Today’s afternoon report will be delayed due to circumstances beyond our control. We apologize for the inconvenience.
January 22, 2019
Summary: Over the past few hours, most of the upslope clouds, which, in part, are still banked up against the Tehachapi Mountains, are dissipating with time as drier air moves in aloft. The overall air mass is still fairly chilly with the freezing last night over Vandenberg at 6,800 feet and 5,700 feet over Oakland. That freezing level will begin to shoot up rapidly over the next few days as upper level high pressure off shore begins to expand eastward, eventually into the western one-third of the United States. The high will also build a ridge northward into the Gulf of Alaska.
The main emphasis from this point on will be fog and low clouds and trying to discern how extensive they become as well as their effect on temperatures. For now, out of concern that it will become more widespread each morning that goes by, by Friday some areas may not see any sunshine at all. In fact, over the weekend the aforementioned high will be centered right over northern and central California. With warm descending air in association with the high, a sharp warm air inversion will develop, creating ideal conditions for the formation of the valley’s infamous Tule fog and low clouds.
Models going out through roughly the 29th show the high remaining over the eastern Pacific and most of the western U.S. Medium range models beginning about the 31st are calling for a possible change in the pattern which, in theory, could result in a moist westerly flow, possibly bringing rain back to central California. We’ll see in the coming days if a trend develops but for the next week or more expect stable conditions with lots of fog and low clouds.
Today’s afternoon report will be delayed due to circumstances beyond our control. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Forecast: Becoming mostly clear today. Mostly clear tonight with areas of dense fog developing. Areas of dense fog and low clouds Wednesday morning, becoming mostly clear in the afternoon. Widespread fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clearing Thursday through Tuesday. Temperatures will be governed by the extent of the fog, how early it clears, etc.
Short Term:
Madera 54/30/55/31/55 | Reedley 54/31/54/33/56 | Dinuba 52/30/53/31/56 | |
Porterville 55/31/55/32/57 | Lindsay 53/30/54/31/57 | Delano 55/32/56/33/58 | |
Bakersfield 54/34/58/36/61 | Taft 57/39/59/41/62 | Arvin 56/33/59/36/61 | |
Lamont 55/33/59/35/61 | Pixley 54/30/54/32/58 | Tulare 54/29/54/31/57 | |
Woodlake 54/31/54/32/57 | Hanford 55/32/56/33/59 | Orosi 54/29/55/31/57 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 38/56 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 42/55 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 42/57 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 43/56 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 44/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 29 through February 4: This model indicates there’s a possible change somewhere around February 1 which, in theory, could bring precipitation back to central California. This same model also indicates a generally west to southwest flow, meaning temperatures will be above average.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH through Friday with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather through the weekend and well into next week. Some medium range models are projecting the high will break down about the 1st, allowing a moist westerly flow and possibly resulting in precipitation during the first week in February.
Today’s afternoon report will be delayed due to circumstances beyond our control. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Frost Discussion: Most of the upslope clouds that were covering much of the south valley have dissipated with the exception of pockets based at around 3,500 feet in Kern County. These clouds will dissipate during the morning.
Mostly clear skies will prevail the next couple of nights, leading to some decent radiational cooling. The air mass is relatively cold, but certainly nothing unusual for this time of year. Low to mid 30s will be widespread tonight and again Wednesday night with the coldest unprotected low lying locations dipping down to 27 to 29 for a few hours before sunrise.
Tonight’s inversion will be weak to moderate with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 3 to 6 degrees warmer, especially during the early morning hours. I would anticipate similar conditions coming up Thursday morning, however it’s possible dew points by then will have begun to creep up and, as a stronger inversion develops above the valley floor, fog and/or low clouds will become more and more widespread.
By the time we get into the weekend, it’s possible the low clouds might not even clear during the afternoons in some areas. Upper level high pressure will continue through at least about the 29th if models are correct. A change in the overall pattern will occur about the end of the month which could, in theory, allowing a moist westerly flow to break through. This could lead to an increasing chance of rain and no chance of frost.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
30 |
Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
Arvin
32 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
34 |
Edison
31 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 65%/100%, Bakersfield: 60%/90%
Actual Humidity January 21, 2019: Delano, 94%/54%, Porterville, 96%/62%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .30, Parlier .31, Blackwell .34, Lindcove .28, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .27, Delano .37 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 53, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 56/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1133 -426
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 50.0 +5.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.42 season. or -.55, Month to Date: 2.09 +.59
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.27, or -.47. Month to Date: .97 +.19
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 516, Parlier, 528 , Arvin, 461 Shafter, 539 Stratford, 526, Delano 529, Lindcove, 802, Porterville, 1090
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 5:15 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 46 / 0.11 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / 0.33 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 43 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 35 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 51 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 45 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 55 / 40 / 0.10 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 45 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 7.91 121 3.66 56 6.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.35 109 3.38 58 5.82 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.12 110 2.16 39 5.56 12.50
MADERA T 4.58 81 1.43 25 5.67 12.02
FRESNO T 4.42 89 1.36 27 4.97 11.50
HANFORD T 3.33 69 1.72 36 4.80 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 2.27 83 1.03 38 2.74 6.47
BISHOP 0.02 3.46 143 0.20 8 2.42 5.18
SALINAS 0.15 5.80 103 2.22 39 5.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.36 115 2.20 40 5.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.41 109 1.97 34 5.88 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon or possibly early evening/January 22