January 17, 2019
Summary: Most of the showers are in Madera and Fresno Counties with another area of precipitation encompassing south and southeast of Bakersfield. Heavy precipitation continues over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada with heavy rain also occurring over the mountainous terrain of Kern County.
A jet streak is currently moving into northcentral California. Winds up at 30,000 feet are cruising along at 150 knots, or about 175 MPH. this adds lift to the atmosphere, so the chance of showers will continue into the late evening hours. I still want to continue with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms through midafternoon through the early evening hours.
Some of the mountain areas of the entire state have recorded tremendous amounts of rain. Between Big Sur and Cambria above Hwy 1, more than 6 inches of precipitation has fallen with this storm. In the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California, storm totals in some areas are approaching 8 inches with 1.50 to 3.00 inches in the LA basin.
The valley floor has been in a rain shadow for much of this event. So far, Bakersfield has recorded more than some locations further north, which is an oddity. Fifty five hundredths has been recorded at Meadows Field over the past 24 hours.
Later tonight and Friday, an upper high center will develop along the southern California coast, shoving the rain line up into northern California. Dry weather will continue over the weekend with increasing amounts of night and morning valley fog as a weak inversion develops. Some models are a bit more bullish about light showers moving into the valley and have moved up the timeline to late Sunday night and Monday. After this system goes through, a massive high is projected to build over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western one-third of the U.S.
Some models for later next week push the northern rim of this high into the Arctic Circle, forcing bitterly cold air into the Midwest sometime after Wednesday. So far, it does not appear this air mass will affect California, but we will be vigilant.
Forecast: Periods of showers through the evening hours with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers will taper off after midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and/or low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of light showers later Sunday night and Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning with areas of fog and low clouds possible Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon through Thursday will be mostly clear with increasing amounts of night and morning fog and/or low clouds, possibly persisting through the day in some areas.
Short Term:
| Madera 47/59/40/60 | Reedley 44/59/39/62 | Dinuba 43/58/39/61 | |
| Porterville 45/59/40/62 | Lindsay 43/60/38/61 | Delano 46/60/42/63 | |
| Bakersfield 49/62/44/64 | Taft 51/61/46/64 | Arvin 49/61/45/65 | |
| Lamont 49/61/45/64 | Pixley 47/60/44/63 | Tulare 44/59/40/61 | |
| Woodlake 43/58/40/62 | Hanford 44/59/42/61 | Orosi 45/59/40/61 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH this evening with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds later tonight will decrease to around 5 to 10 MPH. Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally in the 4 to 8 MPH range with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: showers continue over portions of the valley this afternoon with strong jet stream energy currently above the valley floor. Showers will likely continue through the late evening hours with even a chance of a few isolated thunderstorms from mid afternoon to early evening. Showers will taper off after midnight with dry weather returning Friday.
Rainfall amounts from this point on will be light at most locations with generally less than .10 but locally heavier amounts can be expected in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Dry weather will prevail Friday through Sunday.
Some models are more bullish this afternoon on measurable rain moving into the valley later Sunday night and Monday. I want to keep this very much in the chance category, but the possibility appears a bit higher than earlier.
Nothing but dry weather will prevail from Tuesday on under a huge dome of upper level high pressure. Not only will next week be dry, but possibly the following week, as well.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night through Monday morning. There is a chance of low to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as the air mass swinging in behind a fast moving system will be marginally colder. It’s questionable whether this system will have enough strength to bring dew points down. The bottom line, though, is nothing serious will occur.
The outlook for later next week and beyond is very stable with ideal conditions for fog and /or low clouds. Models are still projecting bursts of arctic air moving down into the Midwest. Some models this afternoon show the air moving over the Rocky Mountain region, but not nearly far enough to the west to threaten California.
Next report: Friday morning/January 18