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Forecast

January 14, 2019/report

January 14, 2019

Summary: Kern County is getting pounded in one way, shape, or form.  Heavy rain is falling over the mountainous terrain of Kern County and it’s quite interesting to watch it simply evaporate once it hits the valley facing slopes.  In other words, a very strong rain shadow has formed, which is  no surprise.  Strong winds continue to hammer many parts of the valley portion of Kern County.  Currently at Mettler, winds are out of the east/southeast at 15, gusting to 37 MPH, Taft has sustained of 20, gusting to 31 MPH, Arvin has winds of 19, gusting to 32, Lamont 25, gusting to 38, and Edison, 20, gusting to 27.  Most of the valley is reporting current temperatures in the mid 40s, however, in Kern County, current temperatures are in the upper 50s to lower 60s, a good lesson in downslope compressional heating.

 

A complex low is just off shore with one center just to the west of Vandenberg and another west of San Francisco.  Heavy precipitation is  moving from south to north over the coastal and mountain areas of southern California and right along the central coast.  Models show the high finally breaking down over the northern Rockies.  That high has prevented storms from moving into central  California except in the extreme south.  The chance of rain will begin to increase but probably not until this afternoon and evening when the rain shadow begins to weaken as the low finally moves on shore.  However, the low will be in close proximity until Tuesday, allowing bands of energy to rotate counterclockwise into central California for periods of rain at times through Tuesday night.

 

It now looks like we will receive a short break Wednesday then that powerful Pacific low we’ve been talking about will approach the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a strong jet stream flanked underneath the low.  This jet stream will be loaded with subtropical  moisture.  It will actually resemble a short lived atmospheric river of air.  Three to five inches of rain will be recorded along the Sierra Nevada foothills and as much as three to five feet of new snow will fall over the high Sierra over a 36 hour period.  On Friday, upper level high pressure will begin to nudge the storm track further east and north for some dry weather, however some models show a cold front being driven through central California Sunday night and Monday forming for a chance of light showers.

 

After Monday, a huge ridge of upper level high pressure will build along the west coast and off shore.  Meanwhile, bitterly cold arctic air will dive south/southeast east of the Rockies for a big change as it’s been a mild winter there as well.

 

The two week outlook is also indicating a very low chance of rain.

 

Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of light showers this morning north of Kern County.  Periods of rain later this afternoon through Tuesday night with strong, gusty winds continuing over portions of Kern County.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday with a chance of showers.  Rain Wednesday night through Thursday evening, possibly heavy at times.  Showers tapering off after midnight Thursday night with a chance of lingering showers Friday morning.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.  Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon leading to a chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 58/46/57/49/62 Reedley 58/46/58/49/61 Dinuba 57/45/57/47/61
Porterville 60/46/58/50/63 Lindsay 59/47/58/49/63 Delano 60/49/59/50/64
Bakersfield 64/51/59/50/65 Taft 59/50/59/51/64 Arvin 63/50/59/51/64
Lamont 64/50/60/51/65 Pixley 59/46/58/49/62 Tulare 58/45/57/48/61
Woodlake 60/45/58/48/62 Hanford 61/48/58/50/63 Orosi 59/46/59/48/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Rain, locally  heavy

54/61

Friday

AM showers possible

46/59

Saturday

AM fog/partly cloudy

41/60

Sunday

PM showers possible

45/63

Monday

Chance of showers

42/58

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 19 through January 25:  This model indicates strong upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western one-fourth of the U.S.  Temperatures above the fog and low clouds will be above average.  Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by how widespread and persistent the fog and low clouds are.  The chance of rain during this period will be quite low.

 

January:  This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies.  There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.

 

January, February, March:  The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days.  Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.

 

Winds:  Strong winds continue to hammer many parts of the valley portion of Kern County.  Currently at Mettler, winds are out of the east/southeast at 15, gusting to 37 MPH, Taft has sustained winds of 20, gusting to 31 MPH, Arvin has winds of 19, gusting to 32, Lamont 25, gusting to 38, and Edison, 20, gusting to 27.

 

These winds will continue for much of the day, probably peaking late this morning or early this afternoon when localized gusts to 50 MPH cannot be ruled out.

 

Pressure differences between inland California and off shore will begin to weaken later this afternoon, as will the winds.  North of Kern County, winds will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side.  Winds tonight through Wednesday will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be out of the south to southeast at 15 to 30 MPH with gusts to near 40 MPH possible with the greatest risk being along the west side and from Fresno County north.

 

Rain: It’s quite interesting this morning to watch heavy rain come on shore in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties then spread over the Tehachapi Mountains and completely evaporate as the air is forced downward along the valley facing slopes.  This will continue for the remainder of the day so the chance of measurable rain in Kern County appears to be quite low.  Periods of rain will finally move inland later this afternoon through Tuesday night as bands of energy rotate around the off shore storm and into central California.  It’s very difficult to predict rainfall amounts through Tuesday night due to the complexity of this storm and the rain shadows it’s producing.  North of Kern County .25 to .33 is possible.  Once the winds end in the south valley, the rain shadow will weaken, allowing showers to spread into the valley portion of Kern County.

]

It looks like we’ll get a short break Wednesday then the strongest storm of the winter season so far will pound central California Wednesday night through Thursday evening with strong winds and potentially heavy rain.  North of Kern County, anywhere from .75 to 1.50 would not be a surprise from Wednesday night through Thursday night with possibly 3 to 5 inches in the Sierra Nevada foothills and 3 to 5 feet of new snow over the high country.

 

The rain will turn to showers Thursday night and taper off with lingering showers possible Friday morning.  Dry weather will begin Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.  Some models are showing a chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday as a cold front moves through.

 

After Monday, a massive ridge shows up on models off shore and over the west for a prolonged period of dry weather.

Frost Discussion: All locations will continue to be above freezing for at least the next week.

The main focus of concern is still a bitterly cold air mass which will dive south/southeast into the lower 48 east of the Rockies beginning this weekend.  Some models show the eastern Pacific high moving further west out over the ocean.  In theory, this could generate a north/south flow over California about the 22nd and possibly a northeast flow by the 25th.  None of these configurations, though, would really pick up modified polar air, but with models showing so many inconsistencies, it would be wise to watch for the latest forecasts and updates.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid 20s to the mid 30s.

Humidity: Porterville: 65%/95%, Bakersfield: 25%/55%

Actual Humidity January 13, 2019: Delano, 98%/53% Porterville, 98%/51%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0%  Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 0%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .21, Parlier .29, Blackwell .32, Lindcove .28, Arvin .59, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .27, Delano .33  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 53, Delano 51

 

Record Temperatures: 68/22. Average Temperatures: 54/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1034 -367

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 48.5 +4.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 3.34 season. or -1.07, Month to Date: 1.01 +.07

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.58, or -.86.  Month to Date: .28 -.20

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 491,  Parlier, 507 ,  Arvin, 442 Shafter, 523  Stratford, 491, Delano 505, Lindcove, 742, Porterville, 988

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:11 am  Sunset: 5:06 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:54

Yesterday’s Weather:

MEE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  65 /  40 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  44 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  63 /  38 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  60 /  35 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1546 /  67 /  46 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  54 /  37 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1555 /  61 /  38 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  63 /  38 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /  64 /  38 / 0.00 /

 

Next report:  Monday afternoon, January 14