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Forecast

January 22, 2019/pm report

January 22, 2019

Summary:  Other than some high, thin clouds which are streaming from north to south along the eastern rim of upper level high pressure off shore, skies are mostly clear.  The upslope clouds in Kern County finally mixed out during the early afternoon hours.  Currently, we are in a north/northwest flow which is squeezed between the aforementioned off shore high and a trough of low pressure over the interior west.  Even though the air mass has modified aloft somewhat with the freezing level now up to 8,000 feet, the air on the valley floor remains relatively cool.  With mostly clear skies, good radiational cooling will occur tonight with frost in many areas.

 

As the high off shore slowly expands eastward, the warm air inversion will slowly strengthen, creating the necessary ingredients for increasing amounts of fog and low clouds.  The fog will probably be somewhat patchy tonight, but for Thursday morning and beyond, the fog and low clouds will become more widespread.  In fact, during the second half of the weekend, some models project the center of the upper high will be just about right overhead, really putting a clamp on the valley.  As you would imagine, the temperatures will be governed by the amount of fog and any clearing on any given day.  On days with some afternoon sunshine, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s by Thursday.  In locations with little or no sunshine, readings will only climb into the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

 

Most models show the high remaining in place over the western U.S. through about the 30th.  About February 1st, models continue to point towards the high breaking down, allowing a moist westerly flow to break through.  Within this flow there could be waves of low pressure which could result in significant precipitation for central California, including higher elevation snow.  We do seem to have a trend developing on models, so it’s time to take this information a bit more seriously.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional periods of high, thin clouds and areas of dense fog after midnight, it will be mostly clear tonight.  Areas of fog Wednesday morning with sunshine and some high clouds during the afternoon.  The fog will become more widespread Wednesday night and Thursday morning with clearing in most areas during the afternoon.  Look for widespread night and morning fog and low clouds nights and  mornings Friday through Tuesday with possible clearing in some areas during the afternoons.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 29/56/31/57 Reedley 31/55/33/57 Dinuba 30/55/32/56
Porterville 31/57/32/60 Lindsay 29/56/31/59 Delano 32/58/33/60
Bakersfield 34/61/36/62 Taft 37/60/40/62 Arvin 31/59/33/62
Lamont 31/59/33/62 Pixley 30/58/32/60 Tulare 30/56/31/57
Woodlake 30/57/32/58 Hanford 32/56/33/58 Orosi 29/56/31/58

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Friday.

 

Rain:  It still appears dry conditions will prevail through possibly the end of the month.  There does seem to be a trend developing in the high breaking down about February 1st, allowing a moist, westerly flow to break through.  On paper, there are low pressure systems embedded within this flow which could possibly lead to significant rain and snow to northern and central California.

 

Frost Discussion: Tonight will be the chilliest night we’ve seen in a while.  By the standards of this mild winter we’ve been experiencing it may seem cold, but actually it’s almost typical for the latter part of January.  Coldest locations tonight will chill into the 27 to 29 degree range with most locations between 29 and 34. 

 

The inversion tonight will be halfway decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

There will be some high, thin clouds streaming overhead from time to time which will be visible by that almost-full moon, but in all likelihood,  they will be too thin to really matter.  I would anticipate very similar conditions Thursday morning with perhaps a degree or two of moderation, at best.

 

Once we draw closer to the weekend, the inversion will become tighter and tighter above the valley floor.  In fact, during the second half of the weekend, the off shore high is projected to be just about right overhead, really clamping down on the situation.  Each day that goes by should see more and more fog developing, possibly lasting through the day, especially towards the center of the valley.

 

As more and more moisture and higher dew points take over, temperatures by Friday morning will rise to above freezing and continue thereafter.

 

More models are picking up on the possibility of a moist westerly flow breaking into California beginning about the 1st, resulting in well above freezing conditions for the first week in February, if all goes as planned.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

30

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

30

McFarland

30

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

28

Famoso

31

Madera

29

Belridge

29

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

34

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

31

Jasmine

31

Arvin

31

Lamont

32

Plainview

30

Mettler

34

Edison

31

Maricopa

29

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next report: Wednesday morning/January 23