January 23, 2019
Summary: As of the time of this writing, there was quite a bit of ground fog up the center of the valley from roughly the Kern County line on the south to extreme southern Fresno County. This will lift into a low overcast and dissipate by late morning or early afternoon. Temperatures this morning are running anywhere from 4 to 9 degrees colder than 24 hours ago. Above the valley floor, it’s a different story however as many locations from 5,000 feet and above are reporting temperatures 6 to 14 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time.
Upper level high pressure continues to cover the eastern Pacific Ocean. Currently, California is flanked on the far eastern side of the high which keeps the north/northwest flow aloft going. As we get closer to the weekend, the high center will either end up just off shore or even over California, allowing temperatures above the valley floor to rise even higher above average than they currently are. Readings on the valley floor will be determined in part by the amount of fog and/or low clouds and how widespread it becomes.
Dry weather will continue for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. There will be little weak upper air disturbances riding over the top of the high before sliding southeastward into the Great Basin with little impact on central California.
By the middle of next week, some models show the high shifting a bit farther off shore, possibly allowing a cooler and drier air mass into California. During this period, a fairly mild modified arctic air mass will be over the Great Basin, but for now it does not look like it will be a frost or freeze threat.
Medium range models for the first week in February aren’t as strong on the possibility of rain coming back to central California. In fact, the ridge is shown holding firm for the first four or five days of the month.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear today after the ground fog burns off. Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds each morning through next Wednesday with clearing, at least in most areas, during the afternoons.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/33/59/35/61 | Reedley 58/33/60/35/62 | Dinuba 57/32/59/35/61 | |
| Porterville 59/32/60/34/62 | Lindsay 59/31/60/34/62 | Delano 60/33/62/35/64 | |
| Bakersfield 62/39/64/41/65 | Taft 60/42/64/43/66 | Arvin 61/32/64/36/66 | |
| Lamont 60/33/64/36/65 | Pixley 60/33/61/35/63 | Tulare 58/31/59/34/62 | |
| Woodlake 59/32/60/34/62 | Hanford 58/35/59/36/62 | Orosi 59/32/60/34/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 37/62 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 37/58 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 38/58 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 36/59 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 35/61 |
Two Week Outlook: January 30 through February 5: This model indicates there’s a possible change somewhere around February 1 which, in theory, could bring precipitation back to central California. This same model also indicates a generally west to southwest flow, meaning temperatures will be above average.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH through Saturday with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: it still appears we will remain dry through the end of January. Models which had pointed to the possibility of wet weather returning the first week of February have, at least in part, backed off on that possibility. For now, the best course of action is to call for dry weather for the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: As of 6:30 this morning, lows were generally running from 29 to 34 with the vast majority of locations reporting 30 to 32. For tonight, I would look for similar conditions to possibly a degree or two warmer as a great deal of warming is taking place above the valley floor.
Dew points this afternoon are expected to be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s, similar to where they were yesterday afternoon.
Coldest lows tonight will range from 29 to 31 with most locations between 31 and 36.
The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Most, and possibly all, locations will be above freezing Friday morning as dew points begin to creep up. Daytime highs should also begin to work their way up, assuming fog doesn’t become too widespread. Expect above freezing conditions over the weekend and at least through Tuesday. Some models are moving the high a bit off shore Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, possibly creating an off shore flow both at the surface and aloft. This could result in a marginally cooler air mass, but more importantly drier. For now, it doesn’t look like a particular problem, just something to watch over the next several days.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea PotDome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 50%/100%, Bakersfield: 60%/80%
Actual Humidity January 22, 2019: Delano, 99%/62%, Porterville, 97%/61%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .32, Parlier .31, Blackwell .37, Lindcove .30, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .29, Delano .36 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 53, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 72/25. Average Temperatures: 56/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1153 -425
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 49.8 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.42 season. or -.61, Month to Date: 2.09 +.53
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.27, or -.50. Month to Date: .97 +.16
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 532, Parlier, 542 , Arvin, 469 Shafter, 551 Stratford, 540, Delano 537, Lindcove, 818, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 5:16 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 55 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 55 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 7.91 119 3.73 56 6.64 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.35 107 3.41 58 5.91 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.12 109 2.17 38 5.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.58 80 1.43 25 5.74 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.42 88 1.36 27 5.03 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.33 69 1.72 35 4.85 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.27 82 1.03 37 2.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.46 141 0.20 8 2.45 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.80 101 2.24 39 5.73 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.36 113 2.20 39 5.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.41 107 1.97 33 5.97 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/January 23