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Forecast

January 22, 2019/report

Today’s afternoon report will be delayed due to circumstances beyond our control.  We apologize for the inconvenience.

 

 

January 22, 2019

Summary: Over the past few hours, most of the upslope clouds, which, in part, are still banked up against the Tehachapi Mountains, are dissipating with time as drier air moves in aloft.  The overall air  mass is still fairly chilly with the freezing last night over Vandenberg at 6,800 feet and 5,700 feet over Oakland.  That freezing level will begin to shoot up rapidly over the next few days as upper level high pressure off shore begins to expand eastward, eventually into the western one-third of the United States.  The high will also build a ridge northward into the Gulf of Alaska.

 

The main emphasis from this point on will be fog and low clouds and trying to discern how extensive they become as well as their effect on temperatures.  For now, out of concern that it will become more widespread each morning that goes by, by Friday some areas may not see any sunshine at all.   In fact, over the weekend the aforementioned high will be centered right over northern and central California.  With warm descending air in association with the high, a sharp warm air inversion will develop, creating ideal conditions for the formation of the valley’s infamous Tule fog and low clouds.

 

Models going out through roughly the 29th show the high remaining over the eastern Pacific and most of the western U.S.  Medium range models beginning about the 31st are calling for a possible change in the pattern which, in theory, could result in a moist westerly flow, possibly bringing rain back to central California.  We’ll see in the coming days if a trend develops but for the next week or more expect stable conditions with lots of fog and low clouds.

 

 

Today’s afternoon report will be delayed due to circumstances beyond our control.  We apologize for the inconvenience.

 

 

Forecast: Becoming mostly clear today.  Mostly clear tonight with areas of dense fog developing.  Areas of dense fog and low clouds Wednesday morning, becoming mostly clear in the afternoon.  Widespread fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clearing Thursday through Tuesday.  Temperatures will be governed by the extent of the fog, how early it clears, etc.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 54/30/55/31/55 Reedley 54/31/54/33/56 Dinuba 52/30/53/31/56
Porterville 55/31/55/32/57 Lindsay 53/30/54/31/57 Delano 55/32/56/33/58
Bakersfield 54/34/58/36/61 Taft 57/39/59/41/62 Arvin 56/33/59/36/61
Lamont 55/33/59/35/61 Pixley 54/30/54/32/58 Tulare 54/29/54/31/57
Woodlake 54/31/54/32/57 Hanford 55/32/56/33/59 Orosi 54/29/55/31/57

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

38/56

Saturday

AM fog/PM sun

42/55

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

42/57

Monday

AM fog/PM sun

43/56

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

44/56

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 29 through February 4:  This model indicates there’s a possible change somewhere around February 1 which, in theory, could bring precipitation back to central California.  This same model also indicates a generally west to southwest flow, meaning temperatures will be above average.

 

January:  This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies.  There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.

 

January, February, March:  The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days.  Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.

 

Winds:  Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH through Friday with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather through the weekend and well into next week.  Some medium range models are projecting the high will break down about the 1st, allowing a moist westerly flow and possibly resulting in precipitation during the first week in February.

 

Today’s afternoon report will be delayed due to circumstances beyond our control.  We apologize for the inconvenience.

 

Frost Discussion: Most of the upslope clouds that were covering much of the south valley have dissipated with the exception of pockets based at around 3,500 feet in Kern County.  These clouds will dissipate during the morning.

Mostly clear skies will prevail the next couple of nights, leading to some decent radiational cooling.  The air mass is relatively cold, but certainly nothing unusual for this time of year.  Low to  mid 30s will be widespread tonight and again Wednesday night with the coldest unprotected low lying locations dipping down to 27 to 29 for a few hours before sunrise.

Tonight’s inversion will be weak to moderate with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 3 to 6 degrees warmer, especially during the early morning hours.  I would anticipate similar conditions coming up Thursday morning, however it’s possible dew points by then will have begun to creep up and, as a stronger inversion develops above the valley floor, fog and/or low clouds will become more and  more widespread.

By the time we get into the weekend, it’s possible the low clouds might not even clear during the afternoons in some areas.  Upper level high pressure will continue through at least about the 29th if models are correct.  A change in the  overall pattern will occur about the end of the month which could, in theory, allowing a moist westerly flow to break through.  This could lead to an increasing chance of rain and no chance of frost.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

30

Ivanhoe

29

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

30

McFarland

29

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

28

Famoso

32

Madera

30

Belridge

29

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

29

Lindcove Hillside

34

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

31

Arvin

32

Lamont

31

Plainview

30

Mettler

34

Edison

31

Maricopa

29

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern, Mid to upper 30s.

Humidity: Porterville: 65%/100%, Bakersfield: 60%/90%

Actual Humidity January 21, 2019: Delano, 94%/54%, Porterville, 96%/62%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .30, Parlier .31, Blackwell .34, Lindcove .28, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .27, Delano .37 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 53, Delano 52

 

Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 56/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1133 -426

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 50.0 +5.3

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 4.42 season. or -.55, Month to Date: 2.09 +.59

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  2.27, or -.47.  Month to Date: .97 +.19

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 516,  Parlier, 528 ,  Arvin, 461 Shafter, 539  Stratford, 526, Delano 529, Lindcove, 802, Porterville, 1090

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:07 am  Sunset: 5:15 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:05

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  59 /  46 / 0.11 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  56 /  47 / 0.33 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  57 /  43 / 0.01 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  57 /  35 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  51 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  55 /  45 /    M /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  56 /  38 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  55 /  40 / 0.10 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  58 /  45 /    M /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.91   121    3.66    56     6.56    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.35   109    3.38    58     5.82    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.12   110    2.16    39     5.56    12.50

MADERA                           T    4.58    81    1.43    25     5.67    12.02

FRESNO                           T    4.42    89    1.36    27     4.97    11.50

HANFORD                          T    3.33    69    1.72    36     4.80    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                      T    2.27    83    1.03    38     2.74     6.47

BISHOP                        0.02    3.46   143    0.20     8     2.42     5.18

SALINAS                       0.15    5.80   103    2.22    39     5.65    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.36   115    2.20    40     5.53    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.41   109    1.97    34     5.88    13.95

 

Next report:  Tuesday afternoon or possibly early evening/January 22