January 11, 2019
Summary: An interesting weather system is stretched from off the Oregon coast southwestward along the California coast and to west of the Channel Islands. Bands of rain are rotating from southeast to northwest, coming on shore along the central coast and making very slow eastward progression. The latest afternoon models still mainly show precipitation tonight moving into the western and southern portions of the valley. East of Highway 99, as we mentioned earlier, a 50/50 chance of showers is possible with around a 70% chance of more significant rain along the Interstate 5 corridor into portions of Kern County. The chance of rain in those areas will continue into Saturday morning then the low will begin to weaken and move into southern California, leaving central California dry from Saturday afternoon and through the day Sunday.
The next storm has better potential for the entire region. It will be a slow mover from Sunday night through Tuesday with the center of circulation off the central coast. This could pose another interesting wind event in Kern County, but the main impact will be periods of rain, possibly locally heavy at times north of Kern County, through Tuesday night. by late Wednesday night and Thursday, a powerful low will be off the Oregon/northern California coast with a juicy westerly flow flanked underneath the low and into central and southern California. The possibility of heavy rain in the Sierra and significant rain elsewhere will be all too real with this system, along with periods of strong, gusty winds in places.
Models continue to point towards a drying trend over the weekend as upper level high pressure begins to build northeastward off shore, driving the storm track into the Pacific Northwest. That same rule of thumb may be true for the following week with several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Rain likely along the west side into Saturday morning with a chance of showers elsewhere. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday with areas of fog and/or low clouds possible Saturday night and Sunday morning. Periods of rain possibly locally heavy at times Monday through Tuesday night. periods of rain continuing Wednesday through Thursday night, locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 47/60/40/58 | Reedley 47/59/40/59 | Dinuba 47/58/40/57 | |
| Porterville 46/61/42/61 | Lindsay 45/59/40/58 | Delano 48/61/42/58 | |
| Bakersfield 50/62/43/62 | Taft 51/61/45/61 | Arvin 49/62/43/61 | |
| Lamont 48/61/42/58 | Pixley 47/61/41/60 | Tulare 45/59/40/58 | |
| Woodlake 47/60/40/59 | Hanford 47/61/40/59 | Orosi 45/59/41/58 | |
Winds: Winds tonight and early Saturday will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side. In Kern County, from now through around 4:00 or 5:00 am, the possibility of strong, gusty, downslope winds will be there, possibly gusting to 40 to 50 MPH. from sunrise through Sunday winds will be in the 5 to 10 MPH range. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH possible from Fresno County north and along the west side. It’s possible another high wind event could occur over some areas of the valley portion of Kern County Sunday night through Monday night with gusts possibly reaching 40 to 50 MPH in places.
Rain: Rain will become likely along the west side of the valley this evening, lasting through roughly midmorning Saturday with a chance of light showers east of Highway 99. Basically, the Interstate 5 corridor and areas of the valley portion of Kern County will have a greater potential of picking up rain. Measurable rain will decrease towards the eastern portion of the valley with minimal precipitation over the Sierra. Dry weather will return by late morning Saturday, continuing through Sunday. The coming workweek will see several opportunities for rain as the storm track will become very active. A strong low will be just off shore Monday, pinwheeling bands of energy and rain over the valley from time to time Monday through Tuesday. By late Wednesday night and Thursday, a powerful low should be off the Oregon/northern California coast with a strong and very moist jet stream moving into central and southern California. This will lead to periods of rain, heavy at times, through Thursday night with showers lasting into Friday. Medium range models still point to a dry weather pattern returning next weekend as high pressure begins to build northeastward off shore. The possibility of dry weather is also likely the following week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next week. Some medium range models for the 21 through the 26 are still pointing towards an arctic outbreak with air from the Arctic Circle diving down into the lower48. Current thinking for now is that this air mass will plunge into the Rockies with brutal cold moving into the Midwest. Stay tuned, though, as we’re still well ahead of the main event and much could change.
Next report: Saturday morning/January 12