January 27, 2019
Summary: Even despite high clouds over the valley overnight, there a good amount of ground fog, mainly towards the center of the valley north of Kern County. The fog will do its usual repeat performance of burning off during the late morning and early afternoon. Upper level high pressure this morning has drifted southward to just off the southern California coast. The high is still very close so well above average afternoon temperatures will continue. The flow aloft has changed a bit because of the different position of the high and is now out of the west northwest which will transport mid and high level clouds over the region from time to time. A weak disturbance will move through the high Wednesday night and Thursday for a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers. However, nothing significant is expected. Models still can’t seem to come up with a consistent solution for the weather pattern for this coming weekend. There is enough information to go on to put a reasonable chance of rain in the forecast for Friday night and Saturday. But unlike previous models, a parade of storms does not show up. Instead, a ridge of high pressure is expected to become reestablished behind this system. In the meantime, the arctic air mass is making its move through Canada and into the northern Midwest. By Wednesday and Thursday mornings, temperatures in places like Minnesota and North Dakota will be pushing fifty below and I hesitate to think what the wind chill will be like. These air masses have been cooperating with California quite nicely. There is some indication we may have a northerly flow along the eastern side of high pressure stretching from British Columbia to southern California which could transport colder air into California. But we’re talking seven to eight days out, so a lot could change in the meantime. Otherwise, the outlook for next week and beyond is still favorable for periods of rain for central and southern California.
Forecast: areas of night and morning fog, mainly towards the center of the valley. Otherwise it will be partly cloudy through Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday night with a slight chance of sprinkles Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly cloudy Friday night through Saturday with a chance of rain. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/38/63/46/66 | Reedley 65/39/63/45/65 | Dinuba 64/38/63/44/64 | |
| Porterville 66/39/62/44/67 | Lindsay 65/38/62/44/66 | Delano 66/40/63/46/66 | |
| Bakersfield 68/45/66/47/66 | Taft 67/47/66/47/68 | Arvin 68/41/66/46/68 | |
| Lamont 66/42/66/46/68 | Pixley 65/39/64/44/65 | Tulare 64/38/62/43/65 | |
| Woodlake 65/35/62/44/65 | Hanford 65/40/64/46/65 | Orosi 64/39/65/45/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 47/65 |
Thursday
Mostly cloudy 48/66 |
Friday
Chance of rain 50/67 |
Saturday
Chance of rain 49/65 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 44/64 |
Two Week Outlook: February 2 through February 8: This model shows the highest risk of precipitation anywhere in the lower 48 right at central and southern California. With a west to southwest flow and a potentially juicy air mass, temperatures should run well above average.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH through Wednesday with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: It’s possible we could experience a few isolated light showers or sprinkles Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak disturbance tries to push through the high. Measurable rain at any given location is unlikely. Some but not all models show a low pressure system trying to push through central California late Friday and Saturday. Model consistency on this is very poor, so the key word here is chance. Some models also indicate a chance of more rain by the early part of next week and beyond. The new two week model is indicating there’s a better than even chance of rain for the bottom half of the state later that week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 weeks.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Hanford: 60%/100%, Bakersfield: 50%/95%
Actual Humidity January 26, 2019: Delano, 100%/56%, Porterville, 99%/55%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .38, Parlier .44, Blackwell .47, Lindcove .38, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .35, Delano .43 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 51, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 57/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1221 -433
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 49.5 +4.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.42 season. or -.88, Month to Date: 2.09 +.26
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.27, or -.65. Month to Date: .97 +.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 584, Parlier, 590 , Arvin, 516 Shafter, 597 Stratford, 576, Delano 591, Lindcove, 872, Porterville, 1177
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 am Sunset: 5:20 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:12
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 67 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 7.91 113 3.99 57 7.00 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.35 102 3.55 57 6.25 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.12 104 2.29 39 5.87 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.58 77 1.55 26 5.94 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.42 83 1.64 31 5.30 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.33 67 1.78 36 5.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.27 78 1.10 38 2.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.46 136 0.20 8 2.55 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.80 96 2.51 41 6.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.36 107 2.30 39 5.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.41 101 2.02 32 6.32 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/January 28