January 28, 2019
Summary: Variable mid and high level clouds continue to stream in from the southwest. These clouds are subtropical, basically spin offs from a rapidly weakening low well off the Baja coast. Periods of mid and high level clouds will continue to stream over the valley through Wednesday then a compact low pressure system will slide down the coast, almost on shore, spreading showers into the valley later Wednesday night through Thursday evening. This will be one of those coastal huggers, so if it remains as close to the coast as models currently indicate, the chance of rain will be good. However, if it tracks too far off shore, the chance of precipitation will be greatly reduced. One thing is for sure, this low will break down the high which has shielded us from recent Pacific storms.
A rather vigorous trough of low pressure will dig southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska Friday night and Saturday. Some models project this to be a major winter storm with the possibility of heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada and possible rainfall totals on the valley floor exceeding .50 north of Kern County.
A second and even colder system will skirt just off the Canadian coast then drop south/southeast into California Sunday and Monday. This will again increase the chance of showers over central California with lowering snow levels.
Once we get past Monday, it appears an upper high will build along the coast, deflecting any more storminess to our north for several days of dry weather. The new two week model out this afternoon is indicating the southern one-third of California will have a better than even chance of above average rainfall with above average precipitation over the remainder of California. If this model is correct, we will continue to have below average temperatures.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness at times through Wednesday. Cloudy Wednesday night with showers becoming likely after midnight and continuing through Thursday. Showers tapering off Thursday evening with mostly cloudy skies Thursday night and Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon with a chance of rain by evening. Rain likely Friday night through Saturday at times. Showers likely Saturday night with a chance of showers Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 43/63/44/63 | Reedley 42/63/44/64 | Dinuba 42/62/44/62 | |
| Porterville 42/64/44/65 | Lindsay 42/64/43/65 | Delano 45/64/44/65 | |
| Bakersfield 49/66/49/67 | Taft 50/66/50/67 | Arvin 44/67/46/67 | |
| Lamont 45/66/47/66 | Pixley 42/63/44/64 | Tulare 42/62/45/64 | |
| Woodlake 41/63/44/64 | Hanford 43/64/45/65 | Orosi 42/63/44/64 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Wednesday then a rather compact low will skirt the northern and central coast later Wednesday night through Thursday evening. The highest possibility of precipitation will be along the west side of the valley as models project this system will be a coastal hugger. Still, if guidance is correct, the entire valley should pick up some precipitation, perhaps .10 to .25 or so. Dry weather will return Thursday evening and continue until roughly midday Friday. A rather vigorous trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska will dive southeastward, spreading precipitation over northern and central California Friday afternoon and night with periods of rain continuing Saturday, tapering off into showers Saturday night. models portray this system as potentially dropping more than .50 north of Kern County with heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. A second system, this one even colder, will begin just off shore from British Columbia, skirting the coast into California Sunday through Monday for a continuation of showers. After Monday, it looks like high pressure will take over for several days for a return to dry weather Tuesday through Friday.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week. A considerably colder air mass with origins in the Gulf of Alaska will dive southeastward into California this weekend with another possibly even colder low moving in late Sunday and Monday. For now, it appears low to mid 30s could occur beginning Tuesday morning and lasting through Thursday or Friday. We’re still talking seven to nine days out so this is very much a tentative projection. We’ll tweak this as we move forward through the week.
Next report: Tuesday morning/January 29