January 18, 2019
Summary: Dry weather has returned for the next 72 hours. South of Merced County, conditions are rain free with considerable cloud cover north of Kern County. Kern County itself cleared overnight, allowing dense fog to form. I had one report of visibility down to near 500 feet near Jasmine. This storm lived up to its expectations with three to five inches of rain in the Sierra Nevada and one to two inches over the Kern County mountains. The valley’s rain shadow, especially along the west side, was evident, keeping totals down. Even so, between one-half and one inch was common.
Weak upper level high pressure is nudging northward from its center well off the southern California coast. A considerable amount of cloud cover is rotating southeastward from a northwest flow aloft which is moving in behind yesterday’s storm, which is now over the interior west.
For Saturday and Sunday, the main challenge will be fog and/or low clouds, that’s assuming that the higher clouds begin to clear. Even so, at least partly cloudy skies will prevail during the afternoon for a pretty decent weekend ahead.
One last time, the high will give way late Sunday afternoon through Monday, allowing a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front to move through northern and central California. Models continue to be more bullish on showers spreading over the region, especially during Sunday night through Monday morning. This storm will pale in comparison to its predecessor with light amounts on the valley floor and perhaps .25 to .50 over the mountains.
A marginally colder air mass will swing in behind this system, possibly lowering temperatures to the point where local frost could form. Skies will clear Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. More on that in the frost discussion below. Beginning Tuesday, a massive ridge of upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the United States. By later next week, this high will ridge far to the north, possibly even up to the Arctic Circle. Arctic air will slide southeastward along the backside of the high and into the Midwest where winter’s chill will prevail.
One model shows some of this air moving into the Rockies and Great Basin next Thursday and Friday, but it still appears it will not affect California. As far as precipitation is concerned, after Monday the remainder of next week will be dry and, if models are correct, the following week as well.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today with areas of fog and low clouds. Some sunshine will break through this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight with areas of fog and low clouds forming after midnight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday morning with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon with a chance of showers by sunset. Light showers likely Sunday night and Monday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Friday with extensive amounts of fog and low clouds and with partial clearing in the afternoons.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/41/61/41/61 | Reedley 59/40/61/41/62 | Dinuba 58/40/61/40/61 | |
| Porterville 62/39/61/39/63 | Lindsay 60/39/63/40/63 | Delano 60/40/63/43/64 | |
| Bakersfield 59/45/64/46/66 | Taft 61/47/65/47/67 | Arvin 58/45/65/44/67 | |
| Lamont 60/44/65/43/66 | Pixley 62/42/63/42/64 | Tulare 59/40/60/41/61 | |
| Woodlake 59/40/61/41/62 | Hanford 59/40/61/41/63 | Orosi 60/40/61/41/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM showers 45/59 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 33/55` |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 33/57 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 38/56 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 43/54 |
Two Week Outlook: January 25 through January 31: A massive upper ridge will be over the eastern Pacific and western one-fourth of the U.S. during this period with cold, arctic air funneling southeastward over the Rockies and points eastward, but not affecting California. Temperatures will be determined by fog and low clouds, but above the valley floor, temperatures will be above average. The chance of rain during this time frame is very low.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday morning. Winds Sunday afternoon and night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH then will be out of the northwest Monday at 10 to 20 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry conditions through midafternoon Sunday. The chance of light rainw ill begin to increase late Sunday afternoon, becoming likely at times Sunday night and Monday morning. This system will be very weak compared to recent events with no more than .10 to .20 on the valley floor. Dry weather will return Monday afternoon and continue for all of next week and more than likely the following week as well.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and on through Monday morning. A low pressure system and its associated cold front will move through central California Sunday night and Monday morning. The air behind this system will be marginally colder. It’s possible that there could be enough wind energy to scour out the low level moisture on the valley floor, allowing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings to fall into the low to mid 30s. beginning Tuesday, a strong upper high will take over, forming a strong warm air inversion by midweek and setting the stage for extensive fog and/or low clouds which could completely take over. This would result in above freezing conditions after midweek.
Models continue to show arctic air remaining east of California through the end of the month, though some models do suggest some of this air will infiltrate the Rocky Mountains and eastern Great Basin next Thursday and Friday. If that’s as far west as this air mass penetrates, that will be fine for all concerned.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/95%, Bakersfield: 60%/95%
Actual Humidity January 17, 2019: Delano, 94%/46% Porterville, 95%/46%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .22, Parlier .26, Blackwell .32, Lindcove .24, Arvin .69, Orange Cove .29, Porterville .23, Delano .34 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 55/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1084 -397
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 49.4 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.00 season. or -.71, Month to Date: 1.67 +.43
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.27, or -.33. Month to Date: .97 +.33
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 503, Parlier, 517 , Arvin, 449 Shafter, 525 Stratford, 506, Delano 514, Lindcove, 762, Porterville, 1023
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 5:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 57 / 0.61 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 56 / 0.45 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 56 / 0.56 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 55 / 0.27 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 57 / 0.57 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 56 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 62 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 56 / 0.75 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 50 / /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.03 7.69 124 3.52 57 6.22 14.06
MODESTO 0.03 6.31 115 3.25 59 5.49 13.11
MERCED 0.64 5.99 114 1.99 38 5.24 12.50
MADERA 0.37 4.47 83 1.31 24 5.38 12.02
FRESNO 0.30 3.99 85 1.23 26 4.71 11.50
HANFORD 0.54 3.32 72 1.68 37 4.60 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.57 2.18 84 0.88 34 2.60 6.47
BISHOP 1.48 3.22 139 0.20 9 2.31 5.18
SALINAS 0.04 5.59 105 2.13 40 5.32 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.64 6.35 122 2.16 42 5.19 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.93 6.38 115 1.95 35 5.54 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon, January 18