62
Lamont 67/50/62/43/62 Pixley 61/48/59/40/59 Tulare 60/46/58/40/58
Woodlake 63/47/59/40/58 Hanford 59/48/59/41/59 Orosi 59/48/59/40/59

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Periods of rain

48/58

Tuesday

Periods of rain

47/64

Wednesday

Showers likely

46/62

Thursday

Heavy rain

46/62

Friday

Chance of showers

45/59

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 18 through January 24:  Even though this model still projects a chance of rain during this period, the storm track is a bit further north, affecting mainly the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Temperatures should fall back to close to seasonal levels.

 

January:  This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies.  There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.

 

January, February, March:  The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days.  Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH this afternoon and tonight with gusts to 25 MPH possible along the west side.  In Kern County, from mid to late afternoon through the nighttime hours, it’s possible strong, gusty winds will occur in the extreme south valley in places like Edison/Arvin, Wheeler Ridge, and especially at the bottom of the Grapevine.  Winds near the base of the mountains may gust to 40 to 50 MPH.  these winds will quickly diminish before sunrise with winds later Saturday through the remainder of the weekend in the 5 to 10 MPH range.  Late Sunday afternoon and night, we may see a reoccurrence of the gusty winds in the same areas with most other locations experiencing winds out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH through Monday.

 

Rain: It appears likely the west side of the San Joaquin Valley will pick up precipitation from late this afternoon and for a time Saturday morning.  Kind of an oval shaped low is moving southeastward parallel to the coast but it may not spread rain far enough to the east to affect the eastern side of the valley.  I would put the chance of measurable rain east of Highway 99 at roughly 50/50 with about a 70% chance of rain near the I 5 corridor.  Rain will diminish in all areas by midmorning.  Precipitation amounts along the west side could tally .25 to .33, tapering down to less than .10 east of Highway 99.  Dry weather will return by midmorning Saturday and continue through Sunday.

 

The next low center will be off the central coast Sunday night and Monday, spreading precipitation over central California.  Rainfall amounts from this storm will be more significant.  From Monday night through Wednesday, waves of low pressure will move on shore, upping the rainfall totals and bringing snow to the high Sierra.

 

From late Wednesday night through Thursday night, a powerful winter storm may affect northern and central California with potentially heavy amounts of precipitation for the mountains and portions of the San Joaquin Valley.  If you wanted a good snow pack, this should do it.  Some models are projecting between 8 and 10 feet of new snow along the Sierra Nevada north of Kern County with as much as 5 feet in Tulare County between Monday and Friday.

 

There may be some dry weather next weekend as some models are pointing to a high moving in from the west.  Models are mixed for the following week, but if there’s any consensus, the storm track will be moving back into the Pacific Northwest and northern California.

Frost Discussion: We do have somewhat of a trend developing for January 21 through the 26.  The suggestion is that a strong polar air mass will dive southeastward into the lower 48, possibly encompassing ¾ of the lower 48.  Currently, all of this air is shown east of the Sierra Nevada, but on one model it’s dangerously close.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 50%/95%

Actual Humidity January 10, 2019: Delano, 100%/77% Porterville, 98%/71%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 20%  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .20, Parlier .23, Blackwell .34, Lindcove .25, Arvin .44, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .27, Delano .30  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 50, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 50, Delano 49

 

Record Temperatures: 74/19. Average Temperatures: 54/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 997 -344

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 47.2 3.44

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 3.34 season. or -.85, Month to Date: 1.01 +.29

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.57, or -.76.  Month to Date: .27 -.10

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 477,  Parlier, 499 ,  Arvin, 428 Shafter, 519  Stratford, 481, Delano 494, Lindcove, 718, Porterville, 938

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:11 am  Sunset: 5:03 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:50`

Yesterday’s Weather:

AE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  57 /  47 / 0.06 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  57 /  48 / 0.04 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  52 /  47 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  54 /  48 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  57 /  47 / 0.08 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  55 /  45 /    M /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1556 /  61 /  43 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  62 /  47 / 0.08 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1552 /  56 /  45 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  53 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.01   126    3.52    63     5.57    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    4.97   102    3.25    67     4.87    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    4.83   106    1.99    44     4.57    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    3.74    78    1.31    27     4.78    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.34    80    1.23    29     4.19    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    2.60    64    1.68    41     4.07    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.57    67    0.88    38     2.33     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.58    78    0.20    10     2.03     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.08   108    2.13    45     4.71    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    4.79   106    2.16    48     4.53    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    3.98    81    1.95    40     4.90    13.95

 

Next report:  Friday afternoon, January 11