January 13, 2019
Summary: Winds are already picking up over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. Lamont is reporting winds out of the east/southeast at 15, gusting to 36 MPH, Mettler 15 MPH gusting to 26, and at the bottom of the Grapevine at the CHP office winds as strong as 46 MPH have been reported. These winds have spread northwestward as the last report at Meadows Field, Bakersfield showed winds out of the southeast at 20, gusting to 28 MPH. pressure differences will continue to increase between the high desert and eastern California as opposed to falling pressure off shore. These winds will probably peak after midnight but continue for much of the day Monday.
In the meantime, the off shore low, which is a rather odd configuration, is stretching from northwest to southeast just off shore. The first bands of light showers are moving into the Channel Islands and some rain is as close as 40 miles off the central coast. As far as the valley is concerned, we will remain dry tonight, but as strong upper level high pressure over the northern Rockies finally breaks down, the strong westerly flow over the eastern Pacific will break through, allowing multiple low pressure systems to rapidly move on shore with periods of rain, especially Monday afternoon through early Wednesday. Precipitation could be potentially heavy along the Sierra Nevada, but as a strong westerly jet stream traverses the Coast Range, rain shadows will develop to potentially knock down rainfall amounts, especially along the west side.
By Thursday morning, a powerful Pacific storm will be centered just west of Portland, Oregon with a strong west to east jet stream slamming into central California. The potential for very heavy rain in the mountains and heavy snow up high is virtually assured with locally heavy amounts on the valley floor, especially along the east side north of Kern County.
We will finally get a pattern change Friday as upper level high pressure begins to build over the eastern Pacific and ridges into the western U.S. As the high builds further north, an arctic outbreak will dive southward east of the Rockies. One model this afternoon was trying to move the eastern Pacific high further out to sea which could conceivably allow modified arctic air into central California about the 23rd. Much could change between now and then and it still appears the bulk, if not all, the cold air will stay east of the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: Increasing clouds tonight. A chance of showers Monday morning. Periods of rain Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. rain continuing Wednesday, becoming locally heavy Wednesday night through Thursday. Periods of showers Thursday night, possibly lingering into Friday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 46/58/44/58 | Reedley 46/59/44/58 | Dinuba 44/57/43/58 | |
| Porterville 43/60/43/59 | Lindsay 45/61/45/58 | Delano 46/60/45/61 | |
| Bakersfield 52/62/45/62 | Taft 50/61/47/62 | Arvin 51/63/45/61 | |
| Lamont 51/63/45/62 | Pixley 46/60/45/59 | Tulare 44/57/44/58 | |
| Woodlake 43/58/46/59 | Hanford 46/60/45/58 | Orosi 44/59/45/58 | |
Winds: Winds have gusted to just under 50 MPH already this afternoon at the bottom of the Grapevine. Wind gusts of 36 have been reported at Lamont, 26 at Mettler and these winds are moving northwestward, reaching Meadows Field with gusts there of 28 MPH. pressure differences have by no means peaked between eastern California and the Mojave Desert and rapidly falling pressure off shore. Winds of 40 to 50 MPH would not be a surprise at places like Lamont, Mettler, and possibly the Arvin/Edison area. Winds will continue through the night and well into Monday before tapering off late Monday afternoon. Elsewhere in the valley, winds will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, especially along the west side, through Wednesday.
Rain: The first bands of showers are only about 25 miles west of the central coast and are slowly inching towards the northeast. High pressure over the northern Rockies is trying to block this system, so I don’t anticipate any precipitation tonight. As the high breaks down to our northeast, the westerlies off shore will break through, allowing multiple weather systems to rapidly move inland with periods of rain, possibly locally heavy at times along the east side. Models do indicate strong rain shadows will develop along the west side, possibly zapping rainfall potentials there. East of Highway 99 has the better chance of picking up better precipitation totals. Wednesday night and Thursday will see the climax of this week of precipitation as a powerful Pacific storm will be just off the Oregon coast with a very strong jet stream slamming northern and central California with possible copious amounts of rain in the mountains and snow up high. Locally heavy rain can be expected on the valley floor. The rain will turn to showers later Thursday night, possibly lasting into Friday morning. Friday afternoon will see the start of a prolonged period of dry weather which will not only last next weekend, but all of the following week, as well.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for at least the next week. Even though we will be heading into a dry pattern beginning late Friday, the air mass behind that last storm will be out of the west which is relatively mild. Increasing fog and low clouds will also become factors.
It now appears that arctic outbreak will begin in the Midwest this next weekend with bitterly cold air surging southward east of the Rockies. One model this afternoon is a bit worrisome as it has a new insight into possibilities for the valley. It shows the eastern Pacific high previously projected to be over the western one fourth of the U.S. backing up further out over the ocean. That could potentially result in a north/south weather pattern with modified arctic air moving into the west. Right now, this is the odd model out, but it certainly is worth monitoring very closely. Hopefully no trend along these lines develops.
Next report: Monday morning/January 14