January 14, 2019
Summary: Kern County is absolutely getting pounded by this latest winter storm. If you’re north of the Kern County line you may think it’s just a day with some light showers, but little else. However, blizzard conditions were reported above 5,000 feet in Kern County. Sandberg, a station I often refer to and is just above the ridge route, is currently reporting heavy snow. The story is heavy rain and snow over the Kern County mountains. The storm on the valley floor is very strong, gusty winds out of the east to southeast. The following are some peak wind gusts as of 1:00pm. Buttonwillow 31, Taft 37, Mettler 40, Edison 35, Lamont 48, Bakersfield 51, the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine 58, Avenal 35, and Lost Hills 35.
The strong pressure difference between inland California and off shore is about to peak. I don’t anticipate these winds will get too much stronger and should begin to slack off a bit by this evening. They may increase again Tuesday but shouldn’t be as ferocious as today.
On the rain front, Doppler radar shows numerous showers moving southeast to northwest, wrapping around the northeastern sector of the storm. Heavy precipitation has also been occurring over the mountain and coastal areas of southern California for most of the day. The off shore low will begin to open up into a trough and move inland by Tuesday evening. Periods of precipitation will continue to rotate around the low until it finally moves inland Tuesday night. a strong westerly flow aloft will no doubt have waves of low pressure embedded within it, keeping periods of rain going on and off for much of the day Wednesday.
It’s possible we may have a brief break Wednesday afternoon, but then the Big Kahuna in the form of a powerful low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will move onshore. By Thursday afternoon, a 150 knot jet stream will be right above central California with large amounts of subtropical moisture feeding into this storm and being lifted orographically by the Sierra Nevada. Potentially tremendous amounts of precipitation will occur with 3 to 5 feet of new snow above 7,500 feet and 3 to 5 inches of rain below the snow line. The valley floor will also get soaked, which is discussed in the rainfall section below.
We are also looking at the medium range outlook for frost and there are noteworthy weather patterns to discuss, which it is in detail in the frost section below.
Forecast: Periods of rain through Tuesday night. periods of rain Wednesday. Rain Wednesday night through Thursday evening, heavy at times with strong, gusty winds. Showers tapering off Friday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon with a chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/57/49/61 | Reedley 48/58/49/62 | Dinuba 47/57/48/61 | |
| Porterville 46/59/50/63 | Lindsay 46/58/49/62 | Delano 48/59/50/64 | |
| Bakersfield 49/60/51/65 | Taft 48/59/51/64 | Arvin 49/59/50/65 | |
| Lamont 48/59/50/64 | Pixley 47/59/50/63 | Tulare 46/57/49/62 | |
| Woodlake 47/58/49/62 | Hanford 48/58/50/61 | Orosi 47/57/48/61 | |
Winds: The storm on the valley floor has very strong, gusty winds out of the east to southeast. The following are some peak wind gusts as of 1:00pm. Buttonwillow 31, Taft 37, Mettler 40, Edison 35, Lamont 48, Bakersfield 51, the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine 58, Avenal 35, and Lost Hills 35.
The strong pressure difference between inland California and off shore is about to peak. I don’t anticipate these winds will get too much stronger and should begin to slack off a bit by this evening. They may increase again Tuesday but shouldn’t be as ferocious as today. To give you an idea of pressure differences, the barometric pressure at China Lake in the Kern County desert is 30.03 while currently the pressure at Monterey is 29.83 inches of mercury. That’s quite a difference in such a short distance.
Winds will begin to slowly subside tonight then increase again Tuesday, but not to the velocity we experienced today. Generally in the 15 to 30 MPH range. From late Wednesday night through Thursday, a different kind of wind configuration will set up, one that typically involves the entire valley, unlike today’s event. A powerful storm to our northwest will result in increasing south to southeast winds at 15 to 30 MPH with gusts possibly as strong as 45 MPH towards the center and west side of the valley, but also locally elsewhere. Winds will diminish Thursday night with much, much lighter winds over the weekend.
Rain: Kern County remains in a strong rain shadow, even though light showers have managed to reach the ground from Bakersfield north. Periods of light rain will continue to move from southeast to northwest across the valley through Tuesday. Expect showers Wednesday with possibly a very short break Wednesday afternoon.
From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening, heavy precipitation will accumulate over central California. A rain shadow may zap totals over the west side a bit, but by and large rainfall amounts from .75 to 1.50 inches cannot be ruled out. The foothills below the snow level could very well pick up from 3 to 5 inches north of the Tulare County line and 3 to 5 feet of new snow could fall above 7,500 feet. That translates into tremendous amounts of water. There will be a chance of showers Friday morning then dry weather will return Friday afternoon, continuing through at least Sunday. Models still show a weak cold front moving through the valley Sunday night and Monday for a chance of light showers, but considering the current pattern, it will almost be a non event.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next week. The first of what may be two or three arctic outbreaks will begin this weekend, generally east of the Rocky Mountains. What concerns me now is that some models which are good at forecasting several days out are showing a massive eastern Pacific high pressure system building far to the north through Alaska and up to the Arctic Circle. In the meantime, a low will develop over the Desert Southwest, possibly even over southern California. This, in turn, creates a squeeze play, moving arctic air rapidly southward into the western U.S. some of this afternoon’s models include California now in this scenario. It is very much a freeze pattern. This is only the 14th, so changes will naturally take place between now and then, but my feeling is a few preparations might not hurt.
Next report: Tuesday morning/January 15